Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 17th

Race 1 Seacorp (Rs0ly) (1100m) 4:44pm (AEDT)
1. Devine Beast (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Luke Fernie	5	5	5	5	5.6	4.8
2. Iseered Iseered (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: Luke Fernie	3.4	3.3	3.1	3.2	3.05	3.3
3. Miss Vasari (6) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: D L Morton	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.35	2.3
4. Airlie Queen (4) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: G & A Williams	8	8	7	7.5	7.1	8
5. Hell's Belle (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57.5kg) T: Rhys Radford	9.5	9.5	9	9	10.2	9.5
6. Pouakai (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (56kg) T: Ms J Erkelens	101	91	81	81	97	81

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

Quite happy to stay out of this one to start the day, as it looks a competitive race with no real value in the market and I could make a genuine case for every runner.

(3) Miss Vasari won on debut at Pinjarra before being beaten by Standout Rose last start over 1200m here. They pulled more than 3L clear of the third horse which is generally a good sign. Back to 1100m today, with any improvement she looks the one to beat.

(4) Airlie Queen resumes from a spell and is one of three rides for Pike on the day. She has form around the likes of Em Tee Aye and Home In Five last prep, which wouldn’t see her out of place here.

(6) Pouakai is still a maiden racing in a No-Metro-Win race, but she was luckless last start when she did have market support. She was held up the majority of the straight, and if she had have won that she’d be much shorter than $101 here.

Luke Fernie has two runners in the form of (1) Devine Beast and (2) Iseered Iseered. Devine Beast was only run down very late last start, while Iseered Iseered ran the fastest final 400m in defeat in a harder race at Bunbury. Both chances.

(5) Hell’s Belle probably the one I struggle to make a case for.

Tip: (3) Miss Vasari $2.35 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 2 Tabtouch - Better Your Bet Mdn (1500m) 5:19pm (AEDT)
1. Jono (5) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham	9	9.5	9	9.5	9.1	9
2. Bachelor Boy (9) J: Ms Victoria Corver (58kg) T: S J Ryan	81	101	81	101	101	81
3. American Grin (3) J: Mitchell Pateman (57kg) T: A G Durrant	1.7	1.7	1.65	1.7	1.74	1.75
4. Mine Detector (4) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham	7	6.5	6	6.5	6.1	6
5. Sweet As A Berry (1) J: Jason Whiting (57kg) T: G C Ballantyne	35	41	34	34	38	41
6. Renegade Ruler (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh	31	34	34	31	35	41
7. The Slug (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Luke Fernie	6.5	7	5.5	7	6.7	5
8. Lucie Manette (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
9. Main Engine (6) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55kg) T: T M Andrews	8	8	7.5	8.5	7.9	7.5

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

Exceptionally keen on (3) American Grin here and will be betting accordingly. I think the near-even money is more than fair and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him start shorter. He opened $2.30 and is already into $1.95. He’s had two starts for the new stable and has run 2nd on both occasions, both being huge runs in defeat. First up he came from off the pace and widest in the straight to be beaten a nose. Then last start, he drew barrier 11, went back to last, came widest in the straight and absolutely stormed home behind runaway winner Elafella (click here for the replay). The margin was more than 6L, but it rained on the day and played heavily into the hands of those on pace, especially early. He was given no chance given the pattern and where he was positioned, but his run was superb. Third up today, up to 1500m and he finally draws a gate, so expect to see him settle much closer. With eve luck, I struggle to see anything beating him here.

Tip: (3) American Grin $1.95 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN American Grin

Race 3 Amelia Park Hcp (C3) (1500m) 5:54pm (AEDT)
1. No Apology (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (61kg) T: S J Miller	2.45	2.5	2.45	2.5	2.55	2.3
2. Lil' Red Bikini (1) J: Peter Hall (58.5kg) T: P W Mcleod	6	6	5.5	6.5	5.7	5.5
3. Yulong Earth (5) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: M W Bairstow	4.5	4.5	4.2	4.4	4.65	4.6
4. The Last Breeze (4) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: Brett Pope	14	14	12	12	13	13
5. Censure (6) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	7.5	7	6.5	6.5	7.3	7.5
6. Koranis (7) J: Keshaw Dhurun (55.5kg) T: Jarrad Noske	11	12	11	11	10	12
7. Stella Anne (3) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach	12	10	9.5	11	9.6	11

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 5:56pm (AEDT)

(1) No Apology drops back in grade here but he’s had his fair share of chances to notch up another win. He’s now won just two of his 18 starts and won’t get many better chances than this, but he’s  short enough at $2.20.

(5) Censure is the one that really catches my eye at each way odds. She resumed at Albany and you can forget she went around. She was held up behind runners for the whole straight and was never really able to be placed under full pressure by Chris Parnham. She’s never placed in four starts when first up, but has run 2nd in both starts when second up, so I’d expect her to be competitive today. She ran 2nd in the same grade as this last prep.

