Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 17th

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 3:06pm (AEDT)

Open maiden. (2) Extrapolate was good first up over 1400m and gets the blinkers on from barrier one here which should suit. Looks a leading chance but not jumping out of trees to back him at $4.

 

(7) Old Fashioned is coming off a 1500m Hillside run where he finished 3^rd to Bellinger. That’s solid maiden form and is another with gear changes, with the winkers going on.

 

(5) Helmiton keeps D Lane 2^nd up for the new camp. He’s had a stack of chances, but they were with the Michelle Payne stable so perhaps he’s worth a clean slate. Off the first up run he’s a big chance and does map forward.

 

(6) Let Him Rip was wide in a good maiden first up and can improve but does draw wide again and might get a fair way back.

 

Tip: (2) Helmiton- $4.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 3:41pm (AEDT)

(5) Litchfield County is a very progressive horse who was far too good at Werribee first up where he was truck loaded into $1.40. The map is a bit sticky drawn out wide with plenty of speed underneath but if he gets OSL or 1-1 he’ll be hard to beat.

 

(1) Baby Boomer is terrifying. He’s had a year off the track and changed from the Gollan stable in QLD to L Smith. He bolted in with a Terang jumpout recently and his form around The Odyssey would make him very hard to beat. If he’s firm in the market he’ll run a huge race, but it’s hard to have any confidence until then.

 

(6) Nightfire did nothing wrong in his first up win over 1000m at Pakenham. The form out of that race has been excellent with 2^nd and 3^rd both winning their next start, and he beat them by 2L and 8L. He maps well from barrier 5 behind a good speed and at the odds I thought he was worthy of something small.

 

(3) Hellova Night won nicely on debut and has been given time, coming here first up.

 

Tip: (6) Nightfire- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Nightfire

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

(6) Dubai Star was okay first up at Canterbury but hasn’t won since her 2yo days. Back onto a firmer surface should help and she’ll probably lead, but 1400m might be a bit far and she’s a bit of a squib that can fold up over the last 200m.

 

(2) Charleise wasn’t in the best ground at Caulfield last start and is 6 weeks fresh into this, where she does race well. The map is a touch sticky again from barrier 2 because they seem intent on riding this horse midfield or best when she has the speed to settle closer.

 

(7) Hot In Paris ties in easily with Charleise through Need New Friends and is racing very well. The end of 1400m is a bit of a query but if you can run on she’ll be in the finish.

 

(3) Monumental Lady ran on well first up behind one well respected in the market here and has placed three times when 2^nd up, but this is a harder class than she’s used to.

 

Tip: (6) Dubai Star- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

Good race. (1) Mystery Shot did it tough out wide on a good tempo last start but proved too strong. I don’t mind the drop back to 1400m and this is no harder. He should be at peak fitness and the outside barrier means he should be able to come across and lob just behind the leaders.

 

(2) Legionnaire was okay down the straight first up and is better suited around a bend. He can probably lead from barrier 2 and did run 3^rd to Ancestry when he was 2^nd up last prep. If leaders are advantaged, he’ll be hard to beat.

 

(5) Shandy had jumped out exceptionally well and did win three straight to kick off last prep. She could land leader’s back from barrier 3 and if the jumpout is anything to go by she’s come back well.

 

Tip: (1) Mystery Shot- $2.80 at Bet365

Saver: (2) Legionnaire- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mystery Shot, 0.5 units WIN Legionnaire

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

(9) Yulong Code seems a big price given he started odds on in a similar race last start. He had the blinkers on and over raced inside the leader, fading late to be beaten 1.75L by Lofty Star and Derive, which is good form. The start prior he ran on fairly, beaten 3L by Poland which is clearly good form. The blinkers come off for this and I’d expect they let him settle off pace.

 

(5) Frankie Two Angels was wide without cover first up over 1200m at The Valley and ran on well for 3^rd behind Snapper and Savannah Cloud. He might be better over further but given how well he went first up the 1400m looks ideal.

 

(8) Seguso started $2.30 and had every chance last start but still ran well after a big first up win. He finished just behind Ice Ice baby who Frankie Two Angels beat home first up. He should be able to settle a bit closer from barrier 2.

 

(1) Jimmy Rockford has won both starts and doesn’t mind a scrap. He maps beautifully from barrier 6 and will run well again.

 

Tip: (9) Yulong Code- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Frankie Two Angels- $18.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Yulong Code, 0.25 units WIN Frankie Two Angels

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 6:01pm (AEDT)

One of the toughest races on the card. (3) Dominus beat a fairly handy one in Sandsation last start after running on well first up. The map is the query, drawn barrier 9 he likely gets a fair way back.

 

(6) Antagoniser was desperately unlucky first up and generally improves with a run under his belt. He’s another that draws wide and generally gets back.

 

(11) Maid Of Iron was too good on debut in the Spring and has jumped out well. She maps better than a few of these more experienced horses.

 

(1) Ring Of Honour generally goes well fresh and is definitely good enough to win, even with the big weight. The run two back when close up behind Chaillot is excellent form.

 

Tip: (3) Dominus- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 6:31pm (AEDT)

Keen on (1) Excelman here 2^nd up. He should’ve won first up when a long way back in a slowly run race and was still held up, flashing late to just miss. He was first up at 1500m there so should be improved and did run a narrow 2^nd to Criminal with 5L back to 3^rd when 2^nd up last prep. Olly replaces Jack Martin and unless it’s a rail highway, I think he’ll be too strong.

 

(12) Sandsation has been close up in all three starts this prep and does get map favours from barrier 4. She’ll also carry 7.5kg less than Excelman and be in front of him in the run.

 

(3) Play Me Now can roll forward and stuck on okay behind a good one in Eagles Crag last start.

 

Tip: (1) Excelman- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Excelman

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 7:01pm (AEDT)

A combination of deductions and backing have smashed the price, but (3) Sign Seal Deliver does look the one to beat in the last. He was so close in a driving finish first up over 1800m and obviously has scope to improve. The knock is that he’s only won 1 from 15, albeit many in stronger races- the 2^nd to Persan is obviously very good form.

 

(7) Magnossiva seems to have been racing at every Wednesday meeting for the last two months and running a minor placing every time. He had his chance in the Sign Seal Deliver race but steps up past 1800m for the first time.

 

(2) The Mockingbird drops in trip after a good run behind Shepard over 2400m last start.

 

Sign Seal Deliver won’t get a better chance to record win number 2.

Tip: (3) Sign Seal Deliver- $2.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Sign Seal Deliver