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Racing Tips

Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, July 3rd

Tim Geers previews all 10 races at Rosehill on Saturday, with his best value bet paying $34!

RosehillRaceCourse

Sydney racing takes place at Rosehill on Saturday with the first of the newly-introduced 10-race cards.

The track is currently rated a Heavy 9 with the rail out 3m the entire circuit.

Tim Geers has done the form for every race on the card, with his best bet coming up in Race 3, while he’s with a $34 chance in Race 5 as his best value bet.

Find his full preview below with his tips and betting strategy.

Best Bet: Race 3 – (2) No Compromise

Best Value: Race 5 – (7) Wander

BetDeluxe

191632

Race 1

Cleanaway (Bm72) (1300m)
11:00am (AEDT)

Race 1

Cleanaway (Bm72) (1300m)
11:00am (AEDT)

1. Tycoonist (2) J: Tommy Berry (60kg) T: C J Waller
2.052.052.152.21.982
2. Rustic Steel (11) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: K A Lees
3. The Empire (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (59kg) T: G Portelli
7.576.577.66.5
4. Sir Davy (4) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
5. Sahra (9) J: Tyler Schiller (57kg) T: P & P Snowden
6.56.5666.66.5
6. Rock My Wand (5) J: Andrew Adkins (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
111112101111
7. Selburose (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
8. Bazooka (6) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: David Payne
776.576.26.5
9. Yangarra Rose (10) J: Regan Bayliss (55kg) T: P & P Snowden
10. Zariya (1) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: John Thompson
1516171717.217
11. Honeycreeper (3) J: Ms Rachel King (52kg) T: James Cummings
1111101112.212

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 11:01am (AEDT)

Can’t be diving into $2.50 for (1) Tycoonist here. He’s been beaten in his past three starts, albeit two of those he started double figure odds. He was ridden more positively last start though and was run down as favourite over this track and distance. That was in nearly identical conditions to what he’ll face today and he gets a very similar draw. He’s going to look the winner but whether he can hang on is the query.

(3) The Empire comes off a dominant win on heavy ground at Warwick Farm. He was able to lead and race away on that occasion. He’ll either lead or sit outside the leader here and can measure up, though it’s a step up from midweek grade.

(9) Yangarra Rose pulled up lame two starts ago and then bolted in at Kembla last start when well backed. That was on heavy ground and although this is harder, she’s always had talent.

Tip: (3) The Empire $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

191632

Race 2

Tab Highway Hcp (C3) (1100m)
11:35am (AEDT)

Race 2

Tab Highway Hcp (C3) (1100m)
11:35am (AEDT)

1. I Am Capitan (10) J: Tyler Schiller (61.5kg) T: D R Mirfin
1112121211.813
2. Absolute Trust (5) J: Joshua Parr (59.5kg) T: Tim Mcintosh
776.56.56.97
3. Hellenism (1) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: Aiden St Vincent
3.73.73.63.83.63.6
4. Anethole (11) J: Brenton Avdulla (58kg) T: Cody Morgan
8.58.58.58.58.28.5
5. Safe Landing (8) J: Andrew Adkins (58kg) T: Kurt Goldman
2731343428.534
6. If You Think So (16) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (57.5kg) T: J A Sylvester
2621212625.523
7. Dreaming For More (2) J: Ms Louise Day (57kg) T: P N Mills
2321212123.523
8. Melik (17) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Paul Messara
88887.48
9. King's Trust (18) J: Jean Van Overmeire (56kg) T: T J Robinson
10. Warrah Flash (7) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: S C Jones
11. Deploys Alone (3) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: Mark Schmetzer
2626262626.526
12. Moetta (15) J: Ms Rachel King (55kg) T: R P Northam
1818171717.419
13. Very Sharp (4) J: Grant Buckley (54.5kg) T: R P Northam
14. Knight Driver (6) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: C Lundholm
9.59.59.51010.29
15. Lady River (13) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: S I Singleton
9.59.59.59.59.29.5
16. Belitsa (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Cody Morgan
414141414351
17. Denmiss (14) J: Unknown (54kg) T: W A Hudd
18. Private Agent (12) J: Andrew Adkins (54.5kg) T: Kurt Goldman

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 11:36am (AEDT)

(3) Hellenism has been backed as if unbeatable in early betting here. He’s been very competitive in this sort of race previously, and he’s raced in two much harder races to start this prep. First up he ran 2nd in a F&M BM78 and last start was beaten 2.25L in a BM72 on heavy ground at Warwick Farm. Looks primed dropping back to a Highway with barrier 1. My concern is the ground, with all of his wins coming on good tracks. He’s run well on wet ground, but he faded after leading on this sort of surface last start.

