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Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, April 2nd

Tim Geers previews every race on Day 1 of The Championships, featuring four Group 1s on the 10-race card!

nature strip TJ smith stakes

It’s Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday, featuring four Group 1s on the 10-race card!

The ATC Sires’ Produce, Australian Derby, T J Smith Stakes and the Doncaster Mile headline Day 1 of The Championships, which will yet again be run on a very wet track.

The surface is currently rated a Heavy 10 with the rail in the true position.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below with his tips and best bets.

His best bet comes up in the T J Smith Stakes, while his best value bet runs in the ATC Sires’ Produce.

Best Bet: Race 8 – (1) Nature Strip

Best Value: Race 6 – (7) Magic

Moneyball

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Race 1

Widden Kindergarten Stks (1100m)
12:10pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Widden Kindergarten Stks (1100m)
12:10pm (AEDT)

1. Semillion (7) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
3.33.63.45
2. Calgary Stampede (2) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
151112.4
3. Spacewalk (1) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
7.56.57.1
4. Nominator (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
65.54.7
5. Voldemort (6) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
8.565.9
6. Insurrection (5) J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
212019.6
7. Bandi's Boy (10) J: Mathew Cahill (56.5kg) T: D A Williams
8189
8. Charlie Foxtrot (11) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: Kacy Fogden
71101101
9. Asteria (9) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
111211.8
10. Ginger's Gal (4) J: Damian Lane (54.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
66.5
11. Kai Tak (3) J: Craig Williams (54.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
213127

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 12:10pm (AEDT)

We’ve seen a few horses in recent years come through the Blue Diamond Stakes in Melbourne and go on to win the Kindergarten Stakes in Sydney, and (1) Semillion brings that set up this year for Team Hawkes and William Pike. Led them up in the Diamond and fought on well to finish 5th, beaten 1.35L. Won on debut on soft ground, albeit a 5 is very different to a Heavy 10. Pike is flying and the horse should take some running down here.

(5) Voldermort only comes off a Scone maiden win but the style in which he won was impressive. JMac on for Annabel Neasham, clearly has talent.

(10) Ginger’s Gal has won all four trials leading into her debut today and commands respect. Notably it was 2010 when a filly last won this race.

Tip: (1) Semillion $4.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Semillion

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Race 2

Fujitsu Carbine Club Stks (1600m)
12:45pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Fujitsu Carbine Club Stks (1600m)
12:45pm (AEDT)

1. Flying Crazy (2) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
5.55.55.3
2. Jalmari (3) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: D A Williams
999.1
3. Straight Arron (10) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller
1.9521.9
4. Kelvedon Road (6) J: Billy Owen (56kg) T: Todd Smart
161516.2
5. Field Legend (7) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: Chris Waller
6. Gulf Of Saros (4) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
7. Devil Racer (9) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Brad Widdup
515139
8. Dark Rebel (8) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Edward Cummings
414131
9. Sweet Ruby (5) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: Ms K Waugh
109.59.9
10. Cap Estel (1) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: A J Cummings
666.5

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 12:49pm (AEDT)

(3) Straight Arron is a horse I was keen on first up but he bumped into Loch Eagle who may be pretty smart. They pulled about 6L clear of the other horses which is generally a good indication that they are above average. Should come on from that run and prove hard to beat here.

(2) Jalmari wasn’t beaten all that far in the G2 Ajax Stakes last start and much like his stablemate Shelby Sixtysix, just seems to be improving with every start.

(10) Cap Estel was well-beaten in the G1 Coolmore Classic last start but was impressive prior to that.

Tip: (3) Straight Arron $2.35 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Straight Arron

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Race 3

Tab Adrian Knox Stks (2000m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tab Adrian Knox Stks (2000m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

1. Roots (11) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller
5.555.6
2. Honeycreeper (15) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: James Cummings
121313.2
3. Achira (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: Lee & Cherie Curtis
141313.8
4. Secret Glamour (3) J: John Allen (55.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8.58.58
5. Charity Spirit (6) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55kg) T: G Portelli
161714.4
6. In De Summertime (12) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: K R Dryden
141414.2
7. I'm Divine (2) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: Edward Cummings
6.55.8
8. Summerbeel (4) J: Tim Clark (54.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
202116.6
9. Chenin (8) J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
998.8
10. Empress El (13) J: Jay Ford (54.5kg) T: C J Waller
344135
11. Taizai (14) J: Regan Bayliss (54.5kg) T: John Thompson
313124.5
12. Mamounia (9) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54.5kg) T: James Cummings
5.555.6
13. Prophet's Pride (10) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54.5kg) T: P J Facoory
8183
14. Mikasa (7) J: Brock Ryan (54.5kg) T: John Thompson
10110173
15. Ninyo (19) J: Dean Holland (54.5kg) T: Aaron Laing
126151161
16. Mauricently (18) J: Robbie Dolan (54.5kg) T: K A Lees
616163
17. Great Mystery (16) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: C E Conners
18. Miss Madison (17) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker
19. Snitzyka (1) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 1:24pm (AEDT)

Very hard race the Adrian Knox, with a full field of 16 three-year-old fillies tackling the 2000m.

