Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, July 3rd

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 11:01am (AEDT)

Can’t be diving into $2.50 for (1) Tycoonist here. He’s been beaten in his past three starts, albeit two of those he started double figure odds. He was ridden more positively last start though and was run down as favourite over this track and distance. That was in nearly identical conditions to what he’ll face today and he gets a very similar draw. He’s going to look the winner but whether he can hang on is the query.

(3) The Empire comes off a dominant win on heavy ground at Warwick Farm. He was able to lead and race away on that occasion. He’ll either lead or sit outside the leader here and can measure up, though it’s a step up from midweek grade.

(9) Yangarra Rose pulled up lame two starts ago and then bolted in at Kembla last start when well backed. That was on heavy ground and although this is harder, she’s always had talent.

Tip: (3) The Empire $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 11:36am (AEDT)

(3) Hellenism has been backed as if unbeatable in early betting here. He’s been very competitive in this sort of race previously, and he’s raced in two much harder races to start this prep. First up he ran 2nd in a F&M BM78 and last start was beaten 2.25L in a BM72 on heavy ground at Warwick Farm. Looks primed dropping back to a Highway with barrier 1. My concern is the ground, with all of his wins coming on good tracks. He’s run well on wet ground, but he faded after leading on this sort of surface last start.

(1) I Am Capitan has a terrific first up record with a win and five 2nds from seven starts. He’s not completely hopeless on this sort of ground and he’s been competitive in races like this in the past. 3kg claimer on from an awkward draw is a query but $21/$5 is a decent each way price.

(2) Absolute Trust won a similar race first up last prep before failing in two subsequent starts. Has had a long time off but did win a recent trial. Query would be fitness first up on this ground with so long off, but he’s got some class.

(15) Lady River won well first up in maiden company and backed it up by sitting three-wide the trip and winning again last start. Looks to have returned very well and can go close.

 

Tip: (15) Lady River $11 TAB

Also Backing: (2) Absolute Trust $11 Bet365

Value: (1) I Am Capitan E/W $21/$5 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W I Am Capitan, 0.5 units WIN Lady River, 0.5 units WIN Absolute Trust

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 12:11pm (AEDT)

I think if (2) No Compromise holds her form she’ll win again here. She’s had three starts in Australia, resulting in a slashing 3rd and two subsequent wins. Both of those wins have been in this grade. The first of those was over 2400m, before dropping back to 2000m last start. She steps back up to 2400m today which I think is a big plus, and she has proven she handles the wet ground. Only slight query is the weight – she’s gone from 54kg to 57kg and now 60kg.

(1) Approach Discreet failed last start but he was racing well before that and did win over this track and distance on heavy ground last prep.

(9) Admit It won at the midweeks last start before weighing in light, resulting in a DQ. He’s flying and will be in the finish again with a 9kg weight pull on the favourite.

Tip: (2) No Compromise $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN No Compromise

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

Could make a genuine case for nine horses here, which is probably why we’re getting $6.00 the field.

Interestingly, I was pretty happy to take on (4) Fastconi, who is the favourite. She had her birthday two starts ago and was beaten by Magic Ruler last start. She gets a weight swing but not all that keen on her.

(3) Magic Ruler has returned in great form. He won first up on heavy ground at Canterbury, then sat three-wide the trip second up, before bouncing back with a strong win over track and distance here, which was also on heavy ground. Clearly loves the wet and is starting to put it all together. Up in weight and a tricky draw, but can win again.

(6) The Big Easy is an interesting runner. Struggles to win but is always around the mark, and his one career win did come on soft ground, so he may well love the heavy track today.

(9) Ibaraki won well enough at the very short odds on debut at Canterbury. Whether he’s ready for this sort of grade yet is the query, but I don’t think this stable would put him in a race like this if he wasn’t. He’s also bred by Darci Brahma and they generally swim, so he should appreciate track conditions here. Interestingly, Tommy Berry rode him on debut but rides Joviality for Waller.

(13) Distillate an interesting runner stepping up from a Highway Handicap.

Tip: (3) Magic Ruler E/W $9.00/$3.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Magic Ruler

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

The first of the Midway races recently introduced to Saturday cards in Sydney.

I think the $26 about (7) Wander is a decent bet here. He may well be outclassed but his first up record and his record on heavy ground are both very appealing. He’s had five starts first up and five on heavy ground, and has finished in the top two in four of them. Recent trials have been OK and he’s a knockout hope with $7.00 the place available.

(9) Our Bellagio Miss does look the horse to beat. Was only beaten 2.1L first up after sitting three-wide the trip. That was behind Malkovich, who then went to Melbourne and won. Up in weight today but senior jockey goes on and she looks a deadset wet tracker, with all four career wins coming on rain-affected ground.

