Racing Tips

Pakenham Racing Tips: Thursday, November 12th

Victorian racing takes place at Racing.com Park Pakenham on Thursday night and Tim Geers is keen to bet in four of the nine races on the card!

by
Tim Geers
12 November 2020

Victorian racing takes place at Racing.com Park Pakenham on Thursday evening, with a nine-race card on the course proper.

The track is rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 6m.

There looks to be a few standout bets on the card, ranging from short-priced favourites to one at $71!

Keen to bet in Race 1, Race 3, Race 6 and Race 7. Analysis of those races can be found below!

Race 1

Mcmahons Mdn Plate (2500m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Mcmahons Mdn Plate (2500m) 5:25pm (AEDT)
1. Captain Meringue (5) J: Joe Bowditch (59.5kg) T: M J Enright	12	15	12.4	14
2. Jakk's Right (2) J: Jake Noonan (59.5kg) T: C W Little	12	11	10.8	10
3. Think Stars (4) J: Ms Lucinda Boyd (59.5kg) T: Steven Pateman	46	51	53	51
4. Twilight Zone (1) J: Michael Carson (59.5kg) T: B I Stanaway	61	81	87	71
5. Barely A Challenge (8) J: Rhys Mcleod (58kg) T: P G Carey	15	15	14.4	16
6. Mr Joobs (7) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: P Stokes	1.85	1.85	1.86	1.95
7. Penong (9) J: Jason Maskiell (58kg) T: Travis Doudle	7.5	7	7.6	6.5
8. Bloodwood (3) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: Scott Cameron	5	5.5	4.6	4.8
9. Tina Sparkle (6) J: Luke Nolen (57.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	23	26	29.5	23

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The favourite (6) Mr Joobs looks exceptionally hard to beat and one of the better bets on the card. Even though 2500m races are hard to get excited about but I really don’t see him getting beat here. He’s had three starts to date and the best of those was last time out when stepped up to 2060m, where he finished 2^nd to Exalted Crown. He steps up to 2500m tonight and that should only suit him. Phillip Stokes has an outstanding record on his home track at Pakenham, operating at 25% in the last 12 months, with four winners from nine runners this season. Michael Poy rides at 32% for the stable and at $2.25 I’m keen to get stuck in early.

Tip: (6) Mr Joobs $2.25 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Mr Joobs

Race 2

Sportsbet Same Race Multi Mdn (1400m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Sportsbet Same Race Multi Mdn (1400m) 6:00pm (AEDT)
1. Atypical (7) J: Luke Nolen (59.5kg) T: C W Mcdonald	34	51	35	34
2. Bodrum (10) J: Ben Allen (59.5kg) T: E Jusufovic
3. Brecon Kid (3) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Tara Cochrane	151	201	131	151
4. Clifton Street (4) J: Lewis German (59.5kg) T: Ms J Mawer	46	61	53	51
5. High Maintenance (11) J: Brian Higgins (59.5kg) T: Matthew Brown	41	61	45	51
6. Magnetic Dash (9) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: M J Mehegan	6	6	6.1	5
7. Pommetier (6) J: Jake Noonan (59.5kg) T: A W Noonan	35	41	36	31
8. Takahe (8) J: Campbell Rawiller (59.5kg) T: B I Stanaway	126	151	121	151
9. Two Shots (1) J: Jason Maskiell (59.5kg) T: Craig Blackshaw	34	31	35	23
10. Cutting Loose (5) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: M D Moroney	27	26	27.5	26
11. Visualising (12) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: G Eurell	2.2	2.25	2.2	2.3
12. Arabian Hussey (2) J: Jason Benbow (56kg) T: Caroline Jennings	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.7

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 3

Apm Group Mdn Plate (1400m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Apm Group Mdn Plate (1400m) 6:30pm (AEDT)
1. Beau Mec (10) J: Michael Walker (59.5kg) T: M Croston & G Gilmour	31	34	35	34
2. Hasseltoff (3) J: Michael Rodd (59.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	2.3	2.5	2.3	2.5
3. I Am A Hit (9) J: Rhys Mcleod (59.5kg) T: Nick Ryan	14	15	13.8	15
4. Mighty Feat (2) J: Luke Nolen (59.5kg) T: P G Moody	6.5	6.5	6.1	6.5
5. Stackhat (5) J: Ms Emily Brown (59.5kg) T: Greg Hayes	151	151	201	151
6. Tuffask (1) J: Jason Maskiell (59.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	19	18	17.8	18
7. Ain't A Doubt (6) J: Brian Higgins (58kg) T: Richard Laming	91	101	93	126
8. Speed Rock (12) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	27	31	27.5	26
9. Black Mirror (11) J: Lewis German (57.5kg) T: R J Besanko	12	13	11.2	12
10. Dancing With Fire (4) J: Michael Carson (57.5kg) T: B I Stanaway	201	151	261	151
11. Seneca Falls (7) J: Michael Dee (57.5kg) T: M C Kent
12. Fan Club (8) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: P Stokes	3.4	3.1	3.05	3.1

