Randwick-Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, February 3rd

Odds Last Updated: February 16, 2021, 6:17pm (AEDT)

This is a cracking race to start the afternoon, but not one I have a lot of confidence in. There are at least 5 horses I think that can win this, all well in the market.

(3) King of Sparta really impressed me in both of his trials to date. The close relation to Ljungberg closed off well in his first trial behind Home Affairs before heading taking on the older horses in his second trial, where he was a fair way behind the leader who took off. When asked for something late, he accelerated nicely over the 1030m and that gives me confidence in not only his fitness coming in, but his chances of closing off from the wide barrier.

(2) Hilal is another who has closed off well in two trials. He looks like he has a nice action and may want a touch further. He has a poor draw, but I expect him to close off well.

(13) Syracuse showed some good speed in her only trial this preparation which was a good hit out. They may go forward with her from barrier 8 but I fear she may be a run short with only one 700m trial under her belt.

(9) Camplin is another who has trialled up nicely and can make a real shake of this race if given the luck.

(11) Glittery is one I want to watch at big odds being a close relation Coruscate and Bivouac, though she has trialled up average.

Tip: (3) King of Sparta - $7.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Another race which looks tough on paper.

(7) The Denzel closed off well in his debut back in June after being slow to begin by 2 lengths. I thought it finished the race off well even though it was never a hope late in the race. He is going to be super fit after two 1000m trials where he was really pushed out. I expect them to be prominent if the gelding jumps with the field and be hard to beat.

(1) Wheelhouse will have to carry some weight here but finishing second in the Fernhill Mile, he deserves it. Since changing stables to Chris Waller the colt has had three trials where I thought he has gradually improved through each one. The addition of blinkers may make a huge difference on race day, but he will be giving some of these a start.

(4) Vital Verse looks best of the rest.

Tip: (7) The Denzel - $4.20

Betting Strategy: No Bet

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Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Sticking with race experience here in (2) Magic Ruler who was pretty consistent leading up to the end of her first preparation, which ended poorly as he finished a long last at Canterbury. He was found to have cardiac arrhythmia so it was a complete forgive run in my opinion. The form prior to that run was good, finishing 1.3 lengths off Yardstick whilst beating home Rule of Law and Cat D’Oro amongst others. He has had two nice trials in the lead-up to this race and should be pretty forward for his first-up attempt. He is much better value here than his counterparts and is a solid each-way bet.

(7) Skedaddle looks to have the goods on the back of her trials. She has had two 1000m trials in the lead-up to this and was really pushed out in the latest trial which suggests she will be up to the mark for her first-up run. She may just justify her short quote, but I am willing to let this one go to the keeper so I can see her in race day conditions.

(6) Lady of Luxury looks the main danger of both horses above after a solid run behind Newsreader at the Gold Coast. She is the only horse with a run under her belt this preparation though I think she needs further.

Tip: (2) Magic Ruler - $6.50 (E/W)

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Magic Ruler B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

I really like (7) Elegant Grace with the step up in distance here. She unexpectedly went to the lead last start at Wyong, which in hindsight was a good move as it was the only chance she had of winning. She managed to finish second behind the well backed favourite Never Never River, going down by 1.5 lengths whilst beating the rest of the field by 0.8 of a length and more. I think they would be silly to not head forward again here with the wide draw, lack of speed in the race and of course the wet track. Although she is up in grade, it is only to fillies and mares’ grade which will suit her well and if Avdulla can secure a forward position, I think her fitness gets her over the line.

(6) Red Hot Chillypins can run a race at decent odds, especially with the rain around. Her first-up run was good, and she should come on nicely from it. Although this distance is probably short of her best, the wet track in this sort of grade brings her in nicely and she will be hitting the line well. Watch for her late.

(8) Bizou hit the line nicely behind rival (7) Elegant Grace last start and she may sit a little closer from a nice draw. Her wet track form is a bit mixed and she will have to chase here so tread carefully.

Tip: (7) Elegant Grace $6.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Elegant Grace B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

(7) He’s A Given is going to love the conditions at hand and has performed well in this grade previously. He saluted well in his last start at Kembla Grange over the 2000m, coming from just off the pace to run down the leader. Apart from the leader, he managed to put the rest of the field away easily by 4.5 lengths which will give him plenty of confidence for this race. Coming back to 1800m is fine and Keegan Latham remains aboard which is positive also. From the nice draw, hopefully they can pinch a nice position in the run before using that love of wet tracks in the straight.

(2) Guise is up to a more preferred distance now as she looks to keep building up her fitness. She was brave first-up over the 1400m before not really playing a big part in the step up to the mile in Saturday grade. Back to mid-week grade and up in distance suits whilst the wet track will not be a worry for her either. I do think she is short of her pet distance but that doesn’t mean she can’t run a race here.

(1) Chocolatier becomes a big factor and chance if they back him up here.

Tip: (7) He’s A Given $7.00 Bluebet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

I am sticking with (9) Geist here despite the freshen up. She was forced to be a late scratching on January 23 after kicking out in the tie-up stalls, causing her to be lame in the near-hind leg. Her last start at Wyong, she was in an impossible position but a master ride by Christian Reith brought her from near last on the bend to first in the blink of an eye for a victory by almost a length. Despite drawing well here, I think she does get back due to the speed around her, but I think that will be fine as she will get the last crack at them. The track won’t worry her and if Rachel King can give her clear air in the straight, she may just run them down easily.

(7) Invincible Kiss copped all sorts of bother last start at Canterbury where she ended up finishing 1.3 lengths back in sixth. She was held up early in the straight and then crowded at the 200m which caused her to be checked. I think she is a good chance here and with Nash aboard, anything is possible.

(3) Calipari has mixed form on the wet track, but he is likely to improve nicely and will carry a small amount of weight here. He may just sneak in a win.

Tip: (9) Geist $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Geist B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Playing two in the last and hopefully we get the cash.

(9) Flexible was one that I jumped off last start and boy wasn’t I wrong. With a well-timed ride by Rachel King, she streaked away to a 1.8 length win on the heavy going at Warwick Farm. Before that she went down narrowly to Fifteen Aria over 1300m, so the step up here to 1400m shouldn’t worry her. She is fighting fit now and her wet track form is solid, so she will need a combination of both as she steps up from maiden grade to a benchmark 72. She is drawn poorly, hence why we will have a back-up bet but she will look the one to beat if she gets a nice run.

(3) Snitzify is another coming off a nice win. He was very tough on-pace at Wyong last start holding off the old boy Isorich in a photo. The start before he wasn’t that bad when going down by 0.6 of a length in fourth behind Blondeau on a heavy Warwick Farm. This is a lot easier than what he faced at Warwick Farm two back and is drawn nicely to get into a forward position. Tommy Berry will take the ride which is a positive and with decent wet track form, he is a good back-up each-way bet.

(6) Mars probably looks the best of the rest.

Tip: (9) Flexible - $2.60 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (3) Snitzify - $9.00 (E/W) at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Flexible B3TSP, 1 unit EACH WAY Snitzify B3TSP