Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, February 10th

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

(3) Captain Spud resumes off a solid trial showing behind Anders. His form last prep was good enough for this- he wasn’t far off Embolism on debut.

 

(4) D’jumbuck is racing very well but can’t crack a win. Kah sticks and he should get every chance again.

 

(5) Happy Winner was good on debut then started $9 against Captain Spud but failed. He’s jumped out well.

 

(1) Galaxy Turf was good late in a handy maiden behind All Stardom at Caulfield. He’s winless from 10 starts but his last run puts him in the race.

 

Tip: (3) Captain Spud- $2.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

(3) Ellis Park resumed first up over 1300m and was run down, finishing 4^th to Galactus and Irish Butterfly. I think he’s come back better than last prep and should be fitter here. Kah sticks and he should be able to control the race from barrier 6.

 

(9) Sandsation wasn’t give much hope last start, snicked back and unable to make up the ground behind an all the way winner. He started $1.90 there in an easier race and drops 6.5kg here after the claim. I’d expect better tactics today.

 

(1) Lofty Star beat D’jumbuck first up in a lovely resumption, with a big gap back to 3^rd. This is much harder, but he maps to lead from barrier 2.

 

(8) Linas Magic won well at Mornington first up after showing some solid maiden form though the winter. Her 1.2L 4^th to Dirty Thoughts with a $5 SP reads well for this.

 

Tip: (3) Ellis Park- $6.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ellis Park

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(3) Irish Butterfly is clearly the horse to beat here and looks perfectly set up to break through. He ran the fastest last 600/400/200m of the race behind Galactus last start over 1300m which followed up a strong return in bm70 grade. The 1500m looks perfect now and he should be able to settle closer from barrier 2. This is a pretty weak race, and he looks exceptionally hard to beat.

 

(8) Kanzai at least has upside and was a strong winner over the trip at Geelong last start. The horse she beat was okay but still beaten in a Kyneton maiden on Tuesday. Barrier one doesn’t look ideal and she may be looking for further now too.

 

Really not much else in the race- perhaps (2) Rossman next best who can roll forward, but the more I look at the race I think only bad luck beats Irish Butterfly.

 

Tip: (3) Irish Butterfly- $2.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Irish Butterfly

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The main lead up was a Lakeside 1600m race won by Prism, with (9) Magnossiva in 2^nd. He had every chance sitting behind the leader and winner there.

 

(5) Holster was my top pick but has been scratched this morning. Staying out now.

 

(1) Not Mine is the class dropper, having raced over 2000m at Flemington his last two. The run three back behind Serengeti and Astraeus over 1600m at Pakenham goes very close to winning this.

 

(7) Comanche Brave was solid in the Magnossiva/Holster race when only first up. He’s lightly raced and can improve significantly off that.

 

Tip: (1) Not Mine- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

(4) Tuvalu couldn’t have been more impressive on debut at Warrnambool, going straight to the front from a wide gate and absolutely bolting in by 7L. It was only a maiden field, but the 2^nd horse Tycoon Bucks has been racing well and did break his maiden easily by 3.5L at Ballarat on Sunday. The $1.90 is probably a fair price- even away from his home track he could just be way too good again. I’d be leaving anything below $1.75.

 

(8) Awkward managed to win her maiden last start at Geelong nicely. Her form prior was solid although I don’t think she’s any star.

 

(3) The Big Easy has put in two good runs this prep, the first when not far off Dickin Medal and the second behind Yulong Command at The Valley. He got back there and was given a good, ground saving ride. I think the 1400m will suit and he’s in the game.

 

(1) Cumberbatch comes here first up and took on some decent 3yo races last prep. Kah sticks with him after trialling him at Geelong which is a good lead.

 

Tuvalu clearly on top but it all depends on the price- he’s $1.80 with some corporates now which I think is fair. I wouldn’t be taking under $1.75.

 

Tip: (4) Tuvalu- $1.75 at Bet365

Value: (1) Cumberbatch- $23.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Tuvalu, 0.25 units E/W Cumberbatch

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Open race. (3) Intellective run two to start the prep but was beaten last start by Kansino, who she meets here again. The margin was 0.8L and she gets a 3kg weight swing in her favour this time.

 

(6) Kansino did start shorter than Intellective both times they’ve met this prep, so there’s something to be said for that. She’s kept improving with every run this prep and will be attacking the line late.

 

(7) Bella Tiara brings the different form. She’s been racing Saturday 3yo fillies, and whilst they’re no stars, I think she’s up to these. She was impressive at Caulfield over 1400m two back before starting $3 and running the best splits of the race behind Milton Park here over 1400. Milton Park has won 2/2 this prep and looks to have come back well, so I think the form could stack up here. She’s never seen the 1600m, but I think she could be looking for it now.

 

(1) Arctic Shock seems to alternate between failures and good runs. Her run two back behind Indispensable is good enough for this but she’s very hit and miss.

 

Tip: (7) Bella Tiara- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Bella Tiara

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Good little race- there certainly looks a fast tempo on paper. Of the on speed horses, the only one I’d be interested in is (7) Yulong Island, because he showed last start that he can handle a brutal tempo. It was only a bm58, but he led all the way and did it fairly easily despite setting a strong tempo. For a horse with his very short SP profile he’s not the worst.

 

(6) Criminal is the other interesting horse. He’s jumped out very well for this first up run. He bolted in with a Sale maiden last prep coming from last, and also had a bm64 win over Excelman which is strong form. He’s a horse that enjoys fast race shapes and should get that here. Kah takes the ride first up which is a great pointer and I’ll be having something on.

 

(2) Confidant led the field at a slow tempo at Caulfield last start, finishing 3.3L off Regardsmaree. That’s obviously very good form, but I think he could’ve been flattered given the slow tempo, which he won’t find here.

 

(9) Irish Rockstar won impressively on debut and will be one of the on speed runners.

 

Backing Criminal and making Yulong Island a smaller result.

 

Tip: (6) Criminal- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (7) Yulong Island- $7.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Criminal, 0.5 units WIN Yulong Island

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Very tough finish. Happy enough to be against (13) Moeen who got every favour last start at her home track. Away from Pakenham up in grade I thought she was short enough, although is racing well.

 

(2) Write Your Name is racing well but doesn’t win out of turn. His last two runs, behind Regardsmaree and Never Again are both good enough for this. He maps for a good run just off the speed and this looks his best chance to win one this prep.

 

(5) Kent Street is another that doesn’t win out of turn but is coming out of bm84 grade behind Mr Money Bags, where he finished a close 2^nd. He gets D Lane on which is significant.

 

(10) Hezafox will get out over further but did have some handy 3yo form and should be hitting the line.

 

Tip: (2) Write Your Name- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Write Your Name