Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 6th

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

First race of the day does look a touch tricky and with the unknown of how the track might play and the conditions, mixed with horses having their first start or first start on the wet going.

(7) Mount Fuji looks the one for me after his enormous effort last start. He was slow to begin and held up briefly in the straight before ducking to the inside and flying home. He will come on nicely from that first-up run and although he wasn’t asked to do much in his first trial this preparation, he looked to get through the heavy going nicely.

(2) Beachhaven is nice each-way odds I thought, despite the poor effort first-up in the same race as (7) Mount Fuji. I think he is better suited with the sting out of the ground and if he has a similar run to his last outing, I think he will finish a lot closer with how I think the track will be playing.

(1) Ahso will be fighting fit being from the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott yard and has been asked to do a bit in his two trials. If Sam Clipperton goes to the middle of the track in the first, I think he will give him the best chance to do well, especially being super fit.

Tip: (2) Beachhaven $4.20 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Another tough race early on with similar issues to the first. (8) Good Omens I thought trialled up nicely in her last trial where she led before Hugh Bowman let her go a little bit before letting her cruise to the line. I think she will sit midfield or worse here from the draw before peeling to the middle of the track, which I strongly believe will be the place to be. Obviously the unknown is the wet but that last trial was on a soft track so I believe she will be okay.

(1) Adulting was also in that trial but was coming from well behind and she got a real shove along to make ground. She did make some good ground but wasn’t travelling anywhere as well as (8) Good Omens and I personally think she will run a lot better on top of the ground. Knowing the Ryan/Alexiou camp, she will definitely be fit.

(7) Flexible was good last start and will be fit and ready for this one. I just didn’t think she accelerated that well in the soft going, but I am happy to be proven wrong.

Look for an improved run by (2) All That Sass who was wide throughout at Newcastle. Drawn much better and gets the blinkers for the first time.

Tip: (8) Good Omens $6.50 Bet365 E/W

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

I like one at each-way odds here and I think it will drift to nice odds come race time. (6) Shadow Flight has been flying under the radar in my eyes even though his form reads otherwise. Two back he made good solid ground late behind Amica, Montserrat and Nyami despite being no match for them with Amica and Montserrat winning nicely their next start. She then stepped up to a benchmark 88 in Saturday grade and went back to last from the wide barrier before making some really good ground throughout to only finish 3.2 lengths behind the winner Gone Bye. She gets a nice drop back in grade and only carries an extra 2kg and gets an extra 200m. Kathy O’Hara is booked which gives me confidence as she is a rider with plenty of confidence herself at the moment, and the way I think the track will play, this bloke can give this race a real shake.

(8) La Grisa is the bookies favourite and it isn’t hard to see why. She was good two back first-up and had plenty of excuses for her last start failure. The winkers go on her and with Tommy Berry booked, I’ll be surprised if she isn’t thereabouts.

(2) Kaapfever is one runner I prefer in these conditions and with the 2kg claim of Tom Sherry brings him right into calculations.  

Tip: (6) Shadow Flight $9.00 Bet365 E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Shadow Flight B3TSP, 1 unit PLACE Shadow Flight B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

(3) Deference arguably should have won last start but was given no chance until late in the piece. Somehow, they managed to grab third with him and hopefully this time in, Josh Parr will be able to right the wrongs of another jockey last start. I think she is drawn a touch poorly, so I will be hoping he will remain off the fence and given every chance in the straight.

(7) Star of Harada meets both (3) Deference and (1) Accelerato better at the weights for his last start defeat of less than a length. He will love the conditions and is very fit, so I expect a bold run with Clipperton remaining aboard. He won’t be going around without some of my money.

(8) Dance returned in nice fashion last start and should come on nicely from the run. I think he is drawn well and can back up his return win with another win, if Collett can keep him out of trouble.

Tip: (3) Deference $3.65 Sportsbetting

Also Betting: (7) Star of Harada $9.10 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Deference B3TSP, 0.5 unit WIN Star of Harada B3TSP, 1 unit PLACE Star of Harada B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Happy to side with (5) Irish Angel here after her nice returned to racing last start. She was very brave hitting the front 250m out only to be over-run by a better one in Shaik. She will be much better for the run and Kathy O’Hara should be able to put her into a nice position for the run home. She loves these types of conditions and I expect her to go close to making it win number two in her career.

(3) Brazen Gem was given no hope last start when ridden wide without cover and surprisingly ran home okay into fourth. From a better draw, I am expecting a much better run in-transit and being back in grade, she shouldn’t be far away.

(1) Moana Jewel can run a bold race as nice odds, especially with the 2kg claim of Chris Williams. She will be running home hard, so don’t leave her out of your exotics.

Tip: (5) Irish Angel $4.30 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Irish Angel B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

After a tremendous run last start, I have put (9) Commander Bell on top. The Pierro gelding flew up the middle of the track at Wyong to just miss out in a photo against Onemore Sapphire. From that race, Onemoresapphire ran a solid second next start and third placed Foxborough won in this grade next start. He will perform well on the wet track and will likely be in the middle of the track again when straightening. This is a wide-open race so if you decide to bet, make sure it’s each-way.

(3) Lando Bay will like the fact he is carrying 2kg less and gets a much wetter track than what he run on last start. He was too bad to be true at Kensington carrying 60kg, so I am willing to put a line through the run and predict he will run a nice race.

(10) Galahad’s Quest will love these conditions and with a wide barrier at this time of the afternoon could be advantageous. No weight on his back and should run a race

Tip: (9) Commander Bell $9.10 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Don’t mind (16) Blondeau here at nice odds to take out the last race. The effort first-up after his gelding was solid despite running in restricted room on the turn, but he found a second wind and finished off the race well in third. The draw will be fine this late in the day and the wet track won’t pose an issue. He will come on nicely from his first-up run and I like that they are staying at 1300m rather than stepping him up in distance.

(9) Blaze A Trail has trialled up nicely in preparation for this and no doubt connections will be excited about his return to the races. If the track dries up, it will bring him right into calculations, but I look forward to jumping on the bandwagon after I see his first-up run.

(6) Bluff ‘N’ Bluster ran well last start, saluting by the barest of margins at Randwick. He is fit and the conditions favour him. Don’t dismiss him.

Tip: (16) Blondeau $7.50 Bet365 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Blondeau B3TSP