Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 25th

Odds Last Updated: November 26, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tough little maiden to kick us off. (10) Turbofan started $3.60 on debut at Hamilton and wasn’t given the best ride by Jack Hill. He jumped okay, settled midfield, but was shuffled back mid race and ended up last on the fence. He finally got off heels and to the outside, but the damage was well and truly done. He did manage to run the fastest last 200m of the race behind Corner Pocket, who was a strong class 1 winner at The Valley on Friday night. Gets the all-important jockey switch of Hill to Oliver, who will just need some luck from barrier 1 to get the horse into clear air, and the extra 200m will help.

 

(9) Summaroca could be the danger and was sound at his Kyneton debut, racing on speed. He’ll give a sight out in front and it’ll be interesting to see if there’s any early pattern.

 

Tip: (10) Turbofan $5.5 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Turbofan

 

Odds Last Updated: November 26, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) Chief Altony is knocking on the door and I’m confident this is his day. His last two runs especially have been excellent- two back he ran on strongly for a narrow 3^rd (with 10L back to 4^th) behind New Choice, who won at The Valley. Last start he had to shift out to avoid a horse coming back through the field, came to the outside and just missed the leader/winner. He stays in a class 1, gets Olly replacing Rodd, and the form around him is stacking up. He likely gets back from barrier 11, but with an uninterrupted run I think he has most of the horses who map better covered for class.

 

(3) Hasseltoff is the danger, but he’ll also likely settle back from a wide barrier. He went under as an odds on favourite first up on a heavy 10, before atoning with an easy win over 1400m last start. He wasn’t far off some decent 3yo’s last prep and certainly has a case.

 

Tip: (2) Chief Altony $3 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Chief Altony

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

These 3yo bm64’s are always quality, with plenty of last start winners coming up against horses with solid metro form. (4) Better Kick was run down by Lindhout first up which looks solid form, before starting $1.55 and bolting in with a maiden last start. He steps up to 1400m, but I don’t think that’ll be an issue, and if he can find the front, he will be hard to run down.

(12) Aswaat was one of many with a hard luck story at Flemington last start, getting held up in a compact field and only really getting clear air for 200m. I’ve been hard against that race as a form line, but this filly obviously has talent. I’d expect them to go back from the wide draw and hope the pace is on.

 

(3) Torbreck probably brings the best form but has been well beaten his past two and might be looking for a spell now.

 

Tip: (4) Better Kick $4.25 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Better Kick

 

Odds Last Updated: November 26, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

In a tough looking race, I think there’s a good bet in the form of (7) Dee Keepa for the Lindsey Smith yard, who look to be striking some recent form (22% SR from last 50). This horse came to Australia last prep, ran two solid races before improving out of sight 3^rd up and bolting in by nearly 4L. Granted, it was on synthetic, but the field was solid, and she did it easily. She’s been building towards another peak performance and gets McNeil replacing the apprentice.

 

(5) Metronome brings solid form and has to be respected but is coming off three heavy track runs and seems short enough in an open race.

 

Big watch on (1) Lamu first up- She went very well first up last prep over 1300m before an unlucky 3^rd to Naivasha at Flemington. She’s the horse with upside that will probably progress to better races, but she draws wide with the 3kg claimer on and will have to loop the field.

 

Tip: (7) Dee Keepa $4.2 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Dee Keepa

 

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

This is a nightmare over 2400m at $5 the field. (10) Sleepless isn’t hopeless at double figures. He started $3.40 favourite last start at Cranbourne and did too much early work, fading to finish 6^th, beaten 3.5L. He was dominant leading all the way at Kilmore the start before, and if he gets an easy time in front, he’ll be there for a long way.

 

(3) Mighty Oasis won that Cranbourne race, but had the race run to suit, meets Sleepless 2kg worse and started $12. He’s half the price of Sleepless here which looks wrong based off their SP’s last start.

 

(15) Mr Joobs is lightly raced and coming off a dominant maiden victory over 2500m. This is obviously harder, but he can continue to improve.

 

(17) Eaton started $41 last start but beat a handy field at The Valley when leading all the way. Don’t think he’ll get as ideal conditions here and his form prior was just fair.

 

Tip: (10) Sleepless $12 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Sleepless

 

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Speaking of the L Smith stable starting to recapture some form, I think (7) Capital Zous is a big chance at $10 here. He’s only had three starts, but his most recent run at Ballarat was enormous. Seeing a good track for the first time, he was snicked to last from a wide gate and given a terrible ride. He tried to stick to the inside in the straight, eventually easing across 4 sets of heels and getting to the extreme outside with barely 150m to go. He really motored once clear and with a clear run and the way he was covering the ground, I think he should’ve been right in the finish. He draws much better in 4, McNeil replaces Brown, and he steps up to 1300m.

 

(3) Paddy Mac deserves to be favourite. He’s started odds on in all three Australian starts, winning two and running a narrow 2^nd before a spell over 1755m. His win first up last prep at Terang was absolutely dominant when leading all the way, and if he’s fit enough, he’ll be in the finish.

 

Happy to make Capital Zous a good result at the odds and save on Paddy Mac.

 

Tip: (7) Capital Zous $10 Palmerbet

Saver: (3) Paddy Mac $4.45 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit E/W Capital Zous, 0.5 units WIN Paddy Mac

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Another tough one. (6) Caffrey ran first up in the grey’s race at Flemington, leading the field on a tough day to do so but only going down by 1.35L to Berbidek and Star Missile. I think that’s solid form for this, and he’s probably got some fitness to come. Only lightly raced, he won a very similar race 2^nd up last prep. I don’t think they’ll lead here from barrier 4, but he should be able to land in the box seat and from there he’ll be hard to beat.

 

(1) Seberate is always around the mark but can’t crack it for a win. His run last start behind Black Sail was good, but he’s a hard horse to catch.

 

(16) Just Folk started $3.10 in the Black Sail race and was good himself. He’s yet to place from 3 attempts on a good track however and does draw wide with the 3kg claimer on board.

 

Tip: (6) Caffrey $4.55 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Caffrey

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(16) Tralee Rose has to be the horse to beat. She bolted in first up in fast time, which resulted in some very strong backing on Oaks Day at Flemington, where she started $4.20 and beat November Dreaming, who despite finishing 9^th is a handy mare. Night Witches has come out of the race and flew home from last to win at The Valley, so the form looks good. 1800m looks ideal, and she draws well in 4. Kersley takes over from McEvoy, which is a negative, but she’s progressive and looks well placed with 58kg.

 

(2) Scottish Dancer perhaps didn’t run out a strong 2000m last start. I like him back to 1800m here, but he’s going to get a long way back from the carpark.

 

(8) Carrie next best- she strung two wins together before starting $7 in the Pinker Pinker plate and failing, beaten 18L. She’s had 7 weeks off to get over that and I’d suggest the market will tell you, as it often does with Danny O’Brien horses, if she’s fit enough.

 

Tip: (16) Tralee Rose $3.25 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Tralee Rose