(2) Lil Red Bikini seems to turn up every second week in WA. She’s only won three from 30 starts.

(3) Yulong Earth has a few fans out there today but you can leave me out. He is potentially the biggest nutter in racing. I stopped backing him after I tipped him at 20/1 one day, he hit the front and then pulled up right before the post. He always looks the winner at some point but he’s a horse that can’t be trusted, especially at that price.

Tough to play this race as there are only seven runners, so will equal stake No Apology and Censure rather than backing Censure each way.

Tip: (5) Censure $8.50 Unibet

Saver: (1) No Apology $2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Censure, 0.5 units WIN No Apology

Race 4 Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (1400m) 6:34pm (AEDT)
1. Trade Master (8) J: Alan Kennedy (60kg) T: E A Martinovich	21	20	19	21	19	19
2. Completed (11) J: Patrick Carbery (59kg) T: J G Pike	67	67	61	71	69	61
3. Doowahdiddy (7) J: Mitchell Pateman (59kg) T: Martin Allan	2.8	2.7	2.7	2.9	2.8	2.7
4. Icarian (2) J: Ms Madi Derrick (58kg) T: G C Ballantyne	46	41	41	61	53	34
5. Shooting Shirocco (5) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Patrick Keating	6	6	5	5	6	6
6. Regal Dividend (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57kg) T: N D Parnham	5.5	5	5	5.5	5	5
7. Rock This Country (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57kg) T: Robyn Cottman	21	21	21	21	18.6	23
8. The Thunderess (1) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: L Smith	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.2	6.5
9. Snip'n'tuck (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant	12	10	9.5	11	10.8	9
10. Sweet Demand (10) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D & B Pearce	18	18	19	21	20	19
11. Zip Zam Zoom (9) J: Troy Turner (56kg) T: F R Kersley	16	16	16	16	14.8	16

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 6:36pm (AEDT)

The favourite (3) Doowahdiddy looks the obvious one here but I think she is short enough at $2.60 given her low winning strike rate. She always runs well, placing in nine of her 11 starts, but she’s only won one of them. She resumed with a good effort behind Rexford 10 days ago and she will be right in the finish, but there’s two others I’m interested in backing to beat her.

(6) Regal Dividend is third up today and improved noticeably from her first run to her second run this prep. She was comfortably beaten by Nobel Laurence last start but I think that’s a form line that can be trusted as I think the winner is pretty smart. Looks the obvious leader and can run a big race.

(8) The Thunderess looks to be going just OK, but I think she’s actually been racing really well all prep without much going her way. She’s been the victim of some very negative rides this prep, as well as some track patterns being against her when she’s raced. Interesting to see where she gets to from barrier 1 today because if there is any intent out of the gates, she can be very competitive here at a decent price.

Tip: (6) Regal Dividend $5.50 Bet365

Value: (8) The Thunderess $7.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Regal Dividend, 1 unit WIN The Thunderess

Race 5 Autumn Ascot Racing (Rs0ly) (1800m) 7:10pm (AEDT)
1. Majinika (2) J: Ms Victoria Corver (62.5kg) T: A W Maley	16	16	16	16	16.2	16
2. Marocchino (1) J: Paul Harvey (59.5kg) T: L P Luciani	4	4	4	4.2	4.05	4
3. Lyle's Choice (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: D & B Pearce	7	7	7	7	6.9	7
4. Brother's Keeper (10) J: Mitchell Pateman (56.5kg) T: Felicity Forbes-Ives
5. Chiclett (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: D & B Pearce	6.5	6.5	6	7.5	6.8	5.5
6. Acermetric (7) J: Shaun O'donnell (55.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens	5	5	4.6	4.4	5.1	5
7. Hyperspace (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	15	14	13	15	13.8	13
8. Admiral Promo (11) J: Chris Graham (54kg) T: Sue Olive	41	41	41	41	43	51
9. Golden Bonney (6) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (54kg) T: Patrick Keating	23	26	26	26	26.5	26
10. Temptacion (5) J: Chris Parnham (54kg) T: D L Morton	3.8	3.9	3.6	3.3	3.75	4
11. Wild Galah (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach	67	67	71	81	73	71

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 7:11pm (AEDT)

Competitive race.

(10) Temptacion comes off a dominant victory in Class 1 company and now steps up to Class 3. This is a tougher race but it was hard not to be impressed with her win and that was here at Ascot with the rail in a very similar position to where it is today. She’s drawn barrier 5 for a nice run and if she’s able to produce similar to last start, she’ll be hard to beat again.

(3) Lyle’s Choice looks the value in the race at $8.00. He resumed over the mile this time in and ran 2nd behind Miss Marietta, who then came out and won again on Saturday in town. We might be going one run too soon here as he tends to peak third up, but he’s already up to 1800m today compared to 1400m when second up last prep. Draws well and looks a good chance to me.

