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Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, March 6th

Tim Geers casts his eye over the nine races on Randwick Guineas day, featuring two Group 1s and seven other races at black type level.

Aegon-Randwick

We’re less than a month away from The Championships in Sydney, and the build up continues with another blockbuster meeting at Randwick on Saturday, March 6th.

The Group 1 Randwick Guineas and Group 1 Canterbury Stakes headline the nine-race card, with a further two Listed races, three Group 3s and two Group 2s on the program.

The track is rated a Good 4, so we’ll be racing on a dry surface at Randwick for the first time in a while. The rail is out 3m.

Tim Geers has cast his eye over the meeting below, including his tips and betting strategy for each race.

Best Bet: Race 4 – (7) Mount Popa

Best Value: Race 3 – (6) Joyous Legend

PlayUp

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Race 1

Tokyo City Keiba Fireball Stks (1100m)
12:40pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tokyo City Keiba Fireball Stks (1100m)
12:40pm (AEDT)

1. Wild Ruler (1) J: James Mcdonald (59kg) T: P & P Snowden
1.651.651.651.651.721.7
2. Mamaragan (7) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: John Thompson
111111119.411
3. Doubtland (6) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
888.588.18.5
4. On The Lead (4) J: Tom Marquand (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
1819192018.218
5. Tommy Gold (2) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: J A O'shea
616161615551
6. Andermatt (3) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: James Cummings
3.73.83.83.93.553.7
7. Vowmaster (8) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: C J Waller
8. Marboosha (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: P & P Snowden

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

(1) Wild Ruler finds a suitable race first up here. The stable has said he’s returned a better horse this prep, and if that’s the case, he’ll be very hard to beat here. He’s had three runs when first up, for two wins and a 0.2L 2nd. He’s undefeated at Randwick, gets JMac on and draws barrier 1. He looks the horse to beat.

Excited to see if (7) Vowmaster can bounce back on a firm track here. He couldn’t have done much more wrong first up on the wet track. He played up pre-race, overraced badly, travelled wide without cover and then spun his wheels on the wet track. JMac jumps off but back on a firm surface, he can show his best.

(6) Andermatt resumed with a strong win and should improve off it. I pegged him as a horse to follow wherever he went but I fear he may have just bumped into a smart one here.

Tip: (1) Wild Ruler $2.05 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Wild Ruler

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Race 2

Unsw Todman Stakes (1200m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Unsw Todman Stakes (1200m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

1. Profiteer (1) J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
2.12.12.152.252.22.1
2. Alpine Edge (5) J: Glen Boss (55.5kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
181920202121
3. Anamoe (7) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
101010111010
4. Home Affairs (3) J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
191919212019
5. Stay Inside (8) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
3.43.43.43.42.753.4
6. Rocket Tiger (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55.5kg) T: S Spackman
7. Remarque (2) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
5.55.5655.85.5
8. Direct (4) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell
101101151101101101
9. Solar Winds (9) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

One of the races of the day is the Todman Stakes, where we see a number of seriously exciting colts take each other on.

(1) Profiteer was impressive on debut at Flemington and backed it up with a scintillating win here at Randwick last time out, speeding away out in front before running his rivals of their legs by more than 5L. He draws 1 here so they’ll be looking to use similar tactics and avoid any chance of bad luck. Off times, he’s the one to beat.

(5) Stay Inside won by 4L as our best bet of the day last start, but the winning margin probably should have been less had Vianello had any luck in behind. He was visually very impressive, and it wouldn’t shock anyone to see him win again here, but if Profiteer runs them along in front, it will be interesting to see how he handles a high-pressure race.

(7) Remarque is the X-factor in the race. We haven’t seen him in seven weeks since he bolted in on debut at Canterbury. From the reports I’ve heard, the Hawkes team think this colt is right up there with the best of them. He could take a sit in behind Profiteer from barrier 2. Is there a bit of recency bias with the other two, and could this one be the one being overlooked?

I’ll sit back and enjoy the contest, no need to bet with the three taking up such a large percentage of the market.

