Pinjarra Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 6th

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

We kick off the day with a 2000m maiden that is one of the lowest races you’ll see. I’m actually tipping the complete rank outsider of the field, (8) Light Up The Moon at $51. She is the lightest raced in the race, a veteran of just four starts, but she interestingly resumes from a 39-week spell over 2000m. She raced over 1600m first up last prep and it was the closest she’s finished in a race, beaten just 2.5L. She ran the second-fastest final 600m and 400m, and the fastest final 200m of the race. That indicates she might be looking for this kind of distance. Whether she’s fit enough first up having run just once since Boxing Day 2018 is the obvious query, but this is a very ordinary race and at those odds, she piques my interest.

(6) Black Melody ran 2^nd over this track and distance last start. A repeat of that run would probably see her win this but she did get a dream run on that occasion.

(7) Future Queen will lead and it can often be tricky to run down frontrunners early in the day at Pinjarra, so she’s not hopeless at $21.

(2) Diffusion bounced back with a good run when reapplied with blinkers last start.

Tip: (8) Light Up The Moon $51 Ladbrokes

Also backing: (7) Future Queen $23 Pointsbet

Betting strategy: 0.25 units E/W Light Up The Moon, 0.25 units E/W Future Queen

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(8) Real Passion was defeated as the $1.80 favourite on debut at Bunbury but I actually thought her run was quite good. She settled back in the field on the rail and that was a day that was very hard to make ground from the back of the field. She wound up slowly and got within 0.75L on the line, and I thought her run had more merit than what it may have seemed. Straight up from 1200m to 1500m should suit. Parnham jumps off another horse in the race to ride her and with even luck from barrier 1, she should be winning.

(7) Dance Shoes is the horse Parnham jumps off and she didn’t get all that much luck last start, held up at a crucial stage of the straight. When she did get clear, she made ground, but I thought she was still a touch plain.

(1) Bentley Beau is another that didn’t have much luck here last start. Not hopeless.

Tip: (8) Real Passion $2.00 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Real Passion

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(4) Vane Tempest was a great run in defeat on debut here over this track and distance back in August, running home strongly from back in the field to finish 2^nd to Classic Magnus. The winner then went to town and won so the form was good at the time. Vane Tempest then went for a spell and returns with two winning trials under the belt, the most recent of which was a 9L margin. You have to be careful with those sorts of margins in trials but it was the quickest time of the morning. The stable go very well here at Pinjarra with six winners from 17 starters in the past 12 months. So long as they are able to make ground early, she should be winning.

(6) Dream Evil comes off a winning trial ahead of her debut today. Where she gets to in the run from barrier 8 is the query but this is a stable I really respect so expect her to run well.

(7) Spritely Star makes her debut for the Peters/Williams connections with Chris Parnham in the saddle. Her recent trial was interesting. She was last of the main pack on the corner and was under the stick in the straight, but Pike did wait a while to ask her for a maximum effort and when he did, I thought she responded well enough.

Tip: (4) Vane Tempest $1.76 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Vane Tempest

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

 The run of (8) Somethingready on debut was super, storming home along the inside from last to be beaten less than a length. She trialled well leading into that so if she can make use of the low draw to sit a bit closer today, she should go very well. Clint Johnston-Porter picks up the ride with Chris Parnham jumping on the Peters horse.

The Peters horse is (9) Graceful Girl, who also ran a very good race in defeat on the same day as Somethingready at Bunbury. She also came from near the back of the field to make eye-catching ground. Notably, Somethingready ran a faster final 400m and 200m, despite also running a quicker first sectional than Graceful Girl. So I’m leaning towards Somethingready at the prices.

(1) Jedi Mind was good on debut without any luck. He failed to replicate that when stepping up to 1400m at his second start, but he may not have pulled up all that well given we haven’t seen him for seven weeks following that.

(10) Talkalicious bombed the start on debut but wasn’t beaten all that far. She trialled well before her debut so if she can fix her barrier manners and jump with the field, she can improve.

Tip: (8) Somethingready $3.70 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Somethingready

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(9) Belle Of The Night was a very sneaky trial at Lark Hill last week, making ground through the field despite having very little room. The margin was 5L but she was never clear and was under a hold weaving through traffic. The issue may be if she settles back in the field from barrier 7 and her ability to make up the ground, but with $7.50 available I have to have something on.

(2) Pro Is Here was fancied to run well here on debut down the 1000m straight but failed to do anything, beaten nearly 10L. There was some thought that he may pull up shinsore but he lines up here a week or so later, so clearly there’s no issue. Up to 1200m and back around a bend, happy to give him another chance at $21.

