Racing Tips

Newcastle Racing Tips: Friday, March 5th

Newcastle is the venue this Friday for the Newcastle Newmarket Handicap, which is the highlight of the eight race card. Joshua Reed has found three bets below.

by
Joshua Reed
4 March 2021

Newcastle hosts racing in New South Wales this Friday with the highlight of the afternoon, the Group 3 Newcastle Newmarket Handicap.

With nothing but fine weather in the lead-up and on race day, expect the track to play fairly on no worse than a soft 5.

The rail is in the 8m position from the 1000m – 400m and 7m the remainder but that should pose no issue on this fair Newcastle track.

Joshua Reed has gone over the form and found three bets in Race 1, Race 5 and Race 7.

Race 1

Australian Bloodstock Plate-C1 (2340m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Australian Bloodstock Plate-C1 (2340m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. Once Were Lost (5) J: Keagan Latham (59kg) T: Matthew Smith	26	26	31	31	29	23
2. Spanish Peaks (9) J: Brandon Griffiths (59kg) T: Brooke Somers	126	151	151	151	191	151
3. Flash Panther (6) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: C J Waller	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
4. Point Counterpoint (10) J: Sam Clipperton (57.5kg) T: Stirling Osland	8.5	9.5	12	9.5	8.6	10
5. Lucky Siren (3) J: Ms Alena Skerritt (57kg) T: Ms J Shapter	151	201	151	251	281	151
6. Mick An' Nicks (7) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: C Karakatsanis	19	20	26	19	19.2	23
7. Buckin' Lucky (8) J: Darryl Mclellan (55.5kg) T: D Lane	12	12	12	13	12.2	12
8. Chenin Blanc (4) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: P & P Snowden	2.4	2.3	2.25	2.3	2.3	2.25
9. Singapura (1) J: Jeff Penza (55kg) T: Glen Thompson	4.8	5	5.5	5	5.1	5
10. Spinpix (2) J: Ashley Morgan (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	13	13	12	13	13	12

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

I went with a bloke who is in some form since changing stables and coming interstate.

(4) Point Counterpoint changed to Stirling Osland’s stable in late January and since coming to the stable, the horse has produced his best form with two seconds and a win in his three starts. His latest start over 2300m was run at a hot pace and most of the back markers finished off the race well in decent time for a soft 6. The Bull Point gelding was beaten on the line by half a length by the favourite Olympic Gaze and I thought the run was pretty good for his first attempt at 2300m. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pace here, so it won’t surprise me if they go forward or try to slot in from the wide gate.

This is a wide-open race and with the favourite running 2300m in poor time two starts ago, I think our bloke can run a huge race at each-way odds.

Tip: (4) Point Counterpoint $12.00/$3.40 E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Point Counterpoint FIXED, 1 unit PLACE Point Counterpoint FIXED

Race 2

New Zealand Bloodstock Mdn (1200m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2 New Zealand Bloodstock Mdn (1200m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. At The Cove (8) J: Shane S Arnold (59kg) T: D J Nugent	126	151	151	201	241	151
2. First Fleet (3) J: Robbie Brewer (59kg) T: Mick Attard	35	41	51	41	51	51
3. Nothing Is Easy (7) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: Ms K Owen	201	201	201	301	321	151
4. Bullet Hero (1) J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	7	7	6.5	7.5	6.6	6.5
5. Green Flash (4) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller	1.6	1.6	1.65	1.6	1.58	1.6
6. Immaculacy (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	3.8	3.9	4	4	3.7	3.8
7. Luminoso (2) J: Tim Clark (58.5kg) T: A P Ball	12	12	11	12	11.8	11
8. Minks Music (5) J: Darryl Mclellan (56.5kg) T: D Lane	35	41	51	41	59	41

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Sharp Electronics Group Mdn (1600m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Sharp Electronics Group Mdn (1600m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Legend Has It (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: L J Bridge	3.4	3.6	3.4	3.5	3.55	3.6
2. Marsh Lillie (8) J: Ms Alena Skerritt (59kg) T: S Sampson	126	151	151	201	241	151
3. Timor Road (1) J: Jay Ford (59kg) T: T J Drayton	46	51	51	51	63	41
4. Dear Sibling (9) J: Ms Alysha Collett (58.5kg) T: Gary & John Moore
5. Stonehenge (6) J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg) T: J A O'shea	2.7	2.6	2.35	2.6	2.55	2.5
6. Dane Central (7) J: Tom Sherry (57kg) T: M C Vella	61	67	81	71	81	71
7. Gateaux (2) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.9	2.85	2.7
8. La Cabana (4) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: A J Cummings	11	11	15	12	11.6	12
9. Loyal Romance (3) J: Andrew Gibbons (56.5kg) T: John W Ramsey