(12) Mamounia bolted in over this distance at the end of last prep before an eye-catching first up run over 1300m at Newcastle, fresh off a nine-week break. She now steps straight up to 2000m, an unconventional sort of prep but we know she handles the trip. Jamie Kah booked to ride for Godolphin, she looks a major player.

(1) Roots carries top weight for JMac and Waller. She was disappointing in the Phar Lap Stakes last start and as a result, the very heavy track here must be some concern, but on best form she’d be very competitive.

(2) Honeycreeper looked like she’d need another lap in the Tasmanian Oaks last start but the blinkers go on for the first time here.

(4) Secret Glamour represents the Maher-Eustace team, always worth respecting their runners over these sorts of distances.

Tip: (12) Mamounia $7.00 TopSport

Also Backing: (1) Roots $7.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mamounia, 0.5 units WIN Roots

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Race 4

Schweppes Chairmans Quality (2600m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Schweppes Chairmans Quality (2600m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

1. Stockman (10) J: Ms Alysha Collett (59kg) T: Joseph Pride
2. Great House (2) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
5.566.1
3. Surprise Baby (3) J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
99.59.6
4. She's Ideel (20) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
55.1
5. Knights Order (12) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
6.565.6
6. Zeyrek (4) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
43.93.65
7. Nerve Not Verve (8) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: M D Moroney
262624.5
8. South Pacific (11) J: Teodore Nugent (54kg) T: Richard Litt
126101131
9. Avion Fury (5) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: I B Finn
126101101
10. Future Score (17) J: Brock Ryan (53kg) T: Matt Cumani
11. Luncies (19) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: K A Lees
9.59.58.4
12. Chalk Stream (1) J: Tommy Berry (53kg) T: C J Waller
13. Alakahan (15) J: Craig Williams (53kg) T: R & M Freedman
141414
14. Kaapfever (13) J: Tyler Schiller (53kg) T: Joseph Pride
515141
15. Le Baol (16) J: Ms Jamie Kah (53kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
16. Savvy Valentino (7) J: Ms Rachel King (53kg) T: Bjorn Baker
415143
17. Sweet Thomas (9) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: Matthew Smith
126101121
18. True Marvel (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53kg) T: Matthew Smith
126101131
19. Feel The Rush (18) J: Ms Linda Meech (53kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
414132
20. Olympic Gaze (14) J: Jean Van Overmeire (53kg) T: P M Perry
126101131

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 1:59pm (AEDT)

One for the diehards here with a field of stayers racing over 2600m on a Heavy 10 in the Chairman’s Quality.

The Manion Cup (now known as the Queen’s Cup) is a good lead up race for this.

(12) Chalk Stream ran 3rd in the Queen’s Cup after sitting three-wide the trip and should be cherry ripe now third up from a spell. Has won three times over 2400m in the UK and handles the ground so with 53kg at the right stage of his prep, he looks hard to beat.

(6) Zeyrek started the well-backed $2.50 favourite in the Queen’s Cup and finished 4th. Prior to that was dominant over 2000m. Has two wins over 2400m so the distance shouldn’t really be a query and he’s drawn a plum gate in barrier 4.

(11) Luncies started $6.50 in the Queen’s Cup but failed. Prior to that he was sound behind Zeyrek and he gets blinkers on for the first time today.

Maher-Eustace said (15) Le Baol was their best chance of the day, while (2) Great House and (13) Alakahan are other chances.

