Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 31st

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 1:31pm (AEDT)

 

(11) Lease was first emergency last week and didn’t gain a run, but he will definitely be running here providing the trainer keeps him in. I really liked his first-up run behind Athelric and rival Otelo, where the pace was below par, and he come home well from the back of the field. He ended up back there due to the draw, but he is drawn much better her to sit in a closer spot. His breeding suggests the wet shouldn’t be an issue and he has a run under his belt which will count for plenty here. I am expecting a much better run this time out.

(6) Turgenev has trialled up well, though it does worry me that his two latest trials were over 800m and 740m, with the latest being on the synthetic. If you just look at his trials and not everything else around him, he should go well, but I can’t have him on top.

(1) Fabulous Choice is another who trialled up well last start, but it was over the 735m. He looks a nice type though, so he might run a solid race.

Tip: (11) Lease $14.00/$3.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

 

I have quite liked the trials by (5) Rubamos who is returning to the races as a gelding for the first time. He was gelded before his two trials where he was an impressive winner in the first trial before again travelling strongly in his second trial eight days later over the 1175m. I expect him to be very forward after two 1000m trials and the addition of the pre-race earmuffs and tongue tie should just top him off. I think he gets into a handy spot from the draw and is worth the gamble at the price.

(4) Raoul got held up early in the straight at Randwick-Kensington three weeks ago, before fighting hard to finish third behind Rainbow Connection. Before that, he ran a solid second to Kalashnikov at Gosford, which is good form for this race. I expect him to be thereabouts again.

(1) Captivare looks the best of the rest.

Tip: (5) Rubamos $6.00/$2.20

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Rubamos FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

 

(8) War Baron is ready for the 2200m trip now after three strong runs over the 1300m, 1500m and 1800m respectively. He was very strong to the line two back at Hawkesbury, saluting by just over half a length before heading to Randwick-Kensington for a mid-week meeting, where he narrowly went down late to Joigny. His closing sectionals were very good, beaten only by Flexible in the same race and Tycoon Hallie in the first. He is drawn well, gets in light and he will be peaking in fitness for this 2200m contest.

(3) Toscanini is ready to tackle the 2200m once again and is a deserved favourite. He was bold at Rosehill in Saturday grade last start, finishing third to Welsh Legend and Kiss The Bride. He is another who is drawn well and should be right there in the finish with even luck.

(7) Red Hot Chillypins is on the quick back-up and I expect her to run another good race.

Tip: (8) War Baron $6.00/$2.20

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

 

(6) Blesk was a good thing beat last start and I personally don’t think he has been given any favours here. He was held up at a key stage in the straight last start before narrowly going down by 0.06 of a length to Savoury at Randwick-Kensington. The query here, is how he will be ridden from the inside gate. His usual style is to drop-back, but the last thing Tom Marquand will want is to be stuck three back on the rails. He has been ridden more positively previously, but without a tactics change, it is hard to be confidently.

(7) Highmaster comes out of the same race as Blesk and he was also held up at a key stage. He didn’t make much ground on Blesk but made enough to finish a promising third. Considering he is a run behind the favourite, I thought his run was quite good and you should see considerable improvement here. Don’t be surprised if you see him storming home from a decent draw.

(8) Aoraki can run a good race first-up and he will be one to keep an eye on going forward.

Tip: (6) Blesk $3.00

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Blesk FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 4:01pm (AEDT)

 

I think this is a much better race for (10) Eleusa providing she races here instead of Newcastle. She ran okay first-up behind All Hallows Eve, who has since run well in town in a similar grade before heading to Hawkesbury last start, where she showed nice improvement to salute by just over half a length. That race rated really well considering they went out almost 8 lengths quicker than par and still only come home -1.2 lengths below par. She will eat up the mile and I think this is the logical step in her preparation.

(2) Ruby Tuesday has a host of gear changes with the near side bubble cheeker coming off, the lugging bit coming off and the earmuffs coming off with only the pre-race earmuffs going on. She broke poorly last start by around three lengths but still managed to finish well enough into fifth. I like the fact she steps back up to the mile and I think she is a nice each-way hope.

(9) Darling Diamond is coming back from the Kembla Classic, where she was 1.37 lengths off the eventual winner in Miravalle. This is a lot easier though and providing she doesn’t run at Newcastle, she will be a massive chance.

Tip: (10) Eleusa $4.25

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Eleusa FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 4:41pm (AEDT)

 

(7) Saigon is the one I want to be on here with the two runs under her belt which have been spaced out nicely. She was impressive returning from a break at Randwick in December, putting her opposition away nicely over the 1400m. She then had a small break before trialing fairly and running a bold second behind The Irishman, who has since placed at Group 2 level since. Not everything went to plan for her that day and she arguably should have won the race. The daughter of I Am Invincible gets conditions to suit here with a drying track whilst staying at 1400m and should be able to nab a nice spot in the second half of the field from the draw.

(8) Le Gai Soleil has trialled up well in preparation for her return and I expect her to be a handful first-up. Her statistics first-up are impressive, she handles any ground and with two 1000m trials under her belt, she should be up the mark fitness wise.

(9) Sagacious looks a terrific each-way chance.

Tip: (8) Le Gai Soleil $3.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

 

Very keen to see the return of (6) Salina Dreaming here, who has had two nice trials in preparation for this. First-up last preparation, she was too good for her opponents in Saturday grade, beating home subsequent Group 3 placegetter The Face, who was the favourite on the day. She was then well backed at Kensington next start on the heavy going but unfortunately, she didn’t handle the conditions and hurt herself in the process. She should be nice and forward off two trials and she should settle midfield from the draw, which won’t be so bad at this time of the day. She is over the odds at the current price.

(10) Rainbow Connection was impressive on debut, but this will be a lot tougher. He ran an impressive figure whilst recording a 2.6 length win over his opponents. With the likelihood of further improvement to come and a draw which suits his racing style, expect him to be flying home late in the race.

(5) Ocean Emperor is coming off a very good second behind Lost and Running, who blitzed his rivals last Wednesday and the two horses that finished behind our bloke, both won their next race in similar or harder grade. He is drawn well to sit predominantly throughout, so he will no doubt be a factor late.

Tip: (6) Salina Dreaming $6.60

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Salina Dreaming FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 31, 2021, 5:56pm (AEDT)

 

I am putting my trust in a horse who hasn’t won since his debut back in May 2020, but I think he will be ready to win first-up.

(7) Acrophobic is a horse who has finished less than a length back in fourth in a Stan Fox and 3.3 lengths back in fifth at Flemington in the TAB Trophy. He has had two 1000m trials in preparation for this 1300m first-up assignment whilst being gelded and the removal of the tongue tie. Whilst he wasn’t asked to do a lot in his trials, you could tell he had improved following his gelding and should be ready to go first-up. The wide draw won’t be bad this time of the day, so expect him to be flying home.

(6) The Grinder is an interesting runner for the Waller camp, having his first race in Australia after coming from New Zealand. He has had two trials in the lead-up to this and I expect him to be a factor in this race at the each-way price.

(2) Quintessa is another at each-way odds that can make her presence known in this race.

Tip: (7) Acrophobic $6.00

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Acrophobic FIXED