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Simtrack Mdn Hcp (1400m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Simtrack Mdn Hcp (1400m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Members Only (6) J: James Mcdonald (59.5kg) T: Nathan Doyle	2.3	2.25	2.3	2.25	2.4	2.4
2. Allthehills (7) J: Jeff Penza (58kg) T: Ben Hill	35	34	41	41	40	34
3. Parochial (9) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
4. Vanilla Sky (3) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Gary & John Moore	1.9	1.95	1.95	2	1.92	1.9
5. Another Sonette (1) J: Andrew Adkins (55kg) T: M J Dwyer	31	31	34	31	28.5	31
6. Bella Figura (8) J: Jay Ford (55kg) T: Ms G Englebrecht	14	13	12	14	13.2	12
7. Cadouin (5) J: Shane S Arnold (55kg) T: Mick Wilson	91	91	151	126	101	126
8. Curioso (4) J: Ben Looker (55kg) T: A P Ball	23	21	20	21	23	19
9. Kandos Tiger (2) J: Ms Amelia Denby (55kg) T: Ms D Lumsden	31	31	34	34	29.5	31

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Kam-Cool Refrig.Posthaste-Bm78 (900m)
3:50pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Kam-Cool Refrig.Posthaste-Bm78 (900m) 3:50pm (AEDT)
1. Super (10) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: M S Minervini	16	15	15	16	16.2	14
2. Invincible Kiss (5) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: Wayne Seelin	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.6	2.7	2.5
3. The Drake (1) J: Ashley Morgan (55kg) T: Ms J Graham	7	7	8	7	6.9	7
4. Heaven's High (3) J: Ben Looker (55kg) T: Stirling Osland	23	26	26	26	26.5	23
5. Mr Polar (2) J: Ms Winona Costin (55kg) T: C P Porter	2.3	2.3	2.35	2.4	2.15	2.4
6. Ballistic Moon (9) J: Keagan Latham (55kg) T: G Portelli	14	12	13	16	15.4	11
7. Adamdeeant (4) J: Mitchell Bell (55kg) T: A P Ball	46	51	67	71	65	51
8. Luff (6) J: Ms Rachel King (55kg) T: J A Sylvester	61	71	91	101	101	71
9. Leogang (8) J: Darryl Mclellan (55kg) T: D Lane
10. Makuba (7) J: Tom Sherry (55kg) T: A P Ball	126	126	101	151	201	151

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

This is a two-horse race, and I am going with the outsider of the two.

(2) Invincible Kiss is coming back to the provincials on the back of two solid placings at Canterbury during the Friday night meetings. Two back she finished 1.2 lengths off Lunar Tramp who has since won a race nicely before backing up a week later to finish 0.1 of a length off Brazen Gem, which is solid for this. Her form over 900m is pretty good, winning twice and placing four times in eight starts with three of those starts being here at Newcastle.

A couple of her Newcastle starts over 900m include narrow losse to Never Talk and a win over Vulpine to break her maiden status and of course a 900m Hawkesbury placing behind Triple Ace. She is drawn ideally and Tommy Berry loves riding at these provincial tracks and he should be able to give her an ideal ride. He should be able to stalk the speed with her before taking over in the straight.