Tip: (1) Profiteer $2.45 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 3

Yarraman Park Reisling Stks (1200m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Yarraman Park Reisling Stks (1200m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

1. Swift Witness (7) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
7.57.57.587.27.5
2. Sliders (2) J: Tom Marquand (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
1414141414.214
3. Vianello (1) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
666.56.56.56
4. Ruby Kisses (10) J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
1617171614.818
5. Pretty Woman (4) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55.5kg) T: Matthew Dale
4.84.84.854.655
6. Joyous Legend (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
6.56.56.566.66.5
7. Testimonial (5) J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
1213131313.213
8. Glistening (8) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
2326262618.226
9. Trifaccia (11) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
1515151414.615
10. Flying Witness (6) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
262626203031
11. Chill (12) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings
918191819581
12. Gstaad (9) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
6.56.57776.5

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 1:51pm (AEDT)

I’ve made (6) Joyous Legend my best value bet of the day here for Les Bridge and Kerrin McEvoy. She broke her maiden on debut at Gosford, which was on a heavy 9. She did it easily there and although Gosford form is hardly enough to make you want to dive in, I think she can measure up here. Les Bridge runners always go well at Randwick and McEvoy jumps off one of the Godolphin runners to take the ride on Joyous Legend.

(3) Vianello is the horse McEvoy jumps off (or was dumped from). She didn’t get any luck behind Stay Inside last start. The margin said 4L but in actual fact, she really should have been about 2L closer. We’ll get a gauge on that form when Stay Inside runs in the Todman prior to this. With even luck I think she can be competitive.

(12) Gstaad has trialled well ahead of her debut for the Hawkes team and Tommy Berry.

(5) Pretty Woman has been dominant in two starts in Canberra, but I find it hard to get her close to favouritism for this race like she currently is.

Tip: (6) Joyous Legend $7.50/$2.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units E/W Joyous Legend

0

Race 4

Randwick City Stakes (2000m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Randwick City Stakes (2000m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

1. Quick Thinker (7) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: M Baker & A Forsman
1716171615.417
2. Sacramento (6) J: Sam Clipperton (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
2.92.92.82.832.8
3. The Lord Mayor (5) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: C J Waller
111011109.811
4. Collide (4) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg) T: K A Lees
1111121212.212
5. Paths Of Glory (3) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
2121212118.823
6. Selino (8) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: C J Waller
343434343134
7. Mount Popa (1) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
221.952.12.052
8. Entente (2) J: Tim Clark (53kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
9. Mr Marathon Man (9) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: Richard Litt

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 2:26pm (AEDT)

After the scratching of Entente, I’m very keen on (7) Mount Popa here. He was terrific first up over 1600m, going toe to toe with Shared Ambition in the straight. All Time Legend was back in 3rd in that race (after having no luck throughout) so I think that’s a reliable form reference. Shared Ambition went to Melbourne and ran 2nd in G2 company. Mount Popa stepped up from 1400m to 2000m second up last prep and bolted in here at Randwick, so the rise from 1600m to 2000m today should be ideal. Just needs luck from barrier 1.

(3) The Lord Mayor is the other horse in the race I’m keen to back. He’s got an outstanding third up record, with three wins and two placings from five starts. Has a great record at the distance, gets to 2000m at the right time, James McDonald sticks with him and he looks a good chance at $8.50.

(2) Sacramento is obviously the horse in form and will take some running down from the front again. He’s won his past three and did it easily over track and distance two starts ago.

(4) Collide has three wins from five starts when first up so will be keen to see how he goes on his Australian debut.

Tip: (7) Mount Popa $2.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (3) The Lord Mayor $8.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Mount Popa, 0.5 units WIN The Lord Mayor

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Race 5

Hyland Colours Challenge Stks (1000m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Hyland Colours Challenge Stks (1000m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

1. Nature Strip (8) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
1.91.951.91.851.81.95
2. Eduardo (6) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
999.599.69
3. Jungle Edge (5) J: Ms Jade Darose (58.5kg) T: M A Bell
101101151101111101
4. Splintex (4) J: Joshua Parr (58.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
9.5109.5109.310
5. The Odyssey (7) J: Ms Stephanie Thornton (58.5kg) T: K M Schweida
414151414341
6. Spaceboy (2) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (58.5kg) T: G Portelli
515161515351
7. Bella Vella (1) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: Will Clarken
2326263128.526
8. Written Beauty (3) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
3.13.13.13.23.33.1

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 3:06pm (AEDT)

If he runs anywhere near his best, (1) Nature Strip should be winning this. He won this race last year by 3L on his way to winning the TJ Smith. He comes off a win in the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington and if he’s right, he’s quite obviously the one to beat. There does look a good deal of speed in this though, so it will be an interesting tactical race to watch unfold. Couldn’t back him at $1.50.

Really looking forward to seeing how (8) Written Beauty measures up against her toughest opposition to date. She did what she needed to do first up in a workmanlike performance, but from all reports she was going to improve significantly with the run. She’s won five of her six starts but she might just find one too good at this stage of her career.