(8) Antique Jewel trialled nicely last week. She was green, running in behind horses in the straight, but once Pike got the whip in the left hand and got her to the outside, she picked up nicely. Expect her to go close.

Tip: (9) Belle of the Night $7.50 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Pro is Here $21.50 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Belle Of The Night, 0.25 units E/W Pro Is Here

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Ginger Flyer should be able to lead and dictate here and should be very hard to run down. She bolted in first up in a Class 1 at Ascot where she did exactly that, and you’d expect her to be fitter for that given she was first up at 1400m. The 3^rd and 4^th horses out of that race have both come out and won since, so the form has obviously stacked up well. She bolted in second up last prep by 3.5L and trainer Simon Miller has had five winners from 16 runners here at Pinjarra this season. All signs lead to her winning again.

(4) London Miss was gallant in defeat last start, which was her first attempt at 1400m. They elected to take a sit on that occasion but it will be interesting to see what they try and do from barrier 2 today. She’s racing well and looks to be the logical danger to the favourite.

Tip: (1) Ginger Flyer $2.70 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Ginger Flyer, 1 unit WIN London Miss

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Open race. Fair to say (9) Sentimental Hero has been disappointing since his explosive debut win at Northam. He went down as the $1.50 favourite at Bunbury before coming up short as the drifting $2.10 favourite at Ascot last start. He’ll no doubt be right in the finish and at least you’re getting $3.20 today, but it’s hard to dive into him again.

(3) Porphyrio was beaten 39L first up at Ascot, which looks great form. Not really, but I’ll forgive him for that. He’s had seven weeks off and a trial in between. He normally improves from his first up run to his second up run and he does have a great record here at Pinjarra. Not a great jockey booking but we’re getting double figures.

(4) Dani Bella brings good form to the race. She placed behind Sheza Chalmer and Ginger Flyer before coming out and winning at Bunbury last start. If she can get across from barrier 11 to lead or sit outside the leader, she’ll be hard to beat again. $7.00 is a decent bet.

(5) Trutiara was good winning first up at Northam before failing at Bunbury last start when well supported in betting. Query on the map with Carleen Hefel on from barrier 2 but $13 isn’t a bad price.

(8) Rocky Path not hopeless.

Tip: (4) Dani Bella $7.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (3) Porphyrio $10 Sportsbetting & (5) Trutiara $13 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Dani Bella, 0.5 units WIN Porphyrio, 0.25 units WIN Trutiara

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Prized Nemesis has looked a new horse since changing stables to Anne King. He returned with an eye-catching performance at Bunbury first up behind Dash Doll, who then went on to win again, while Prized Nemesis bolted in at Ascot last start. That was only a Westspeed Platinum maiden, which are often terrible form races, but he was way too good and can step up in grade here. He draws wide in barrier 11 with 60kg which is my biggest concern, but I think he’s pretty capable of measuring up here and $8.50 is a decent bet.

(4) Domineer continues to run well. She returned with a big win first up at Northam, before flying home behind London Miss from too far back, and it was a similar story last start. She settled ninth in the run before running home strongly to be beaten 1.5L. Barrier 1 is going to be interesting given her racing pattern, but at $9.50 I have to follow my money on her.

(8) Zadok won first up over 1000m last prep and resumes over 1200m today. No surprise to see him go well at double figure odds.

(11) Gunmetal Grey is another with Dash Doll form and gets the blinkers on for the first time here.

Tip: (1) Prized Nemesis $8.50 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Domineer $9.60 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Prized Nemesis, 0.5 units WIN Domineer

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(6) Brutus Maximus was good in his first two starts this prep, flashing home first up before winning here at Pinjarra second up. He then endured a torrid run last start, three-wide the trip and was still only beaten a touch over 2L. Worth noting he started a well-backed $3.60 chance that day so respect his SP. He should get the run of the race from barrier 1 today so $5.50 looks a good price about him.

(8) Twentythree Red had no luck first up at Ascot, blocked the entire straight. I was keen on him last start but he jumped poorly and was always well back, where it’s hard to win from at Bunbury. Hopefully he jumps better today because I think he could run a sneaky race at $31.

(1) Avalon Express was a good winner first up and can go well again.

Tip: (6) Brutus Maximus $5.60 Sportsbetting

Value: (8) Twentythree Red $31/$8.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Brutus Maximus, 0.25 units E/W Twentythree Red