Tip: (6) Zeyrek $4.40 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Zeyrek

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Race 5

Newhaven Pk Ctry Champs. Final (1400m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Newhaven Pk Ctry Champs. Final (1400m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

1. Cavalier Charles (7) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: Matthew Dale
7.587.7
2. Far Too Easy (1) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: D A Mccolm
4.54.24.15
3. Another One (8) J: Nick Heywood (57.5kg) T: G J Colvin
9.59.59.6
4. Testator Silens (13) J: Jean Van Overmeire (57.5kg) T: Luke Clarke
676.2
5. Zoo Station (22) J: Tony Cavallo (57kg) T: Gayna Williams
6. Edit (3) J: Aaron Bullock (56kg) T: Cody Morgan
65.55
7. Anethole (14) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Cody Morgan
9.598
8. Commando Hunt (11) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: Cameron Crockett
121212
9. Tap 'N' Run (10) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: R T Stubbs
212123.5
10. Great Buy (2) J: Michael Heagney (56kg) T: Brett Robb
343435
11. To The Nines (4) J: Jordan Mallyon (56kg) T: Tash Burleigh
414141
12. Amulet Street (6) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C Lundholm
616163
13. Lockdown Gamble (12) J: Mathew Cahill (56kg) T: David J Smith
12691101
14. Zoukina (5) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: S B Lee
101011
15. Swamp Nation (9) J: Ms Madi Derrick (54kg) T: Glen Milligan
515153
16. Little Prophet (15) J: Ms Cejay Graham (54kg) T: Colt Prosser
101101111
17. Banju (17) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Lyle Chandler
18. Blue Missile (18) J: Unknown (57.5kg) T: Michelle Ritchie
19. Ferus (19) J: Unknown (56kg) T: C Lundholm
20. Gusonic (20) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Ms D Scott
21. Shirazzle (21) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Donna Grisedale
22. How's It Kev (16) J: Ms Alysha Collett (56kg) T: Ms A Smith
151101161
23. Bobbing (23) J: Unknown (57.5kg) T: B J Kelly

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 2:40pm (AEDT)

The Country Championships Final is a lottery.

(1) Cavalier Charles defeated Shelby Sixtysix in a Highway Handicap four starts ago. We all know what Shelby Sixtysix has gone on to do since then! Cavalier Charles has also continued his form, with an eye-catching 0.5L defeat followed by consecutive wins. Heavy track some query but has to be a big chance.

(2) Far Too Easy is building a nice record with five wins from eight starts. Ran 4th to King Of Sparta in the Gold Coast 3YO Magic Millions two starts ago and prior to that was 2nd to Me Me Lagarde.

Speaking of good records, (4) Testator Silens has five wins from six starts, is undefeated on rain-affected ground, including a win at Rosehill on a Heavy 10.

(6) Edit was a terrific run first up behind Cavalier Charles and they’ve aimed him at this race for a long time now. You’d have to think the heavy ground is the biggest query given he’s never won on rain-affected ground.

(11) To The Nines the blowout at $41.

Tip: (6) Edit $8.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

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Race 6

Inglis Sires (1400m)
3:15pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Inglis Sires (1400m)
3:15pm (AEDT)

1. Daumier (11) J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
121210
2. Shalatin (1) J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
343429.5
3. Let'srollthedice (7) J: Damian Lane (56.5kg) T: D T O'brien
109.1
4. Counttheheadlights (13) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
192120
5. Millane (3) J: Luke Nolen (56.5kg) T: Peter Moody
6. Man In The Mirror (2) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
416141
7. Magic (8) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
171814
8. Warby (10) J: John Allen (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
262622
9. Wealthy Investor (9) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: D Lane
151101131
10. Showcourt (5) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
111212.2
11. Brosnan (4) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
343433
12. Fireburn (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (54.5kg) T: G Portelli
1.951.852.05
13. She's Extreme (12) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: A J Cummings
65.3

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 3:19pm (AEDT)

The first Group 1 on the card is the ATC Sires’ Produce.

The Golden Slipper winner (12) Fireburn looks exceptionally hard to beat off her explosive last-start victory on the bottomless track at Rosehill, which followed up her heavy track win in the Sweet Embrace Stakes. The Heavy 10 really makes her the horse to beat here and although there is some thought that the Slipper may have been her grand final, Gary Portelli was talking a possible tilt at the Champagne Stakes, which indicates she’s showing no signs of slowing down.

(13) She’s Extreme ran 2nd to Fireburn in the Sweet Embrace before winning the Magic Night. She was luckless in the Golden Slipper and looks a logical danger at $8.50.

I think the underrated colt in the line up is (7) Magic, who was eye-catching on debut in the Silver Slipper. He then started favourite in the Pago Pago but was a touch disappointing. I said after his debut he had Sires’ written all over him so I won’t be dropping off here, especially from a grand final stable.