Tip: (1) Nature Strip $1.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 6

Fujitsu General Wenona Girl (1200m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Fujitsu General Wenona Girl (1200m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

1. Positive Peace (2) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: Bjorn Baker
1110111110.810
2. Fiesta (8) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
5.55.565.55.45
3. Evalina (5) J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) T: K A Lees
151516171616
4. Seasons (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: L J Bridge
1717161614.819
5. Jen Rules (6) J: Andrew Adkins (53kg) T: P & P Snowden
9.599.599.29.5
6. Emanate (4) J: Ms Rachel King (53kg) T: James Cummings
2.052.052.052.122.1
7. Stolen Jade (7) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: C E Conners
1617161917.217
8. Zaniah (1) J: Ms Alysha Collett (53kg) T: K A Lees
414151415151
9. Fanciful Dream (10) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53kg) T: P M Perry
10. Vulpine (9) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: Brad Widdup
111213131112

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

I’m going against my review file for this race, purely because of the prices. I think $1.85 is probably well short enough for (6) Emanate, who was simply dominant last start at Rosehill, but that was on a wet track. She’s more than capable on good ground too, but sometimes wins in the wet can be a touch flattering.

(1) Positive Peace was actually on that made my sack list in the review, but at the odds I have to give her one more chance here. She has three wins from four starts when second up from a spell, and the one time she lost was last prep when she had no luck at all and was beaten 1.6L. She should be able to control the race and even with top weight can give this a good shake.

(4) Seasons was way over the odds at $26 and is still value in my book at $18. She had no luck at all first up last prep when 3rd to Sweet Deal over 1100m here. She probably should have won second up too. She has a great record at this distance and should get a great run from barrier 3. Les Bridge runners at Randwick are always something to look for.

(5) Jen Rules is the other I could make a case for at double figure odds. She has a great first up record, with a win and four placings from six starts, and she ran 2nd to Haut Brion Her first up last prep. Consider.

Tip: (1) Positive Peace $8.00 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Seasons $18 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Positive Peace, 0.5 units WIN Seasons

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Race 7

Mostyn Copper Randwick Guineas (1600m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Mostyn Copper Randwick Guineas (1600m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

1. Aegon (8) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: M Baker & A Forsman
2.62.62.52.62.62.6
2. King's Legacy (3) J: Tom Marquand (56.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
2321262620.521
3. North Pacific (4) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
777.576.86.5
4. Prime Star (11) J: Jean Van Overmeire (56.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
262626262523
5. Peltzer (13) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
999.598.49.5
6. Lion's Roar (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: J A O'shea
2321262119.823
7. Mo'unga (2) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
5.55.5555.25.5
8. The Elanora (12) J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
414141413441
9. Bucharest (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
201201301201201151
10. Marsannay (1) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
414151343741
11. Here To Shock (7) J: Glen Boss (56.5kg) T: Brent Stanley
817171618381
12. Wheelhouse (6) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
465141514771
13. Harmony Rose (9) J: Joshua Parr (54.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
8.58.5998.79

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

A fascinating Randwick Guineas awaits us.

(1) Aegon couldn’t have been more impressive on his Australian debut in the Hobartville Stakes, slicing through runners before powering away to win. That took his record to 5/5 and he beat many of these that he meets again today. My query with him is that all five wins have been on soft ground and he’s bred by Sacred Falls out of a Zabeel mare. So everything about him screams wet tracker. His connections have come out and said a couple of his wins in NZ were on firm enough tracks, so there is every chance he could just come out and blow these away.

(5) Peltzer is a good price here at $10. He’s a Randwick horse. He’s undefeated from five starts here at Randwick, but has now had four starts at Rosehill without winning. He started favourite against Aegon in the Hobartville, and now we’re seeing him $10 back on him home track vs Aegon at $2.10.

(7) Mo’unga ran well at his first start for the new stable, which was in Melbourne in the CS Hayes Stakes. Second up, up to the mile and the blinkers go on. He looks ready to run a big race.

(2) King’s Legacy was well beaten in the Hobartville but he tends to improve significantly second up. He’s a huge price and may well be done racing soon, but this is a grand final stable with a valuable colt, so I’m expecting some improvement.

Blinkers also go on (4) North Pacific for the first time. He’s third up and likely at his grand final so that’s always worth noting.

Aegon could belt these, but I’ll be on Peltzer, Mo’unga and King’s Legacy.