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Keen on two horses here. Another Stokes runner that looks very hard to beat is (12) Fan Club. She debuted at Cranbourne where she settled back in the field and ran home strongly into 3^rd. She was backed from $12 into $7 that night, so clearly there is some opinion that she has ability. She steps up from 1200m to 1400m tonight which looks ideal, on her home deck with Poy again in the saddle.

The one at slightly better value to also have something on is (4) Mighty Feat for Moody and Nolen. Nolen actually rode Fan Club last start but jumps off to ride Mighty Feat tonight. She went very close first up at Cranbourne but failed last start after sitting wide without cover throughout. The nose roll comes off, the blinkers go back on and from the good draw, she should bounce back.

The favourite (2) Hasseltoff is once again very short in the market. He went down as the $1.80 favourite first up at Sale and that’s not the first time in his career he’s been beaten at short odds. He’s had enough chances with me so at that price, I’m keen to bet around him and if I get it wrong, so be it.

Tip: (12) Fan Club $3.20 Unibet

Value: (4) Mighty Feat $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Unibet, 0.75 units WIN Mighty Feat

Race 4

Austrim Civil Mdn Plate (1600m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Austrim Civil Mdn Plate (1600m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Domesday Project (4) J: Jake Noonan (59.5kg) T: A R Mcgregor
2. Master Ryan (12) J: Ms Jade Darose (59.5kg) T: M S Hibbs	26	31	32	26
3. Pacific Crest (1) J: Campbell Rawiller (59.5kg) T: B I Stanaway
4. Willetts (2) J: Ben Allen (59.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
5. Canadian Rockies (10) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: G M Begg	8.5	7.5	7.9	7.5
6. Handball (6) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	14	15	14.6	16
7. Sly Corner (11) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	3.8	3.5	3.35	3.5
8. The Spaniard (3) J: Jason Benbow (58kg) T: P G Moody	3.1	3.3	3.15	3.2
9. Pouvoir De Soie (7) J: Joe Bowditch (57.5kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell	4.6	4.2	5.1	5
10. Rich Dane (8) J: Lachlan Neindorf (57.5kg) T: Jerome Hunter	23	26	32	23
11. Plucky Pirouette (9) J: Arron Lynch (56kg) T: Caroline Jennings	9	10	7.9	9.5
12. Seduce (13) J: Unknown (56kg) T: D T O'brien
13. Villager (5) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (59.5kg) T: Ms A Blackburn	126	151	201	151

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 5

Ontoit Mdn Plate (1200m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Ontoit Mdn Plate (1200m) 7:30pm (AEDT)
1. Blissful Spirit (8) J: Liam Riordan (59.5kg) T: Len Ablett
2. Dragon Time (7) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: F Stockdale	10	11	9.3	11
3. There's Always One (9) J: Michael Poy (59.5kg) T: Jim Cerchi Jnr
4. Uranium (1) J: Patrick Moloney (59.5kg) T: G B Andrews	11	11	13.2	9
5. Field Of Roses (4) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: P Stokes	3.1	2.8	2.75	2.9
6. Loveplanet (3) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: C J Waller	2.05	2.2	2.05	2.15
7. Smug Sister (10) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (57.5kg) T: John R Allen	61	67	83	61
8. Special Treats (13) J: Michael Walker (57.5kg) T: Mark C Webb
9. Allmylife (2) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: M M Laurie
10. Benetti (6) J: Joe Bowditch (56kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell	18	19	16.4	17
11. Naseema (11) J: Jason Maskiell (56kg) T: Ms W Kelly
12. Polina (5) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	9	8	7.7	7
13. Devine Tilly (12) J: Jason Benbow (57.5kg) T: P E Kramer	151	151	241	151