Tip: (12) Fireburn $2.00 Bet365

Value: (7) Magic $17 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Fireburn, 0.5 units WIN Magic

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Race 7

Bentley Australian Derby (2400m)
3:55pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Bentley Australian Derby (2400m)
3:55pm (AEDT)

1. Hitotsu (4) J: John Allen (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.23.23.25
2. Alegron (3) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
141412
3. Forgot You (13) J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
111211.8
4. Castlereagh Kid (12) J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
191719.2
5. Regal Lion (10) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: M Baker & A Forsman
4.84.84.85
6. White Noise (21) J: Robbie Dolan (56.5kg) T: M Baker & A Forsman
414143
7. War Eternal (9) J: Damian Lane (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
131213.8
8. Character (11) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
131311.2
9. Can't Go Wong (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2626.5
10. Maurice's Medad (16) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4126.5
11. Raging Bull (15) J: Craig Williams (56.5kg) T: David Payne
414137
12. Elzamee (1) J: Chad Schofield (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
262626
13. Zoumon (5) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
819159
14. Clyde (8) J: Shaun Guymer (56.5kg) T: G Portelli
10110189
15. Benaud (19) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: J A O'shea
121110.2
16. Footlights (2) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
414138
17. Sea Treasures (17) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
819161
18. Akahata (20) J: Brock Ryan (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
151101141
19. Asternishing (18) J: Dean Holland (56.5kg) T: Mick Bell
20. Mediaro (14) J: Jay Ford (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
21. Lukey Luke (7) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: Ms G Markwell

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 3:59pm (AEDT)

I’m still hurting about the run of (5) Regal Lion in the Tulloch Stakes last start after backing him at 20/1 on the day. The shift of the meeting to Newcastle and therefore the distance change from 2000m to 1850m really hurt in the end. The run from the horse was absolutely enormous, which was his first start in Australia after a sound effort in the New Zealand Derby. Murray Baker has had so much success in this race in the past and this looks another live chance for him.

(1) Hitotsu recorded a remarkable win in the Australian Guineas first up from a spell. He now steps up from the mile to 2400m second up, it’s almost unprecedented what he’s been able to do. He did step up from the mile to 2500m when winning the VRC Derby last prep, but he hasn’t been tested on a heavy track yet.

(15) Benaud‘s run in the Tulloch was also very good in 4th, so if you like Regal Lion you have to entertain Benaud.

(9) Can’t Go Wrong is building towards a big run over this sort of trip.

Tip: (5) Regal Lion $6.50 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Regal Lion

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Race 8

Furphy T J Smith Stks (1200m)
4:35pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Furphy T J Smith Stks (1200m)
4:35pm (AEDT)

1. Nature Strip (11) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
2.72.62.85
2. Eduardo (3) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
4.24.24.3
3. Masked Crusader (1) J: William Pike (58.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
8.597.4
4. Zoutori (7) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: M J Ellerton
818159
5. Count De Rupee (4) J: Brock Ryan (58.5kg) T: R & L Price
615153
6. Shelby Sixtysix (10) J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg) T: D A Williams
66.56.6
7. Rule Of Law (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
615143
8. Roch 'N' Horse (8) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: M D Moroney
1614.6
9. Overpass (2) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
161513.4
10. Belluci Babe (9) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
262620
11. Paulele (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
131210.8

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 4:40pm (AEDT)

I get the feeling we’re going to see the real (1) Nature Strip turn up today. His first up run in the Lightning Stakes was tremendous after blowing the start, but he was awfully disappointing in the Challenge Stakes last start. The form out of that race has stood up through Shelby Sixtysix, and it’s not the first time we’ve seen Nature Strip put in a sub-par performance at his second run back. He was beaten in last year’s Challenge Stakes as the odds-on favourite, then came out and won the T J. He also suffered defeat in The Shorts last prep before winning the Everest third up. He has six wins from eight starts when third up so tipping him to show up here.

(6) Shelby Sixtysix has taken the country by storm in a quite remarkable progression from a Highway Handicap to a Group 1 Galaxy. Now tackles the country’s premier sprinters in one of the country’s top sprint races under weight-for-age conditions. It’s his biggest test but who’s to say he can’t measure up?

(8) Roch ‘N’ Horse adds intrigue off the G1 Newmarket Handicap victory, which has seen subsequent William Reid Stakes winner September Run frank the form.

(2) Eduardo will be right thereabouts, while (3) Masked Crusader appears out of form but can never really be discounted on best form.

