Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, July 3rd

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 11:51am (AEDT)

(1) Mennea was far too good on debut at Donald under a great ride by Linda Meech. Steps up in class and draws barrier one but looks a deserving favourite.

(2) The Art Of Flying looks the danger. He got into a hopeless position at Sale first up from a wide gate, getting a mile back and hitting the line well for 3rd. Looks ready for 1200m and Melham sticks.

(6) Regulus gets Kah on debut which is intriguing. The Werribee trial with Lane on was good late, but he was very slowly away which is the query.

The Art Of Flying has come out. Not keen on Mennea at $1.75 and happy to stay out.

Tip: (6) Regulus- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Getting a bit sick of this series, but (2) Reliable Dude is the horse in form that should be hard to beat again. He was huge against the bias at Sandown and backed it up with a strong win with 60kg last start. Gets in well at the weights here and should be hard to beat again.

(3) Seb Song has been given no hope his last two. Convinced he’s up to these and gets a huge jockey switch with Kah replacing Gaudray, whilst also dropping 3kg. Should get a good tempo and I think Flemington will be ideal.

(7) Merle The Pearl was overs at the early price, but into single figures now is probably short enough. She was dominant on the synthetic two back and very good last start at Sandown in a bm70. So often we’ve seen in these 3yo series that the different form can often be the best.

(1) Rathlin is racing well and maps nicely, next best.

Tip: (2) Reliable Dude- $4.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (3) Seb Song- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Reliable Dude, 1 unit WIN Seb Song

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

With the 2nd favourite scratching, (2) Grand Promenade, who I could’ve backed at $1.85, is into $1.40 and not worth unloading on. Should just win.

(5) Master Chum is a good chance to run on into 2nd if you want to play an exacta.

Tip: (2) Grand Promenade- $1.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(1) Royalzel was too strong from the back on a heavy track in Sydney last start. Back onto a firmer track is potentially some query, and from my understanding, Willo won’t be riding due to COVID restrictions unless something changes in the next day, which is a knock.

(5) Cardigan Queen is a handy horse but I have queries on her getting to 1600m. With Maher/Eustace it generally isn’t an issue, but I’m not sure about her at the trip.

(2) Celestial Fury won a fairly average race over 1420m on debut at $26. Looks suited at 1600m but does get penalised at the weights and had the perfect run there.

(11) Forbidden City was one of the better runs of that race, getting a long way back and hitting the line in the fastest last 600/400m. Don’t think 1600m will be an issue and Kah sticks down on 54kg.

(6) Bon Vivant was good late there and was on debut. His last 200m was the 2nd fastest of the race and he’ll eat up 1600m- looks a Derby type.

 

Tip: (11) Forbidden City- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) Bon Vivant- $7.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Forbidden City, 0.5 units WIN Bon Vivant

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

Strange race because I’m not sure any of these are much good. (2) Star Of Uma went down narrowly twice to start the prep but put it all together 3rd up on speed and did it easily. She’s only been in benchmark grade, but you go back to her last Melbourne trip and she was a huge run for 3rd in listed grade at Sandown, sticking on a very fast tempo and running 3rd to Hindaam and La Mexicana. That’s easily good enough for this, she gets Zahra on, should have no issue coming across and should go close.

(1) Aidensfield would be hard to beat at her best but I’m not sure where she’s at. She wasn’t bad by any stretch in the Creswick, finishing midfield in a bunched finish. I’ve got queries on that race, with roughies filling the placings, and 2L from 1st to 10th. 2nd up last prep she ran 2nd to Odeum which is obviously very good form.

Don’t think the rest are much good, (6) Sensationalisation not hopeless if she finds her best.