(1) I Am Capitan has a terrific first up record with a win and five 2nds from seven starts. He’s not completely hopeless on this sort of ground and he’s been competitive in races like this in the past. 3kg claimer on from an awkward draw is a query but $21/$5 is a decent each way price.

(2) Absolute Trust won a similar race first up last prep before failing in two subsequent starts. Has had a long time off but did win a recent trial. Query would be fitness first up on this ground with so long off, but he’s got some class.

(15) Lady River won well first up in maiden company and backed it up by sitting three-wide the trip and winning again last start. Looks to have returned very well and can go close.

 

Tip: (15) Lady River $11 TAB

Also Backing: (2) Absolute Trust $11 Bet365

Value: (1) I Am Capitan E/W $21/$5 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W I Am Capitan, 0.5 units WIN Lady River, 0.5 units WIN Absolute Trust

191632

Race 3

The Agency Real Estate (Bm78) (2400m)
12:10pm (AEDT)

Race 3

The Agency Real Estate (Bm78) (2400m)
12:10pm (AEDT)

1. Approach Discreet (10) J: Jean Van Overmeire (61.5kg) T: A R Mcgregor
1110101111.210
2. No Compromise (8) J: Tommy Berry (60kg) T: C J Waller
2.352.32.32.42.352.3
3. Rider In The Snow (3) J: Jason Collett (60kg) T: K A Lees
4. Desert Path (12) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
313126312631
5. Kaapfever (1) J: Regan Bayliss (59.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
1112121212.211
6. Brown Thomas (14) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: G K White
2121262625.521
7. Spencer (9) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: Bjorn Baker
111212121012
8. Sound Of Cannons (7) J: Brenton Avdulla (54.5kg) T: J A O'shea
9101097.79.5
9. Admit It (6) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: G M Brown
5.55.555.55.55.5
10. Sepulchre (2) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (54kg) T: Joseph Ible
11. Sir Aglovale (13) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: C J Waller
191817171919
12. Kitzbuhel (5) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: T P Donnelly
13. Poulton Le Sands (11) J: Ms Louise Day (53kg) T: A J Denham
1616171616.216
14. Chief Kidder (4) J: Andrew Adkins (52kg) T: Mark De Montfort

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 12:11pm (AEDT)

I think if (2) No Compromise holds her form she’ll win again here. She’s had three starts in Australia, resulting in a slashing 3rd and two subsequent wins. Both of those wins have been in this grade. The first of those was over 2400m, before dropping back to 2000m last start. She steps back up to 2400m today which I think is a big plus, and she has proven she handles the wet ground. Only slight query is the weight – she’s gone from 54kg to 57kg and now 60kg.

(1) Approach Discreet failed last start but he was racing well before that and did win over this track and distance on heavy ground last prep.

(9) Admit It won at the midweeks last start before weighing in light, resulting in a DQ. He’s flying and will be in the finish again with a 9kg weight pull on the favourite.

Tip: (2) No Compromise $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN No Compromise

191632

Race 4

Ranvet (Bm72) (1100m)
12:45pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Ranvet (Bm72) (1100m)
12:45pm (AEDT)

1. Vreneli (5) J: Jean Van Overmeire (61.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
111111111211
2. Joviality (11) J: Tommy Berry (60.5kg) T: C J Waller
121212121212
3. Magic Ruler (10) J: Jason Collett (58.5kg) T: M J Dunn
6.5766.57.17
4. Fastconi (2) J: Brenton Avdulla (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
6666.55.76
5. Kinloch (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: K A Lees
1212111112.212
6. The Big Easy (7) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9.59.59.59.59.59.5
7. Sixgun (4) J: Joshua Parr (57kg) T: Mark Newnham
554.654.75
8. Yardstick (12) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
1314131411.413
9. Ibaraki (13) J: Jay Ford (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
1110101211.610
10. Ready To Soar (14) J: Tyler Schiller (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
414141514141
11. Isalute (1) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: B A Partelle
12. Miss Jay Fox (15) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
13. Distillate (6) J: Ms Louise Day (55kg) T: Matthew Dale
121110121212
14. Embeller (8) J: Andrew Adkins (54kg) T: John Thompson
15. Marcassin (3) J: Unknown (55kg) T: T J Robinson
273131313234

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

Could make a genuine case for nine horses here, which is probably why we’re getting $6.00 the field.

Interestingly, I was pretty happy to take on (4) Fastconi, who is the favourite. She had her birthday two starts ago and was beaten by Magic Ruler last start. She gets a weight swing but not all that keen on her.