Tip: (1) Nature Strip $3.00 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Nature Strip

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Race 9

The Star Doncaster Mile (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

Race 9

The Star Doncaster Mile (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

1. Cascadian (18) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: James Cummings
192116.6
2. I'm Thunderstruck (8) J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
6.56.6
3. Private Eye (22) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: Joseph Pride
212622
4. Dalasan (5) J: Chad Schofield (53.5kg) T: L Macdonald & A Gluyas
676169
5. Lighthouse (23) J: Damian Lane (53kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
192018.8
6. Laws Of Indices (4) J: Tommy Berry (53kg) T: Annabel Neasham
212117.6
7. Ellsberg (6) J: Tim Clark (52kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
151312.6
8. Inspirational Girl (19) J: William Pike (51.5kg) T: D T O'brien
212619
9. Hungry Heart (11) J: Unknown (51.5kg) T: C J Waller
10. Icebath (9) J: Fred Kersley (51.5kg) T: Brad Widdup
212624.5
11. Sky Lab (1) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (51.5kg) T: P M Perry
12691131
12. Kissonallforcheeks (7) J: Ms Alysha Collett (51kg) T: D L Morton
3435
13. Numerian (2) J: Robbie Dolan (51kg) T: Annabel Neasham
414143
14. Hilal (16) J: Brock Ryan (50.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
15. Brutality (17) J: Jay Ford (50.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
414137
16. Forbidden Love (14) J: Ms Jamie Kah (50kg) T: R & M Freedman
3.83.93.85
17. Just Folk (10) J: Dean Holland (50kg) T: Joshua Julius
211920.5
18. Kiku (20) J: Ms Linda Meech (50kg) T: C J Waller
675145
19. Mr Brightside (21) J: Craig Williams (50kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
171615.4
20. Converge (3) J: Ms Rachel King (49.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
9.5108.4
21. Bankers Choice (15) J: Teodore Nugent (50kg) T: M D Moroney
151516.2
22. King Magnus (12) J: Unknown (50kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
151101141
23. Ironclad (24) J: Linda Meech (50kg) T: Will Clarken
24. Our Playboy (13) J: Unknown (50kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 5:20pm (AEDT)

(16) Forbidden Love looks almost a weighted moral here, surely? She’s had four starts this prep for a 2nd followed by three consecutive wins, her past two being Group 1s. She drops 7kg down to 50kg here and simply looks thrown in at the weights. Five wins from six starts on heavy ground, with any luck in running with Jamie Kah aboard, she will be mighty hard to beat again.

I’ve been saying all along that (6) Laws Of Indices is a Doncaster horse and here he is, down in the weights with 53kg. Amazingly, he meets Forbidden Love 1.5kg worse off at the weights for a 1.5L defeat last start, so he’s got plenty to turn around but at 25/1 he’s worth a spec.

(20) Converge drops back to the mile after running 2nd to Anamoe over 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas last start. He won the Randwick Guineas over track and distance two starts ago, where he got the better of Anamoe, and on that form with 49.5kg he’d have to be a serious shout.

(2) I’m Thunderstruck next best.

Tip: (16) Forbidden Love $3.90 TopSport

Value: (6) Laws Of Indices $26 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Forbidden Love, 0.25 units WIN Laws Of Indices

212868

Race 10

China Horse Club P J Bell Stks (1200m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

Race 10

China Horse Club P J Bell Stks (1200m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

1. Arcaded (10) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: James Cummings
262621
2. Sneaky Five (5) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
121212.2
3. Mallory (19) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
161714.2
4. Hellfest (12) J: Chad Schofield (56kg) T: James Cummings
191919.2
5. Heresy (18) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: James Cummings
6.56.56.1
6. Gimmie Par (6) J: Luke Nolen (56kg) T: P G Moody
121311.2
7. Me Me Lagarde (16) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
7.58.58.6
8. Najmaty (15) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: P & P Snowden
9. Robodira (14) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: J A O'shea
514138
10. A Very Fine Red (11) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: Mark Newnham
665.4
11. Latino Blend (1) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: P & P Snowden
12. Smirnova (9) J: William Pike (54kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
9.599.6
13. Zapateo (2) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: James Cummings
6.56.55.8
14. Larkspur Run (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: James Cummings
415151
15. Party For One (7) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: Joseph Pride
262626.5
16. Comrade Rosa (3) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: J A O'shea
121211.6
17. Dalchini (17) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: Lee & Cherie Curtis
717173
18. Compassionate (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: T J Bartley
19. I Am Brazen (13) J: Unknown (54kg) T: John Thompson

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 5:54pm (AEDT)

Complete lottery to end the card.

(13) Zapateo ran 2nd to Mazu first up and then ran a good race in 4th behind that same horse in the Fireball Stakes last start. Looks ready for 1200m now.

(16) Comrade Rosa produced a good first up win at Newcastle coming from the back of the field. It was only a BM64 at the provincials but looks to have scope to improve.

(7) Me Me Lagarde comes here first up from a spell with JMac booked to ride. Was last seen running 2nd in the Gold Coast 3YO Guineas.

(5) Heresy drops out of Group 1 company.

Tip: (13) Zapateo $8.00 Moneyball

Value: (16) Comrade Rosa $21 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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