(5) Chiclett will find this much easier after taking on the likes of Kissonallforcheeks and Magical Dream last start. She settled last that day and struggled to make ground. Back up to 1800m now but she draws barrier 9 so is likely to be right near the back again.

(6) Acermetric can take up a position on speed and be there for a long way.

Tip: (10) Temptacion $4.00 Bet365

Value: (3) Lyle's Choice $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Temptacion, 0.5 units WIN Lyle's Choice

Race 6 Flying Colours Restaurant (C1) (1800m) 7:45pm (AEDT)
1. Go It Alone (2) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: L Smith	11	10	10	12	10.4	9.5
2. Tick Along (5) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (60kg) T: Brett Pope	8.5	8.5	8	8.5	8.2	8
3. Frequent Friar (3) J: Paul Harvey (59kg) T: J T Warwick	27	26	26	26	25	26
4. Tumivet (12) J: Mitchell Pateman (59kg) T: Martin Allan	1.7	1.7	1.65	1.65	1.64	1.65
5. Warcidium (11) J: Troy Turner (59kg) T: F R Kersley	11	11	10	10	11	12
6. Pasaran (10) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: Brett Pope	17	17	15	15	17	17
7. Smoking Barrel (9) J: Steven Parnham (58kg) T: E S Wake	31	34	31	31	29.5	34
8. Trisuem (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: P E Roberts	9.5	9	8.5	9	9.6	8.5
9. Winsalot (1) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: L P Luciani
10. Lady Hatras (4) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: B M Smithall	35	41	41	41	45	41
11. All On Black (13) J: Chris Graham (55.5kg) T: P D Tapper	81	81	81	51	79	101
12. Denzoe (7) J: Ms Michelle Hagley (54.5kg) T: A W Maley	61	81	81	81	69	81
13. Tabella (6) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54kg) T: A H Mortimer	26	26	26	26	26	26

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

(4) Tumivet bolted in on debut, jumping straight to the front and giving nothing else a sight. The margin was 3.2L and could have been more, but he was eased down in the final stages. He jumps from barrier 12 today but should be able to come across and take up a position, and there doesn’t really look to be a whole lot in this field that will test him.

(1) Go It Alone is an interesting runner, resuming from a 70-week spell for the Lindsey Smith stable. He won on debut over 1700m at Warrnambool and now resumes over 1800m after the lengthy absence. Brad Rawiller takes the ride – his only one for the day – and if there’s any market support I’d be very wary.

Tip: (4) Tumivet $1.80 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Tumivet

Race 7 Seppelt Wines Hcp (C3) (1200m) 8:20pm (AEDT)
1. No Mean Feet (2) J: Ms Victoria Corver (60kg) T: Ms J Kelly	8	7	6	8.5	8.6	5
2. Wiener Waltz (1) J: Ms Mollie Clark (59kg) T: Steele Casey	7.5	7.5	7	7	8	7.5
3. Gibraltar Dancer (9) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58.5kg) T: T W Crosby
4. City Centre (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57.5kg) T: Brett Pope	10	10	10	9	10.2	10
5. Fair Justice (12) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57.5kg) T: G J Yuill	12	11	11	13	11.6	11
6. Katona (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: R G Turrell Jnr	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.5	7.5	8.5
7. Congreve Rocket (4) J: William Pike (57kg) T: Patrick Keating	2.9	3	2.9	2.8	2.85	3.2
8. Chili Is Hot (3) J: Jason Whiting (56.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
9. Looks Like Magic (11) J: Ms Madi Derrick (56.5kg) T: Tracey Diederich	26	26	21	21	21.5	23
10. Oihana (5) J: Ms Lisa Staples (55kg) T: Ivan Haggerty	41	34	34	34	38	34
11. Neat Action (7) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham
12. Rexford (8) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms R Lockwood	19	20	17	16	17.2	19

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 8:21pm (AEDT)

Another competitive race to close out the card.

(2) Wiener Waltz was good first up at Mount Barker, coming from last to be beaten less than a length. He’s only placed in one of his five starts when first up but has a win and a 2nd from two starts when second up. Draws barrier 1 today so can be much more positive and looks a decent price.

(6) Katona didn’t get much luck last start when restrained from the gates and then held up until the 200m mark. Two starts ago he ran 2nd to the promising Triple Missile, then arguably should have won that last race. Draws wide again today but that’s not the worst thing when the rail is out so far. With even luck, I think he goes close.

(7) Congrieve Rocket makes his debut for the new stable and Pike goes on. He showed plenty of promise early before tapering off in his final two starts for David Harrison. Draws well and if he returns to his best, he’ll be right in this.

(8) Chilli Is Hot is another that showed plenty early on but failed to go on with it in three starts last prep. She’s had a short let up and on best form would go close, but it’s hard to trust this stable on current form.

Tip: (2) Wiener Waltz $7.00 TAB

Value: (6) Katona $10 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Wiener Waltz, 0.5 units WIN Katona