Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, February 3rd

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

I thought (9) Tatsuro could improve here at odds. He had two starts in the late Spring, both over 1000m and whilst he was well beaten, the runs weren’t bad. He profiled as a horse that would be better over further, but the 1300m first up was a completely different test, and he didn’t have the kindest of runs, sitting 3 wide no cover and making an early move. He was beaten 6.1L by Artorius, who looks very handy, but was only 1.5L off the 2^nd horse. With that run under his belt, he should be fitter and a second crack at the 1300m looks ideal.

 

D Lane jumps off Tatsuro to ride the O’Brien debutant (4) Grinzinger Knight which is a fairly strong push. He’s jumped out well and looks a key hope.

 

(7) Lightsaber was good on debut and looks suited up to 1300m for Nolen & Moody.

 

(6) Italian Poet has jumped out fairly well but gets Kah on for Ellerton & Zahra which is a red hot combination.

 

Tip: (9) Tatsuro $13.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units E/W Tatsuro

 

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

(6) Miss Five Hundred ticks a lot of boxes here. She was very unlucky at Werribee two back when starting $5.50, and should’ve finished much closer, before atoning at Cranbourne over the 3000m, settling closer and bolting in by 4.75L.

 

The horse she beat was (5) Field Of Lights who had every chance but was comprehensively beaten by the favourite. Field Of Lights then went to The Valley and ran 2^nd, beating quite a few of these horses when well respected at $6.

 

(3) Beachgoer won The Valley race by 2L over Field Of Light but did start $15.00 there and wasn’t going very well prior. He’s got to be respected off the last start win, but $4.50 seems short given his SP last start and prior form.

 

(1) Budd Fox should be fitter and can bridge back some of the 3.8L margin to Beachgoer. He’s 1/1 at the T/D and gets in form apprentice Will Price on.

 

Tip: (6) Miss Five Hundred $3.40 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Miss Five Hundred

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Handy little race. (4) Maui returned very well in a class 1 at Pakenham, rattling off the night’s fastest 400m and 200m in a slowly run race. Stays at the 1600m which looks ideal 2^nd up, and Kah replaces Ben Allen. There looks to be genuine tempo which should suit.

 

(1) Narvaez will be setting that tempo, dropping back from 2000m. He didn’t see out the trip in a fast run race last start but the win on the Lakeside course over a mile was good two back.

 

(7) Safeeya probably should’ve won at The Valley last start when getting boxed in from barrier two, unable to build momentum behind the leader and winner. This is probably a slightly harder race, but she should be able to sit outside Narvaez and get a chance to atone.

 

(2) Setanta was a dominant maiden winner two back and ran well again last start. The step up to 1600m should be ideal for the Fastnet Rock colt.

 

Maui on top, although the early price has been snapped up which has taken some of the value.

 

Tip: (4) Maui $4.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Maui

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Another good race but incredibly open. (6) Aquagirl probably wasn’t suited by the straight first up (despite her only career win coming there). Some of her form last prep reads well behind Hydro Star and Bella Nipotina.

 

(5) Supreme Idea also has form around Bella Nipotina, having finished 5^th to that filly in the Quezette 2^nd up last prep. She’s jumped out well for the first up run.

 

(1) The Mobot was well backed last start and was a touch disappointing in a 955m race, finishing 4L off a long priced winner. The run prior over 1100m behind Hidden Legend was excellent, sharing the lead on the inside where the winners swooped out wide.

 

(2) Heka Express sat on speed in the same 1100m race at Caulfield and ran well. She was unlucky but wouldn’t have beaten Elderflower regardless last start, which is solid form for this.

 

The Mobot can bounce back with race fitness on her side against some of the younger fillies resuming. She won her only other 4^th up start over 1000m, and the run two back makes her hard to beat in this.

 

Tip: (1) The Mobot $10.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN The Mobot

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The market was spot on with (7) Safe Passage first up at Pakenham. She was absolutely smashed in betting to start $2.05, and was never really in doubt, effectively leading all the way. She should be able to sit in the first few in running again and whilst she didn’t beat a whole lot first up, the market support was telling.