(3) Magic Ruler has returned in great form. He won first up on heavy ground at Canterbury, then sat three-wide the trip second up, before bouncing back with a strong win over track and distance here, which was also on heavy ground. Clearly loves the wet and is starting to put it all together. Up in weight and a tricky draw, but can win again.

(6) The Big Easy is an interesting runner. Struggles to win but is always around the mark, and his one career win did come on soft ground, so he may well love the heavy track today.

(9) Ibaraki won well enough at the very short odds on debut at Canterbury. Whether he’s ready for this sort of grade yet is the query, but I don’t think this stable would put him in a race like this if he wasn’t. He’s also bred by Darci Brahma and they generally swim, so he should appreciate track conditions here. Interestingly, Tommy Berry rode him on debut but rides Joviality for Waller.

(13) Distillate an interesting runner stepping up from a Highway Handicap.

Tip: (3) Magic Ruler E/W $9.00/$3.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Magic Ruler

191632

Race 5

Midway (Bm72) (1100m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Midway (Bm72) (1100m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

1. Kosciusko (6) J: Patrick Scorse (62kg) T: J & G Lee
343134343234
2. Catapult (4) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (61.5kg) T: Richard Litt
1212121212.212
3. Switched (7) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (60.5kg) T: Brad Widdup
4.43.94.24.64.454.2
4. Mccormack (15) J: Ms Louise Day (60.5kg) T: T J Bartley
354134343441
5. Buckin' Beauty (14) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: D Lane
232120212026
6. Mr Polar (18) J: Jean Van Overmeire (58.5kg) T: C P Porter
273121262031
7. Wander (12) J: Jay Ford (58.5kg) T: Richard Litt
262121212526
8. Just Field (17) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: D Lane
7.587.57.56.58
9. Our Bellagio Miss (10) J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg) T: G D Hickman
4.244.24.44.63.9
10. Go For Gold (5) J: Jason Collett (57.5kg) T: Ms K Gavenlock
1110111111.210
11. Rifles (8) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: B A Partelle
12. Sedition (2) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: Richard Litt
2019182020.518
13. Piping Roller (9) J: Chad Lever (56kg) T: Claire Lever
131312121214
14. Nicci's Song (1) J: Grant Buckley (54kg) T: G W Murray
15. Kawaikini (11) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: J C Coyle
1518151616.618
16. Pearl Roan (13) J: Unknown (54kg) T: S J Hodge
17. Colonel (3) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: Anthony Mountney
232121211826
18. Bigger Than Thorn (16) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Brad Widdup

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

The first of the Midway races recently introduced to Saturday cards in Sydney.

I think the $26 about (7) Wander is a decent bet here. He may well be outclassed but his first up record and his record on heavy ground are both very appealing. He’s had five starts first up and five on heavy ground, and has finished in the top two in four of them. Recent trials have been OK and he’s a knockout hope with $7.00 the place available.

(9) Our Bellagio Miss does look the horse to beat. Was only beaten 2.1L first up after sitting three-wide the trip. That was behind Malkovich, who then went to Melbourne and won. Up in weight today but senior jockey goes on and she looks a deadset wet tracker, with all four career wins coming on rain-affected ground.

(14) Nicci’s Fling an interesting runner, the three-year-old coming into this first up after a few wins in the country.

Tip: (7) Wander $26/$7.00 Ladbrokes

Saver: (9) Our Bellagio Miss $3.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Wander, 0.5 units WIN Our Bellagio Miss

191632

Race 6

Lynette Lamphee Memorial-Bm88 (1500m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Lynette Lamphee Memorial-Bm88 (1500m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

1. Grand Piano (4) J: Nash Rawiller (60.5kg) T: John Thompson
66.57.577.17
2. Flambeur (1) J: Jay Ford (59.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
126126101101131101
3. Kirwan's Lane (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (59.5kg) T: J A O'shea
4. Military Zone (5) J: Tyler Schiller (59.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
5. New Arrangement (7) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: C J Waller
121212121012
6. Morton's Fork (9) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (58kg) T: Richard Litt
1011018110111181
7. Oscar Zulu (11) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: C J Waller
3.63.63.53.73.353.5
8. Canasta (3) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4.64.54.84.84.54.2
9. Cisco Bay (6) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
3.83.93.83.843.9
10. Intuition (8) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: Kurt Goldman
101126101151131126
11. Ruby Tuesday (2) J: Ms Rachel King (52kg) T: G Portelli
6.56.55.56.56.27

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

(7) Oscar Zulu is flying and comes off a dominant win over this track and distance on heavy ground last start. He sat outside the leader on that occasion and toyed with his rivals. Hopeful of similar tactics today from the wide gate, but if he can get a good run he’ll be very hard to beat.