Tip: (2) Invincible Kiss $2.65

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Invincible Kiss FIXED

Race 6

Bella Group Serv. Beaumont Hcp (1400m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Bella Group Serv. Beaumont Hcp (1400m) 4:30pm (AEDT)
1. Tea Leaves (7) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	1.55	1.55	1.6	1.6	1.58	1.55
2. Another Pharoah (1) J: Nash Rawiller (57.5kg) T: P M Perry	17	17	16	17	17.2	17
3. Gulf Of Thailand (3) J: Robbie Dolan (57.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
4. Last Not Least (9) J: Keagan Latham (57.5kg) T: J G Sargent	21	21	26	21	18.2	21
5. Premonitions (5) J: Tom Sherry (57.5kg) T: Alexandre Lemarie	67	81	81	71	97	101
6. Dark Energy (6) J: Christian Reith (57kg) T: James Cummings	11	11	10	9.5	12.2	12
7. Gymnastics (10) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: James Cummings	4.2	4.2	4	4.2	4.05	4
8. Cruel Summer (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55.5kg) T: P M Perry	31	31	31	31	32	31
9. Serenata (2) J: Jay Ford (55.5kg) T: P M Perry	34	34	34	34	41	41
10. Chitabe (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55kg) T: David Payne	10	10	8	9	9.8	10

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Suez Newcastle Newmarket Hcp (1400m)
5:10pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Suez Newcastle Newmarket Hcp (1400m) 5:10pm (AEDT)
1. Cascadian (1) J: James Mcdonald (59kg) T: James Cummings	3.6	3.7	3.8	3.9	3.95	3.8
2. Gem Song (5) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: K A Lees	4.8	4.5	5	4.8	4.75	5
3. Purple Sector (9) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: John Thompson	8.5	8.5	8	8	6.9	8
4. Outrageous (10) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	5.5	6	6	6	5.3	5.5
5. Brave Song (12) J: Robbie Dolan (54.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
6. Asiago (3) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: James Cummings	8	8	8.5	8.5	8.6	8
7. Just Thinkin' (4) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
8. Bottega (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou	3.6	3.6	3.4	3.4	3.75	3.7
9. Academy (11) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: Mark Newnham
10. Maui Girl (7) J: Ms Louise Day (54kg) T: J C Coyle	46	51	61	61	45	41
11. Trophies Galore (6) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: Andrew Robinson	151	151	101	126	151	151
12. Texas Storm (8) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: R R Milligan	91	81	101	101	101	71

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

Sticking with (8) Bottega in a wide-open Newmarket Handicap. Like his usual fashion, he has just had the one trial coming into the preparation and it was a good one behind Eduardo. I expect him to be very forward being from the Ryan/Alexiou stable and he proved last preparation and in the past that some of his best runs have been early in his preparation. Last preparation he was unlucky in his first two outings at Randwick and Rosehill, going down by less than a length in both and not getting much luck.

He carries no weight here and is drawn well, so I expect him to sit somewhere in the middle of the pack and off the fence. With the likelihood of a good track, I think they will be disappointed if he is anywhere outside the top 3.

Tip: (8) Bottega $4.80

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Bottega FIXED

Race 8

Novocastrian Electrical (Bm64) (1200m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Novocastrian Electrical (Bm64) (1200m) 5:50pm (AEDT)
1. Bryan's Babe (9) J: Hugh Bowman (60.5kg) T: Darren Egan	6.5	6.5	4.6	5.5	6.6	7
2. Danzibar Dancer (1) J: Andrew Adkins (60.5kg) T: J Louizos	41	41	34	34	39	41
3. So Far Away (6) J: Tommy Berry (59.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	3.4	3.3	3.2	3.3	3	3.2
4. The Crimson Idol (8) J: Serg Lisnyy (59.5kg) T: J N Englebrecht	8.5	8.5	8	8.5	8.4	8.5
5. Never Second (5) J: Ms Rachel King (59kg) T: Matthew Vella	3.3	3.3	3.2	3.4	3.45	3.2
6. Hasty Duchess (10) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: J C Coyle
7. I Say Hello (7) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: K A Lees	4.6	4.8	4.6	4.4	4	5
8. Vivid Art (4) J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	21	21	20	19	16.8	23
9. Calgary Queen (2) J: Mitchell Bell (58kg) T: Brad Widdup	12	12	11	12	10.8	11
10. Miss Eporetto (3) J: Andrew Gibbons (58kg) T: Tim Mcintosh	26	26	21	21	30	26

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 6:01pm (AEDT)

Joshua Reed

Josh has been a racing fan for over 12 years and was down the local as soon as he was legal, blackbooking runners and having a punt most Saturdays. Since taking his racing more seriously, he has gone on to make his name known with goals of one day being apart of the game full-time. All of Josh’s work is proudly Powered by ratings2win.com.au