 

(10) Derive looks the danger. She only had the one run last prep and didn’t do a whole lot when beaten 3.8L by Hindaam, but has jumped out better leading into this prep, and strikes a weaker race. Three consecutive 2nds in good company the prep before, including a 3L defeat to Aysar, read very well and she’s clearly up to bm64 grade despite being a maiden. I wish she’d drawn better but want to keep her onside.

 

(3) A Pinch Of Luck ties in well with Derive, although both of her best runs have been on synthetic which is some worry. She bolted in on debut and hasn’t had a fresh run since, so could definitely show up.

 

(2) Don’ttelltheboss drops back to bm64 grade where she won impressively first up. She’ll be running on from a wide gate.

 

(11) Just Stellar is flying having won her last two in weaker grade, the latest by 3.8L at $1.65. Any on pace pattern would suit her as she looks the leader, but this is much much harder.

 

Quite confident the winner comes from Safe Passage and Derive and at the odds I’m happy to take around $2.20 each of two.

 

Tip: (7) Safe Passage $4.00 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (10) Derive $5.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Safe Passage, 1.5 units WIN Derive

 

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Deep little race. 1300m looks perfect for (16) Future Force who just couldn’t sprint with the winner first up at Geelong. 2^nd up last prep she won her maiden by 3.8L as an odds on favourite and wasn’t far off a handy 3yo in Mozzie Monster at Bendigo after that. The map here looks ideal with Lane sticking from barrier 5.

 

(1) Hydro Star is the interesting one. He rocketed to the top of 3yo feature markets with a dominant debut win here over 1000m, before failing badly at his 2^nd start. He drifted out very heavily first up down the straight and ran on fairly well for 3^rd in a questionable form race. He’s always profiled like more ground would suit, and a big open track, drawn out around a bend looks his preferred set up.

 

(2) Real Gun is flying and can settle wherever he’s comfortable. He easily accounted for the now scratched Jonny Angel two back.

 

(5) Legend Of Zorro next best.

 

Tip: (16) Future Force $6.00 Bet365

Value: (1) Hydro Star $7.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Future Force, 1 unit WIN Hydro Star

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (5) Flandersrain here 2^nd up. She drops in grade for this after running well for 3^rd in a bm70 at Caulfield first up. She’s much better suited at 1600m, and she has stakes form littered throughout her last prep, including a 1.5L 3^rd to Paradee at this trip. I like the map from barrier 7 which gives Will Price options, and the 2kg claim means she only carries 1kg more dropping down to a bm64.

 

The danger and saver looks to be (3) Blue Ocean at double figures. He got a long way back at Pakenham first up but ran on fairly well for a horse needing further and with a lack of fitness. 2^nd up last prep he ran 3^rd to Cordilla which is strong form, before putting up a big win from near last at Werribee and running a narrow 2^nd to Game Keeper at Flemington. He’ll be better 3^rd up at 2000m but has upside and at $10 I’m happy to keep him onside.

 

(10) Magnossiva comes off consecutive bm64 placings over the mile but does look to have found his mark and is still on just the 2 wins from 26 starts.

 

Tip: (5) Flandersrain $3.50 Bet365

Danger: (3) Blue Ocean $10.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Flandersrain, 0.5 units WIN Blue Ocean

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

(7) Galactus is flying having won his last two with less than ideal runs. This isn’t much harder despite a step up in grade.

 

(13) Angaston gets J Kah on after running 2^nd at Murray Bridge last start. That’s not easy to line up but respecting the jockey booking.

 

(12) Judestar gets down to 54.5kg after the claim and comes here in great form. He steps out of a class 1 to a bm70 but meets a bunch of horses out of form.

 

(11) Good And Proper just got over the top of Setanta last start, and we’ll get a guide to that form earlier on. Lane sticks with Galactus for the same stable but that would just be regular association rather than any jockey bookings.

 

Tip: (12) Judestar $7.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet