Racing Tips

Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, February 3rd

Wednesday nights are for Happy Valley racing and our expert Tim Geers has run his eye over tonight’s nine-race card.

by
Tim Geers
2 February 2021

Wednesday nights are for Happy Valley racing in Hong Kong, and our expert Tim Geers has run his eye over tonight’s nine-race card!

He’s keen to get involved early, with selections in Race 1 and Race 2, before rounding out his best bets in Race 7.

Check out his detailed analysis and betting tips for those races below!

Race 1

Shek Kip Mei Hcp (C4) (1200m)
9:45pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Shek Kip Mei Hcp (C4) (1200m) 9:45pm (AEDT)
1. Cheerful Leader (11) J: V Borges (60.5kg) T: P Yiu	18	19	20	20	19.2
2. Cantstopthefeeling (7) J: N Callan (58.5kg) T: K L Man	20	18	20	20	19
3. A Smile Like Yours (10) J: J Moreira (56.5kg) T: J J Size	6.5	6.5	7.5	7.5	6.6
4. E Honey (3) J: A K Chan (56.5kg) T: C Fownes	61	67	51	51	61
5. Shining On (9) J: C Y Ho (56.5kg) T: K W Lui	4.4	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.65
6. Goko (4) J: A Hamelin (56kg) T: C H Yip	15	15	16	16	15.2
7. Happy Time (1) J: B Shinn (56kg) T: W Y So	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.85
8. Happy Profit (2) J: Z Purton (56kg) T: C S Shum	5	5.5	6	6	5.5
9. Mister Arm (5) J: K Teetan (56kg) T: Y S Tsui	27	21	26	26	22
10. Multimore (8) J: M Chadwick (55kg) T: A S Cruz	51	41	41	41	41
11. Smart Hunter (6) J: Jerry Chau (54.5kg) T: D Whyte	81	71	61	61	71
12. Mission Smart (12) J: M F Poon (53kg) T: F C Lor	10	11	9.5	9.5	10.2

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

The favourite gets his chance from barrier 1 here but he’s short enough at the current quote so I’m playing a few others in the race.

(8) Happy Profit hasn’t had much go right in his first two career starts. On debut he drew barrier 11 and sat three-wide the trip, and then last start he pulled up with substantial mucus in his trachea after dropping out to run second last. He started $5.80 that night so was obviously expected to be competitive, and notably, Zac Purton sticks with him tonight. He draws well in barrier 2 and can bounce back.

(11) Smart Hunter ran close enough to last in all three starts in his first preparation, but his trials this time in haven’t been that bad. Sometimes these horses need some time to acclimatise before showing their best, and although his recent trials have only been at Conghua, he might be able to improve tonight at enormous odds.

(12) Mission Smart is another at double figure odds that I expect to run well. He ran 2^nd last time we saw him, which was back in August, but he pulled up with a few issues out of that run. Three trials leading into his resumption tonight and down on the minimum he might be able to show something. Barrier 12 is the negative.

(1) Cheerful Leader gets a class drop and the blinkers go back on. 1200m might not be his best distance but no surprise to see a sharp turnaround in form.

(5) Shining On continues to race well and will be right in the finish.

Tip: (8) Happy Profit $5.50 Ladbrokes

Value: (11) Smart Hunter $81 Bet365 & (12) Mission Smart $12 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Happy Profit, 0.25 units E/W Smart Hunter, 0.25 units WIN Mission Smart

Race 2

Shek Kip Mei Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Shek Kip Mei Hcp (C4) (1200m) 10:15pm (AEDT)
1. Bright Kid (9) J: C Wong (60.5kg) T: W Y So	6.5	6.5	7	7	6.6
2. Classic Posh (5) J: Z Purton (60kg) T: D J Hall	2.7	2.9	3	3	2.9
3. Aerosonic (3) J: J Moreira (57kg) T: J J Size	11	12	11	11	11.8
4. Happy Gathering (12) J: A Hamelin (57kg) T: K L Man	51	41	41	41	41
5. Lucky Maryknoll (7) J: B Shinn (57kg) T: D A Hayes	13	13	15	15	13
6. Mudita (10) J: N Callan (57kg) T: P D O'sullivan	101	101	151	151	101
7. Sea Elite (6) J: Jerry Chau (56kg) T: D Whyte	31	26	21	21	26
8. Top Military (11) J: K Teetan (56kg) T: T P Yung	20	18	19	19	18.8
9. Dragon In Field (1) J: T Piccone (54kg) T: C W Chang	41	41	31	31	40
10. Scenic Sweetie (2) J: H N Wong (54kg) T: Y S Tsui	31	26	41	41	30
11. Run The Table (8) J: C Y Ho (53kg) T: K W Lui	8	8	7.5	7.5	8
12. Fortune Hero (4) J: A Badel (52kg) T: Richard Gibson	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.4	3.45