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 6

Battery Zone Hcp (C1) (1200m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Battery Zone Hcp (C1) (1200m) 8:00pm (AEDT)
1. Shevrolet (9) J: Ben Allen (62kg) T: M C Kent	7	6	6.3	6
2. Tycoon Thunder (2) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: S P Nichols	5	4.8	4.65	5
3. King Magnus (11) J: Matthew Allen (60.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	19	19	17.4	19
4. Use Your Voice (15) J: Liam Riordan (60kg) T: Robert Hickmott
5. Mandragorian (7) J: Jake Noonan (59.5kg) T: Adam Mccabe	26	31	32	26
6. Smuggler (14) J: Jason Maskiell (59.5kg) T: Craig Blackshaw	19	26	17.4	21
7. Credlin (10) J: Michael Dee (59kg) T: E Jusufovic	15	14	16.2	14
8. Deep Breath (8) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: G Eurell	17	17	15.4	17
9. Toffee Doll (5) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: M M Laurie	3.7	3.8	3.55	3.7
10. All Price (17) J: Lachlan Neindorf (58.5kg) T: Jerome Hunter	8	9.5	7.8	8.5
11. Win Fall (1) J: Michael Poy (58.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer	10	10	10.2	10
12. Annie's Missile (6) J: Rhys Mcleod (57.5kg) T: P G Carey	15	16	14.6	16
13. Maazle (12) J: Arron Lynch (59kg) T: Andrew Homann	46	61	53	61
14. The Fred Express (4) J: Jason Maskiell (59kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
15. Merge (16) J: Michael Carson (57kg) T: G M Carson
16. Rebel Tantrum (3) J: Jason Benbow (56kg) T: Craig Blackshaw
17. Maldestro (13) J: Unknown (56kg) T: A W Keenan

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(1) Shevrolet carries a big weight first up tonight but he’s got a bit of class and may get away with it in a winnable race. He’s had two starts – he won on debut at Moonee Valley and then ran 4^th at Sandown five months later. He’s clearly had some issues as he’s had another four months off leading into his first run back tonight. Mick Kent has a 29% strike rate here at Pakenham and this is his only runner of the night so I’m expecting him to go close despite the big weight.

The other runner in the race I’ve got some interest in is (12) Maazle at $71. Trainer Andrew Homann has only recently returned to training and he’s been getting consistent results, with four winners and six placings from 19 starters this season. In fact, he’s had four winners and five placings from his last 12 runners. This horse is new to his stable and has his first run back from a spell tonight. He won first up last prep and he’s definitely worth throwing in the numbers at enormous odds.

Tip: (1) Shevrolet $4.40 Bluebet

Value: (12) Maazle $71 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Shevrolet, 0.25 units E/W Maazle

Race 7

Kentucky Equine Research-Bm70 (1200m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Kentucky Equine Research-Bm70 (1200m) 8:30pm (AEDT)
1. Sir Kalahad (3) J: Ms Emily Brown (64kg) T: Gavin Bedggood	10	11	11.2	11
2. Redefine (2) J: Harry Grace (62kg) T: Ms R Frost	126	151	191	151
3. Eagle Spirit (8) J: Jason Maskiell (60.5kg) T: Craig Blackshaw	67	91	93	81
4. Bianconi Magic (11) J: Lachlan Neindorf (60kg) T: Jerome Hunter	17	19	15.6	18
5. Designer Chef (5) J: Arron Lynch (60kg) T: Mark C Webb	9.5	10	10.2	10
6. Paperboy (4) J: Brian Higgins (59kg) T: J W Price	13	14	12.6	14
7. Snows Bro (10) J: Michael Rodd (59kg) T: Scott Cameron	18	16	19.2	15
8. Cliffs Of Belaura (1) J: Jamie Mott (58.5kg) T: John Mcardle	10	8.5	11.2	8
9. Sassy Salitage (7) J: Lewis German (58.5kg) T: G Eurell	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.7
10. Shadow Goddess (9) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: Patrick Payne	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.4
11. Kyzamba (13) J: Michael Poy (57.5kg) T: Jim Cerchi Jnr
12. Ameliaranne (6) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: N J Harnett	18	17	16.2	16
13. Night King (12) J: Unknown (58kg) T: Jamie Scott

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The last race I’m keen to play in tonight is Race 7, where I’ll be having something small on two runners. (7) Snows Bro won two races on the bounce before being beaten less than a length last start at Mornington in similar company. The soft track should play into his favour tonight and at $12, he’s worth including.