(14) Nicci’s Fling an interesting runner, the three-year-old coming into this first up after a few wins in the country.

Tip: (7) Wander $26/$7.00 Ladbrokes

Saver: (9) Our Bellagio Miss $3.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Wander, 0.5 units WIN Our Bellagio Miss

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

(7) Oscar Zulu is flying and comes off a dominant win over this track and distance on heavy ground last start. He sat outside the leader on that occasion and toyed with his rivals. Hopeful of similar tactics today from the wide gate, but if he can get a good run he’ll be very hard to beat.

(1) Grand Piano drops in grade and goes up in weight as a result. He was narrowly beaten by (5) New Arrangement last start, but does meet him 4kg better at the weights. New Arrangement was first up on that occasion, so I suppose you need to weigh up fitness improvement with the additional weight.

(9) Cisco Bay loves the wet, though probably prefers it soft than heavy. Won well first up over 1400m at Randwick and normally goes well second up. Berry goes on instead of riding for Waller so that’s a positive lead.

Tip: (7) Oscar Zulu $4.40 Sportsbet

Saver: (1) Grand Piano $6.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Oscar Zulu, 0.25 units WIN Grand Piano

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(4) La Chevalee finds a nice race here. She loves heavy ground, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. She was beaten a length last start after only getting clear late in the race, and prior to that he’d finished 2nd to Kurabui.

(5) Papal Warrior won over 1300m here at Rosehill on heavy ground last start. His record on wet ground is quite good. He steps up to 1500m now which is a query as he’s only placed once from four starts the distance in the past, but he’s in form and gets conditions to suit.

(12) Kaptive wasn’t beaten far first up and didn’t get fully clear. Shouldn’t have that problem here and his only win came on heavy ground.

(2) Nyami carries 52kg but has won back-to-back races and has four wins on wet ground.

Tip: (4) La Chevalee $4.25 Sportsbetting

Saver: (5) Papal Warrior $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN La Chevalee, 0.25 units WIN Papal Warrior

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

(2) Smart Image is a bit of a tease, always getting back and running home strongly, but he finds a very winnable race today. Two of his wins have come on soft ground so conditions shouldn’t be too bad for him and he draws well in barrier 4.Tim Clark replaces Keagan Latham and if he’s close enough, he can run past these.

(1) Cognac did nothing at all in his first two Australian starts, but he did start single figures in both of those. He was made to win a trial leading into this and maybe this prep he’ll show some of his old European form. Been gelded in his break, gets blinkers and a cross-over nose band on for the first time today, so they’re certainly trying eeverything.

(6) Vitesse finds another weak race and will be thereabouts.

Tip: (2) Smart Image $4.40 Sportsbet SCRATCHED

Value: (1) Cognac $17 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Smart Image (SCRATCHED), 0.5 units WIN Cognac

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

(13) Wicklow is undefeated since arriving in Australia, winning three times. The last two of those have been at this track and distance, both on soft ground, so he should once again be very hard to beat.

(7) Lackeen is a horse that will win races here, and he’s not far off, but I don’t like the drop back from 2000m to 1800m today. The form behind No Compromise is good but he tends to have a think about it. Had absolutely every hope and couldn’t win last start, now gets the wide gate today.

Expect sharp improvement from (6) Harpo Marx. Never run a place from five attempts first up from a spell but has placed in all three starts when second up. He was held up in the straight first up and ran 5th, so his effort was good all things considered. Whether he’s ready to win now or needs another start is the query, but I’d be including him in exotics with Wicklow.

(2) Maserartie Bay sat three-deep the trip in Melbourne last start and was only beaten 0.8L. Was beaten 0.2L and 0.1L prior to that. Draws the inside and surely gives a good sight here.

(5) Criminal Code pulled up lame last start and was OK first up so can bounce back.

Tip: (13) Wicklow $2.10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Wicklow

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

The favourite (8) Expat is going to be hard to beat again here after a last-start win over 1300m on heavy ground here, but I’m going to take her on here. I thought there were some very good runs in behind her.

(12) Miss Einstein was backed at long odds and ran home strongly to grab 2nd. Third up now, if she improves off that she’ll be hard to hold out.

(3) Saigon came from last to run 4th, beaten 2.1L and put the writing on the wall that she was getting close to another win. Berry goes on today and at $12 she’s the value.

The other Waller runner in the market is (9) Steel Diamond, who ran Gravina to 0.25L first up. Very good return and has a great record on heavy ground. She goes on top.

Tip: (9) Steel Diamond $5.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (12) Miss Einstein $7.00 PlayUp

Value: (3) Saigon $12 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Steel Diamond, 0.5 units WIN Miss Einstein, 0.5 units WIN Saigon