Tip: (5) Peltzer $10 Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Mo'unga $6.50 PlayUp

Value: (2) King's Legacy $27 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Peltzer, 0.5 units WIN Mo'unga, 0.25 units WIN King's Legacy

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Race 8

Heineken Canterbury Stks (1300m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Heineken Canterbury Stks (1300m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

1. Bivouac (8) J: Glen Boss (59kg) T: James Cummings
2.92.92.82.82.92.9
2. Dreamforce (5) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: John Thompson
1314141413.414
3. Samadoubt (6) J: Joshua Parr (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
2321262123.523
4. Kementari (9) J: Ms Rachel King (59kg) T: James Cummings
5. Victorem (11) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: Ms J Graham
2626262125.526
6. Dawn Passage (7) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
88887.78.5
7. Masked Crusader (2) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
5.55.55.565.75.5
8. Savatiano (3) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: James Cummings
3.83.93.83.93.94
9. Madam Rouge (4) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
1312131312.212
10. Mizzy (1) J: Regan Bayliss (57kg) T: A J Cummings
616767716371
11. Prague (10) J: Tom Marquand (56kg) T: Annabel Neasham

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

If (1) Bivouac turned up at his best, this would be all over. There are some reservations over him after his failure first up, but I don’t think he’s at his best first up nor at 1000m. Second up at 1300m should suit him much better, and if he ran up to his performance in The Everest at the same stage of his last prep, he’d be winning this.

(2) Dreamforce has the potential to run a cheeky race here at double figure odds. He’s got a great first up record and a great record at Randwick. He’s never finished out of the top two at this distance, his only start over track and distance was a win, and he resumes with blinkers on. He can jump straight to the front and give a good sight.

(7) Masked Crusader returned at his best first up. His final 200m was electric. This is a big step up from a G3 with 53.5kg to a WFA G1 with 59kg, but I’m excited to see how he measures up at this level.

(8) Savatiano in my opinion isn’t up to beating the elite horses at WFA G1 level. She had her birthday first up. She can still run well – she’s finished in the top two in seven of her eight starts when second up – but I think she’ll find a couple better.

Waller mentioned he expected a big run from (9) Madam Rouge who had no luck in defeat last start.

Tip: (2) Dreamforce E/W $12.20/$3.15 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Dreamforce

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Race 9

Sharp Extensive It Aspiration (1600m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Sharp Extensive It Aspiration (1600m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Nettoyer (6) J: Michael Poy (59kg) T: Ms W Roche
1817171819.215
2. Rondinella (9) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: J A O'shea
615141414051
3. Girl Tuesday (13) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg) T: C E Conners
343434343441
4. Miss Sentimental (4) J: James Mcdonald (54.5kg) T: C J Waller
2731313129.534
5. She's Ideel (10) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4.84.84.8554.8
6. Cliff's Art (14) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: Matthew Smith
1314131313.415
7. Rocha Clock (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: J A O'shea
6.565.55.56.26
8. Scarlet Dream (1) J: Sam Clipperton (54kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
9. Outback Diva (12) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54kg) T: R & M Freedman
77.57.57.57.37.5
10. Missybeel (8) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker
515151514771
11. On The White Turf (18) J: Tom Marquand (54kg) T: R & M Freedman
313131313334
12. Nimalee (7) J: Ms Rachel King (53kg) T: Matthew Smith
13. Polly Grey (11) J: Tommy Berry (53kg) T: C J Waller
6.56.57.575.87
14. Aliferous (17) J: Ms Alysha Collett (53kg) T: K A Lees
15. Archanna (16) J: Glen Boss (53kg) T: C J Waller
16. Le Lude (3) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: John Thompson
5.55.54.655.15
17. Welsh Legend (15) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53kg) T: C J Waller
18. Selica (2) J: Andrew Adkins (53kg) T: Annabel Neasham
141515151615

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 5:41pm (AEDT)

This is a wide-open end to the card and I’ll be specking a few roughies here.

(9) Outback Diva was less than a length away from April Rain two starts ago before going to Canberra and bolting in to win the Canberra Mile. She draws awkward here so she’s likely to be a fair way back, but she’s a chance at big odds.

(15) Archanna was well supported first up but failed to fire. Respect that market move for her. She might be better suited over further, but it’s worth noting she beat the favourite for this race last prep. Drawn terribly but she’s another at big odds that has claims.

(18) Selica has probably been waiting for a firm track. She’s been scratched a number of times in recent weeks. She hasn’t had much luck all prep and at $41 I’m going to be having a peanut on her.

(7) Rocha Clock has a good second up record so can improve.

(5) She’s Ideel was terrific first up but might just be better next start over further. (12) Nimalee was very good first up but looks short enough.

Chances galore here.

Tip: (9) Outback Diva $9.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Rocha Clock $9.50 Sportsbet

Value: (18) Selica $26 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Outback Diva, 0.5 units WIN Rocha Clock, 0.25 unit WIN Selica

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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