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

This looks a very thin race and (2) Classic Posh won’t get a better chance to win than this. Zac Purton jumps back aboard to replace apprentice Jerry Chau, so although the horse carries more weight tonight, he gets the big jockey change. Drawn ideally in barrier 2, the only concern is that he’s failed in two prior starts at Happy Valley, but this is a golden opportunity for him to break through.

(12) Fortune Hero is the second favourite, coming off a class 5 win over track and distance last start. He carried 55.5kg in that race and now finds himself up to a class 4 with 52kg. Yes, he drops in weight, but I still find it hard to get him that short in the market given this is a much harder race.

Don’t be surprised to see sharp improvement from (3) Aerosonic with Moreira taking over from Chad Schofield for trainer John Size. When he goes on, it tends to mean they are ready.

(1) Bright Kid drops in class and finds a suitable race.

Tip: (2) Classic Posh $3.00 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Classic Posh

Race 3

Tai Wo Ping Hcp (C4) (2200m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Tai Wo Ping Hcp (C4) (2200m) 10:45pm (AEDT)
1. Peach Blossoms (1) J: K C Leung (60.5kg) T: D J Hall	21	20	19	19	20
2. Dynamic Eagle (7) J: A Badel (60kg) T: C S Shum	6.5	6.5	7	6.5	6.5
3. Crown Avenue (3) J: Z Purton (58.5kg) T: C H Yip	7	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.4
4. Victorious Seeker (8) J: C Schofield (58.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan	12	12	12	13	12
5. Magnetism (5) J: N Callan (57kg) T: D Ferraris	13	13	12	12	12.8
6. Bullish Glory (2) J: C Y Ho (56.5kg) T: C W Chang	20	18	21	21	19.2
7. Exaltation (6) J: J Moreira (56kg) T: A S Cruz	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.9
8. Great Times (9) J: Jerry Chau (55kg) T: K L Man	81	91	101	101	91
9. Good Days (11) J: V Borges (54.5kg) T: C S Shum	9	10	9.5	10	9.8
10. Pretty Bauhinia (10) J: K Teetan (54.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	13	13	12	12	12
11. Hay Run (4) J: H T Mo (53.5kg) T: L Ho	51	41	41	41	41
12. Sky Gem (12) J: M L Yeung (52kg) T: C Fownes	16	13	15	15	14.8

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Shek Kip Mei Hcp (C4) (1200m)
11:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Shek Kip Mei Hcp (C4) (1200m) 11:15pm (AEDT)
1. Telecom Puma (5) J: A K Chan (60.5kg) T: C Fownes	7.5	6	7	7	6.9
2. Hercules (4) J: J Moreira (59.5kg) T: C H Yip	6.5	6	5.5	5.5	6
3. Casa Kingdom (9) J: B Shinn (57kg) T: D A Hayes	51	41	51	51	41
4. Forever City (11) J: K C Leung (57kg) T: P D O'sullivan	81	81	101	101	81
5. Fortune Carrier (7) J: Z Purton (57kg) T: C S Shum	4.4	4.2	4.4	4.4	4.35
6. Superb Daddy (1) J: N Callan (57kg) T: D Ferraris	10	11	14	14	12
7. Viva Popcorn (3) J: M Chadwick (57kg) T: A S Cruz	21	21	26	26	21.5
8. Gracylove (10) J: C Y Ho (56kg) T: D J Hall	14	14	15	14	14
9. Universal Go Go (8) J: M F Poon (56kg) T: K W Lui	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.4
10. Infinite Power (12) J: Jerry Chau (55.5kg) T: T P Yung	71	71	71	71	71
11. Viva Chef (2) J: A Badel (55.5kg) T: L Ho	6	6.5	4.8	5.5	5.8
12. Supreme Plus (6) J: K Teetan (54.5kg) T: F C Lor	14	15	15	15	14.8