(10) Shadow Goddess is my main bet in the race at $7.00. He won first up at Benalla and then had absolutely no luck last time out at Bendigo, held up the entire straight with plenty to give. That race was won by Mrs Beckham so that form isn’t bad at all. Both her wins have been at 1200m and both have been on soft ground. With even luck tonight, I think he’ll be right in the finish.

The favourite (9) Sassy Salitage will be hard to beat IF she can reproduce her best form, but that’s the query, along with the fact Greg Eurell has had just one winner here from 39 runners in the past 12 months.

Tip: (10) Shadow Goddess $7.00 Unibet

Value: (7) Snows Bro $12 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Shadow Goddess, 0.25 units WIN Snows Bro

Race 8

Meluca Group (Bm64) (1400m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Meluca Group (Bm64) (1400m) 9:00pm (AEDT)
1. Good 'N' Fast (4) J: Ben Allen (62kg) T: Gavin Bedggood	23	26	26.5	23
2. Indernile (13) J: Patrick Moloney (62kg) T: G M Moloney	5.5	5.5	5.1	5.5
3. Fudged (6) J: Brian Higgins (61.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson
4. Shenanigan City (16) J: Michael Dee (61kg) T: E Jusufovic	11	12	11	12
5. So He Rules (3) J: Jason Maskiell (61kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
6. Full Of Theories (18) J: Campbell Rawiller (60.5kg) T: Ebony Tucker	41	61	53	51
7. Nina Rules (10) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (59.5kg) T: Ms P Hickey	21	41	25	26
8. Cunnamulla (11) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: P G Moody	4.5	4.4	4.55	4.4
9. Stay Gold (5) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: D T O'brien	4.8	4.8	4.45	4.6
10. Foxgossip (15) J: Michael Rodd (58.5kg) T: M M Laurie	8.5	7.5	7.4	7.5
11. Opoho Dreaming (9) J: Jake Noonan (58.5kg) T: M D Moroney	17	17	19.2	18
12. Savagery (14) J: Michael Walker (58.5kg) T: C J Waller	5	5.5	5	5.5
13. Canford Lass (8) J: Lewis German (57kg) T: G Eurell	101	151	161	151
14. The Regiment (1) J: Unknown (59kg) T: J F Moloney
15. Ping Ping (2) J: Ms Sally Wynne (58kg) T: Sally Wynne
16. Booze Free (12) J: Unknown (58kg) T: M W Ryan
17. Dry Biscuit (7) J: Unknown (56kg) T: M W Ryan
18. Jersey Whistler (17) J: Jason Benbow (56kg) T: Tara Cochrane

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 9

Sportsbet - 3Wnc Podcast-Bm64 (1600m)
9:30pm (AEDT)

Race 9 Sportsbet - 3Wnc Podcast-Bm64 (1600m) 9:30pm (AEDT)
1. Firstclass Dreamer (10) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (63kg) T: Matthew Brown	7	6.5	6.4	6.5
2. Sir Edwin Landseer (8) J: Ms Emily Brown (62.5kg) T: A Rosolini	7.5	7	6.9	7.5
3. Mellors (9) J: Luke Nolen (62kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	7.5	8	7.2	8
4. Igniter (7) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	6	6	5.4	5.5
5. Kamien (2) J: Michael Walker (60.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	11	11	9.9	10
6. Konkalikon (5) J: Damien Thornton (60.5kg) T: G Eurell	20	21	17.4	23
7. Saint Peter (15) J: Ben Allen (60.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	13	14	12.6	15
8. Laundy (16) J: Michael Walker (60kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
9. Legenda (3) J: Arron Lynch (60kg) T: Jim Cerchi Jnr	41	51	53	51
10. Parallel World (13) J: Ms Yoko Ota (58.5kg) T: S Mccusker	23	26	26.5	26
11. Misool (6) J: Jake Noonan (58kg) T: Archie Alexander	11	10	10	9
12. Code Blue (1) J: Michael Dee (57.5kg) T: Patrick Payne	5	4.8	5.1	4.8
13. Tarn's Prince (12) J: Will Price (59.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	21	17	26.5	14
14. Sir Harald (17) J: Unknown (59kg) T: J F Moloney
15. Painted Black (14) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: Ms R Frost
16. Shoot For Coomaah (4) J: Brian Higgins (58.5kg) T: Richard Laming
17. Toorak Playboy (11) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: John R Allen
18. One For Rocky (18) J: Liam Riordan (58kg) T: L Xuereb

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.