(1) Grand Piano drops in grade and goes up in weight as a result. He was narrowly beaten by (5) New Arrangement last start, but does meet him 4kg better at the weights. New Arrangement was first up on that occasion, so I suppose you need to weigh up fitness improvement with the additional weight.

(9) Cisco Bay loves the wet, though probably prefers it soft than heavy. Won well first up over 1400m at Randwick and normally goes well second up. Berry goes on instead of riding for Waller so that’s a positive lead.

Tip: (7) Oscar Zulu $4.40 Sportsbet

Saver: (1) Grand Piano $6.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Oscar Zulu, 0.25 units WIN Grand Piano

191632

Race 7

Quayclean (Bm72) (1500m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Quayclean (Bm72) (1500m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

1. Badoosh (3) J: Jason Collett (62kg) T: M J Dunn
1718171716.618
2. Nyami (8) J: Tommy Berry (62kg) T: C J Waller
1614141515.414
3. Navy Cross (1) J: Nash Rawiller (60.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
4. La Chevalee (14) J: Ms Louise Day (59.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.73.73.73.73.83.7
5. Papal Warrior (6) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
4444.23.754.2
6. O'mudgee (11) J: Joshua Parr (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
1414131413.613
7. Bring The Ransom (7) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: Bjorn Baker
8. Bethencourt (2) J: Jay Ford (57kg) T: Ms K Waugh
1515151514.814
9. Mcgeehan (15) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: W P Cave
818167617981
10. Wild Chap (13) J: Tyler Schiller (56.5kg) T: B M Lazzarini
1211121212.612
11. Key (4) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: Matthew Dale
1111111111.411
12. Kaptive (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
1514151615.813
13. Titanium Power (9) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
2326262624.526
14. The Guru (12) J: Andrew Adkins (55.5kg) T: Ms T Bateup
515151515351
15. Buba (5) J: James Innes Jnr (54kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
111112121112

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(4) La Chevalee finds a nice race here. She loves heavy ground, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. She was beaten a length last start after only getting clear late in the race, and prior to that he’d finished 2nd to Kurabui.

(5) Papal Warrior won over 1300m here at Rosehill on heavy ground last start. His record on wet ground is quite good. He steps up to 1500m now which is a query as he’s only placed once from four starts the distance in the past, but he’s in form and gets conditions to suit.

(12) Kaptive wasn’t beaten far first up and didn’t get fully clear. Shouldn’t have that problem here and his only win came on heavy ground.

(2) Nyami carries 52kg but has won back-to-back races and has four wins on wet ground.

Tip: (4) La Chevalee $4.25 Sportsbetting

Saver: (5) Papal Warrior $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN La Chevalee, 0.25 units WIN Papal Warrior

191632

Race 8

Acy Securities (Bm78) (1300m)
3:15pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Acy Securities (Bm78) (1300m)
3:15pm (AEDT)

1. Cognac (7) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
1717171718.819
2. Smart Image (4) J: Tim Clark (58.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
3. Chains Of Honour (11) J: Regan Bayliss (58kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
4. Zell (8) J: Tyler Schiller (58kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
5. Stellar Pauline (10) J: Andrew Adkins (57.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
6. Vitesse (1) J: Nash Rawiller (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
3.33.23.13.33.152.9
7. He's A Hotshot (13) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
8. Epic Dan (6) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: G D Hickman
1111111111.211
9. Papal Warrior (9) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
10. Steel Diamond (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: C J Waller
11. Taksu (3) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: Joseph Pride
3.63.83.43.73.63.8
12. Starla (12) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
44444.14.2
13. St Covet's Spirit (14) J: Unknown (55kg) T: J C Coyle
14. Mollycoddle (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg) T: James Cummings
665.5665.5

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

(2) Smart Image is a bit of a tease, always getting back and running home strongly, but he finds a very winnable race today. Two of his wins have come on soft ground so conditions shouldn’t be too bad for him and he draws well in barrier 4.Tim Clark replaces Keagan Latham and if he’s close enough, he can run past these.

(1) Cognac did nothing at all in his first two Australian starts, but he did start single figures in both of those. He was made to win a trial leading into this and maybe this prep he’ll show some of his old European form. Been gelded in his break, gets blinkers and a cross-over nose band on for the first time today, so they’re certainly trying eeverything.

(6) Vitesse finds another weak race and will be thereabouts.