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Stonecutters Island Hcp (C4) (1650m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Stonecutters Island Hcp (C4) (1650m) 11:45pm (AEDT)
1. Wind Glider (4) J: V Borges (60.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan	35	34	26	26	34
2. Brave King (1) J: A K Chan (60kg) T: A S Cruz	6	4.6	6	6	5.8
3. Chater Pins (6) J: N Callan (60kg) T: D A Hayes	8	8.5	7	8	8.2
4. Maldives (8) J: Z Purton (59kg) T: D J Hall	3.7	3.9	4	4	3.8
5. Superbella (10) J: M F Poon (57.5kg) T: F C Lor	126	101	101	126	121
6. Fortune Happiness (3) J: C Y Ho (57kg) T: K W Lui	34	31	31	31	31
7. Lucky Diamond (12) J: A Badel (56kg) T: K H Ting	126	126	101	126	121
8. King Dragon (5) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: K L Man	3.8	3.7	4	4	3.9
9. Kiram (2) J: T Piccone (54kg) T: D Ferraris	17	19	18	18	18.2
10. Thunder Stomp (9) J: K Teetan (53.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	5.5	7	5.5	5.5	5.7
11. Speedy Optimist (11) J: M Chadwick (52kg) T: C H Yip	19	18	17	17	18.2
12. Running Guy (7) J: Alex Lai (51.5kg) T: C W Chang	251	201	201	201	201

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Cheung Sha Wan Hcp (C2) (1000m)
12:15am (AEDT)

Race 6 Cheung Sha Wan Hcp (C2) (1000m) 12:15am (AEDT)
1. Explosive Witness (3) J: A Badel (60.5kg) T: C Fownes	4.4	4.4	4	4	4.5
2. Winner Supreme (4) J: H T Mo (58kg) T: Y S Tsui	41	41	41	41	41
3. Shining Ace (5) J: J Moreira (57.5kg) T: J J Size	11	8.5	10	10	9.9
4. Hong Kong Bet (2) J: N Callan (56kg) T: K H Ting	6.5	6	7	7	6.1
5. Grateful Heart (8) J: Z Purton (55.5kg) T: C S Shum	2.5	2.4	2.45	2.45	2.45
6. Massive Pocket (1) J: C Y Ho (54kg) T: K W Lui	7.5	6.5	7.5	7.5	7.3
7. Multimillion (7) J: K Teetan (53kg) T: A S Cruz	8.5	10	10	10	10
8. California Concord (6) J: M Chadwick (52kg) T: A S Cruz	26	26	21	21	25
9. Larson (9) J: M F Poon (52kg) T: F C Lor	11	10	10	10	10.8
10. Mega Heart (10) J: M L Yeung (52kg) T: C W Chang	61	41	51	51	51

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Sham Shui Po Hcp (C3) (1650m)
12:45am (AEDT)

Race 7 Sham Shui Po Hcp (C3) (1650m) 12:45am (AEDT)
1. Namjong Plus (10) J: C Y Ho (60.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	11	13	14	14	12.8
2. Kyrus Unicorn (11) J: Z Purton (59kg) T: C W Chang	8	9	9.5	9.5	8.8
3. Cheers Baby (2) J: Alex Lai (57.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan	71	71	67	67	71
4. Gift Of Lifeline (6) J: K Teetan (57kg) T: A T Millard	5.5	5	6.5	6.5	5.4
5. Breeders' Ding (4) J: N Callan (56.5kg) T: C Fownes	41	34	41	41	38
6. Smiling City (8) J: Jerry Chau (56kg) T: D Whyte	4.2	4.2	3.8	3.8	4.15
7. Incanto Prepared (3) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: J J Size	2.7	2.7	2.45	2.45	2.65
8. Smoothies (1) J: C Schofield (55kg) T: C S Shum	17	18	19	19	17.8
9. Total Power (9) J: M F Poon (54kg) T: D J Hall	41	34	34	34	34
10. Xiang Bai Qi (7) J: T Piccone (53.5kg) T: D Ferraris	21	19	19	19	19
11. Sunny Lad (5) J: M Chadwick (53kg) T: A S Cruz	26	21	26	26	22.5
12. Exceptional Nice (12) J: A Badel (51.5kg) T: W Y So	46	41	51	51

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Pretty happy to take on (4) Gift Of Lifeline with Purton jumping off, and the race sets up really nicely for the other two at the head of the market.