Tip: (2) Star Of Uma- $4.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Star Of Uma

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

All about (2) Dice Roll here, who should just win, especially after a key scratching. He’s unbeaten in Australia, was 7 weeks between runs last start but still drew clear late, running the fastest last 200m of the meeting. He’ll eat up 1600m and I think he’d have won by 3 lengths if they went another 100m last start. Will only come on from that run, maps for a very similar run again and with 55.5kg he just gets everything in his favour. $1.90 is more than fair now, although the early $2.50 would’ve been an absolute luxury.

(10) Kirwan’s Lane looks the clear danger coming down from Sydney, mainly because he brings different form to the race. The bm88 win over Ellsberg two back was good, and the Opacity form is solid.

(3) Odeon will run another honest race and is looking for 1600m but I can’t see him turning the tables on Dice Roll.

(6) Furrion was a horse to follow but 1600m isn’t far enough- watch for him hitting the line again and wait until he gets to 2000m.

 

Tip: (2) Dice Roll- $1.92 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Dice Roll

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

This series has been all about the different form, and I think it lies with (5) Don Arcangelo down from NSW. He started $8.50 and failed behind the very progressive import Wicklow and dropped in grade at Newcastle to a class 1, settling a bit closer and bolting in. Gets Olly on, gets to 2500m which will definitely suit coming off the 2350m win, and these are such an average lot that I want to be with him.

(4) Unique Artist has won her last two easily, starting $26 last start. That’s my query with the lead up race- it seems whoever hasn’t run in one of the leadups wins at a big price and then just joins the system and battles away.

(3) Token Spirit is racing well and Kah sticks from a nice barrier.

Tip: (5) Don Arcangelo- $6.50/2.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Don Arcangelo, 1.5 units PLC Don Arcangelo

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

(13) Lowanna Magic is a big price. He was okay first up, not suited at 1000m, but I really liked his run at Swan Hill up to 1200m, charging home to just miss in some good late splits. Not in well at the weights here up in grade, but I think he’s quite progressive and will suit Flemington.

From the main lead up, I want to be with (4) Banquo. He’s never won first up and I think fitness just gave out late last start, looming up and peaking on his run. He meets The Astrologist 2kg better at the weights, and 2nd up last prep he split Zoutori and Tofane at this T/D in the Bobbie Lewis. That’s very good form, he draws wide, gets onto firmer ground and keeps Lane. Good bet at $6.00.

(5) The Astrologist did win well last start, looking challenged everywhere but kicking well and just holding them off. Think he’s even better suited at 1200m and will run well again.

(1) Isaurian is an interesting one. His first up record is elite, with 5 wins from 6 starts, my query is he hasn’t actually raced much. He had basically three preps without ever making it to the track, just trialling and spelling. His first up record took its only hit last start, which was in December, running 3rd to Roheryn which is solid form. Recent trial was quiet, not amazing, and I think he might be a touch more effective at 1100m.

Tip: (4) Banquo- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (13) Lowanna Magic- $53.00 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Banquo, 0.25 units E/W Lowanna Magic

Odds Last Updated: July 3, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

(5) Parmie finally gets onto a firmer track, ideally, we’re still on a soft 5 given how well Flemington handles rain. She was very good first up and completely forgive last start on a heavy, biased track. Her 3rd up record is very solid, having run a narrow 2nd to Fabric at 1400m 3rd up last prep.

(4) Chassis won that Sandown race at a big price and then dropped back to 1100m last week which didn’t suit. Back up to 1400m on the quick backup, she’ll run well again.

(13) Lindhout is wearing very thin. She does so much wrong and laying in probably cost her the win last start. Meets Don’ttelltheboss much better at the weights but at $3 for a horse that hasn’t won since her debut, that will get back in the run and keeps costing herself wins isn’t a good bet.

(10) Galgani stuck on very well after racing wide here last start on speed. I’d much rather be with her than Lindhout out of that race, although she’ll need a new jockey with Willo coming out. Melham doesn’t have a ride, nor does Olly, either of them would be ideal!

Tip: (5) Parmie- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (10) Galgani- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Parmie, 0.5 units WIN Galgani