Tip: (2) Smart Image $4.40 Sportsbet SCRATCHED

Value: (1) Cognac $17 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Smart Image (SCRATCHED), 0.5 units WIN Cognac

191632

Race 9

Elite Sand & Soil (Bm78) (1800m)
3:50pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Elite Sand & Soil (Bm78) (1800m)
3:50pm (AEDT)

1. Berdibek (13) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (66kg) T: J A O'shea
2321212623.521
2. Maserartie Bay (1) J: Keagan Latham (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
888.58.57.98
3. Welsh Legend (9) J: Jason Collett (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
1820122118.619
4. Cinquedea (2) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
5. Criminal Code (3) J: Tommy Berry (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
6. Harpo Marx (7) J: Ms Rachel King (59.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
9.510101010.610
7. Lackeen (14) J: Tim Clark (59.5kg) T: James Cummings
554.84.84.955
8. Master Shuhood (16) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (59kg) T: Richard Litt
1011019110111171
9. Accountability (10) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
2321262620.518
10. Steely (6) J: Joshua Parr (58.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
109.59.5109.79.5
11. Relucent (4) J: Jay Ford (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
12. Shuffle Up (8) J: Jean Van Overmeire (56.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
13. Wicklow (11) J: Brenton Avdulla (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
2.12.152.05222.15
14. Champagne Vega (5) J: Andrew Adkins (54kg) T: Joseph Ible
911019110113181
15. Roseirro (12) J: Tyler Schiller (52kg) T: T J Robinson
9191818113181
16. Nyami (15) J: Unknown (59kg) T: C J Waller

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

(13) Wicklow is undefeated since arriving in Australia, winning three times. The last two of those have been at this track and distance, both on soft ground, so he should once again be very hard to beat.

(7) Lackeen is a horse that will win races here, and he’s not far off, but I don’t like the drop back from 2000m to 1800m today. The form behind No Compromise is good but he tends to have a think about it. Had absolutely every hope and couldn’t win last start, now gets the wide gate today.

Expect sharp improvement from (6) Harpo Marx. Never run a place from five attempts first up from a spell but has placed in all three starts when second up. He was held up in the straight first up and ran 5th, so his effort was good all things considered. Whether he’s ready to win now or needs another start is the query, but I’d be including him in exotics with Wicklow.

(2) Maserartie Bay sat three-deep the trip in Melbourne last start and was only beaten 0.8L. Was beaten 0.2L and 0.1L prior to that. Draws the inside and surely gives a good sight here.

(5) Criminal Code pulled up lame last start and was OK first up so can bounce back.

Tip: (13) Wicklow $2.10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Wicklow

191632

Race 10

Xxxx (Bm78) (1400m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

Race 10

Xxxx (Bm78) (1400m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

1. Invinciano (14) J: Brenton Avdulla (60kg) T: Joseph Pride
2321212624.523
2. Cafe Royal (4) J: Tyler Schiller (59.5kg) T: Nathan Doyle
1312121313.211
3. Saigon (12) J: Tommy Berry (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
9.59.510119.69.5
4. Vitesse (5) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
5. Katalin (11) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: James Cummings
6. La Chevalee (8) J: Ms Louise Day (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
7. Lucicello (15) J: Tim Clark (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
8. Expat (7) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: Mark Newnham
2.92.92.832.752.8
9. Steel Diamond (9) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: C J Waller
3.13.23.33.23.43.5
10. Bring The Ransom (3) J: Regan Bayliss (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
11. Exotic Ruby (6) J: Jason Collett (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
121212121113
12. Miss Einstein (10) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
8777.57.17
13. Ruby Tuesday (1) J: Unknown (57kg) T: G Portelli
14. St Covet's Spirit (2) J: Unknown (57kg) T: J C Coyle
1212111112.412
15. My Demetra (13) J: Andrew Adkins (54kg) T: P & P Snowden

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

The favourite (8) Expat is going to be hard to beat again here after a last-start win over 1300m on heavy ground here, but I’m going to take her on here. I thought there were some very good runs in behind her.

(12) Miss Einstein was backed at long odds and ran home strongly to grab 2nd. Third up now, if she improves off that she’ll be hard to hold out.

(3) Saigon came from last to run 4th, beaten 2.1L and put the writing on the wall that she was getting close to another win. Berry goes on today and at $12 she’s the value.

The other Waller runner in the market is (9) Steel Diamond, who ran Gravina to 0.25L first up. Very good return and has a great record on heavy ground. She goes on top.

Tip: (9) Steel Diamond $5.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (12) Miss Einstein $7.00 PlayUp

Value: (3) Saigon $12 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Steel Diamond, 0.5 units WIN Miss Einstein, 0.5 units WIN Saigon

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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