(7) Incanto Prepared is racing well and the key to tonight is Moreira jumping back aboard. He put together consecutive victories in Class 4 before rising to Class 3 last start with Alexis Badel in the saddle. He was OK when finishing 4^th in the same race that Smiling City won. But Moreira is off Smiling City tonight and back aboard Incanto Prepared, with a luxury draw in barrier 3. Looks the horse to beat.

(6) Smiling City ran 2^nd to Gift Of Lifeline two starts ago and then won with Moreira on board last start. He carries the same weight tonight with apprentice Jerry Chau taking the claim and he should be very competitive once again.

Happy to back Incanto Prepared and save on Smiling City.

Tip: (7) Incanto Prepared $2.75 Bet365

Saver: (6) Smiling City $4.60 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Incanto Prepared, 0.5 units WIN Smiling City

Race 8

Lai Chi Kok Hcp (C3) (1200m)
1:15am (AEDT)

Race 8 Lai Chi Kok Hcp (C3) (1200m) 1:15am (AEDT)
1. Inner Flame (4) J: Jerry Chau (60.5kg) T: D Whyte	9	10	10	10
2. Joyful Union (5) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: T P Yung	6	6	6	6
3. Mig Energy (3) J: M Chadwick (60kg) T: A S Cruz	9	8	9	9
4. Alcari (11) J: K C Leung (56.5kg) T: P Yiu	8	9.5	9.5	9.5
5. Metro Warrior (10) J: N Callan (57.5kg) T: D A Hayes	13	13		12
6. Prince Of Bon Bon (2) J: B Shinn (56kg) T: D Ferraris	81	81	81	81
7. Winston's Lad (12) J: K Teetan (54.5kg) T: K W Lui	31	31	31	31
8. Aurora Pegasus (9) J: J Moreira (54kg) T: C Fownes	9	9	10	10
9. Hall Of Champ (7) J: Alex Lai (54kg) T: D J Hall	9	9	10	10
10. Harrier Jet (8) J: V Borges (54kg) T: P D O'sullivan	12	11	9	9
11. Triple Triple (1) J: M F Poon (52.5kg) T: F C Lor	3	3.1	2.8	2.8
12. Baltic Whisper (6) J: H T Mo (51.5kg) T: C S Shum	41	41	51	51

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Lai Chi Kok Hcp (C3) (1200m)
1:50am (AEDT)

Race 9 Lai Chi Kok Hcp (C3) (1200m) 1:50am (AEDT)
1. Scores Of Fun (4) J: A Badel (60.5kg) T: J J Size	5	5.5	4.4	4.4	5.1
2. Helena Baby (2) J: Jerry Chau (59.5kg) T: D Whyte	34	31	31	31	31
3. Igniting (5) J: Z Purton (57.5kg) T: K W Lui	2.25	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
4. Stoicism (9) J: B Shinn (56.5kg) T: D Ferraris	61	101	101	101	95
5. Happy Alumni (3) J: V Borges (56kg) T: D A Hayes	5.5	6	4.8	4.8	5.6
6. Capital Star (10) J: J Moreira (55.5kg) T: C Fownes	6.5	6.5	7.5	7.5	6.6
7. The Runner (6) J: M F Poon (54kg) T: F C Lor	11	11	12	12	11.2
8. Hardly Swears (12) J: M L Yeung (53.5kg) T: K H Ting	27	26	26	26	26.5
9. Shouson (11) J: A Hamelin (53.5kg) T: A T Millard	27	26	31	31	26.5
10. Little Bird (8) J: Alex Lai (52.5kg) T: K L Man	67	61	67	67	63
11. Aca Power (1) J: H T Mo (51.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	101	101	91	91	101
12. Nordic Warrior (7) J: M Chadwick (51.5kg) T: Richard Gibson	18	16	16	16	16.4

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.