Canterbury Racing Tips: Friday, February 12th

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Mightybeel goes on top after an impressive return at Newcastle first-up. He did a lot wrong throughout the race and still managed to finish off well enough in second, 2.3 lengths off the winner. He is drawn much better than last start and providing he isn’t slow to begin, he should be in a slightly better position in the run. He should come on nicely from that first-up run and be hard to beat here.

(4) Zudin should have finished a lot closer last start after being held up in a key part of the straight. Drawn to get a similar run here and Tommy will have the job to try ensure he gets some space at the right time. He is the main danger to the favourite especially with the blinkers going on first time.

(11) Kobestar had to go back last start from the draw before over-racing throughout. He is drawn much better here to be a factor in the race and could be a nice each-way bet for those looking for some value.

Tip: (1) Mightybeel $2.95

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mightybeel B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

I don’t mind (6) Diva Bella here at decent each-way odds. She got held up around the bend last start before shifting out from behind that runner only to get behind another slowing runner. Once she was shifted to behind the eventual winner of the race and the gap appeared, she really accelerated through and although she finished in fifth, it was by less than a length. She is no stranger to running well in town as she finished 2.5 lengths off Varda last preparation. Her draw is a touch awkward here, but I think there will be more speed than what is shown on paper. She does go up in weight but that is because she is back to mares’ grade and I expect her to be very competitive. Due to scratchings, she has now become a win bet.

(4) Brazen Gem had every chance to get past Vreneli but just couldn’t. Back to mares’ grade suits and the addition of James McDonald enhances her chances. Happy to oppose as I like many have been burnt too many times.

(2) Miss Sure Shot was poor last start at Warwick Farm, but I am willing to put a line through it and concentrate on the fact that she has a good draw and should sit a lot closer in the run. Tommy Berry takes the reins which is a positive and being back in mares’ grade boosts her chances. She will be hoping it dries up a touch.

Tip: (6) Diva Bella $8.60

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Diva Bella B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Although she is yet to win this preparation, (6) Joliette looks set to run another bold race here.

She did well in the same grade last start at Kensington but couldn’t bridge the gap on the master ride of Elegant Grace by Brenton Avdulla. She still beat the rest of the field by 1.5 lengths+ so all in all it wasn’t a bad run. I think they have found her niche by riding her just off the leaders as she seems to respond better. I don’t think it will matter what the track is like, so long as she gets into her nice rhythm and sits prominently in the run, she is going to be hard to tackle in the end.

(7) Harmonium will likely go forward from the ideal draw. She has been consistent this preparation without winning and gets a chance here in a speed with little speed. She gets 1.5kg off from Jean Van Overmeire which puts her in a nice position weight wise. The query is if she is up to this sort of grade?

(1) Miss Redoble got the win she had been craving last start and goes up 2kg from that run which includes Louise Day’s 2kg claim. Where she gets to in the run is the query but she will be running home late.

Tip: (6) Joliette $3.20

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Joliette B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

(7) Jungle Book is enjoying his life at his new stable and you can tell by the way he is racing. Two back he won well at Warwick Farm and when stepped up to 1900m last start, he narrowly missed after racing in tightened room from the 150m to 75m out. He gets another crack at the 1900m at Canterbury and is drawn much better here and should be able to sit a touch more prominent. Jason Collett back on is a big tick and he will handle any weather, so we don’t have to worry there. He is good each-way odds at the moment.

(6) Toscanini is returning from a let-up after finishing second in the Grand Prix Stakes at Eagle Farm in December. This is a nice drop in class but I am unsure whether he will have enough residual fitness to be competitive over 1900m, despite having a trial since.

(4) California Longbow gets the blinkers once again and faces the easiest race grade wise in two preparations. Kerrin McEvoy on shows intent and will give some of these a start from the poor draw. He isn’t the worst double figure horse and can show up here.

Tip: (7) Jungle Book $6.00/$2.38 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Jungle Book B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Wide open race here with the market having it at $6.00 the field.

(5) Miss Bosetti goes on top for me here as she finished 3L last off the winner Marway on Australia Day at Warwick Farm despite starting poorly, racing in a position she wasn’t used to and the fact she was slow to recover. She drops in grade, back to her own age group and steps up to 1200m which are both positive factors and should sit in a better position to last start which should enhance her chances. She is worth a small speck just because she is overs.

(11) Expat led and won well at Newcastle and despite drawing wide, will look to lead again with the 2kg claim of Tom Sherry taking her weight down to 56.5kg. If this track is playing leaderish, she will make her own luck and be hard to catch.

(14) All Hallows’ Eve will become a bet if she gets a run. She should come on leaps and bounds from her first preparation.

Tip: (11) Expat $5.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Nothing overly appeals to me in this race.

(7) Kaptive goes on top here after finally getting the maiden win out of the way. McEvoy rated the ride well and put him into a nice position throughout before taking over late in the race to salute by just under a length. He is drawn to get a similar run here should they want it and regardless of the track conditions, he should be fine. I think he can be very competitive in this class.

(6) Major Artie was good at Gosford, leading the entire way for a win by less than a length. He is drawn well and is fit, so expect him to look the winner at some point in the straight.

(3) Above and Beyond is expecting to run a lot better after being slow to recover after last start. He comes back majorly in grade here and only carries 58.5kg with Louise Day’s claim. He should be a major chance providing he can sit midfield with some cover and not get too far off them.

Tip: (7) Kaptive $8.50/$2.90 E/W

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

I am willing to put a line through (3) Lancaster Bomber’s last run despite only finishing one length back in fourth. He missed the kick by two lengths and settled further back than the previous two runs this preparation before coming home nicely. He comes back from a benchmark 78 in Saturday grade to “mid-week” grade and is drawn ideally out of barrier one. Nash Rawiller is back aboard which gives me confidence and he should go close to leading or box seating, providing he starts with them. He is going to be hard to run down.

(2) Starspangled Rodeo is coming out of the same race as (3) Lancaster Bomber and settled behind him in the run after losing ground at the start and over-racing as he was restrained to the rear of the field. He came home well with (3) Lancaster Bomber, but finished almost a length behind him. There is no weight relief from that run but he is drawn better than last start and should sit a lot closer in the run. The addition of James McDonald will have the punters flocking to back it.

Keen to see the Australian debut of (7) Ventura Ocean here and I expect him to be hitting the line nicely.

Tip: (3) Lancaster Bomber $4.00

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lancaster Bomber B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

I was on (7) Major Time last time out at $26s and we missed a placing by 0.3 of a length but that wasn’t the worst of it. He was slow to begin on the day and was steadied from heels approaching the 400m and again when being disappointed for a run entering the straight. He then was shifted to the inside for clear running and ran in restricted room near the 100m mark when once again he had to be steadied. He is drawn similarly to last start and again gets the 2kg claim of Louise Day which brings him down to 55.5kg. He has once again come up at decent each-way odds, so I am going to give him another chance.

(3) Partners is going to get up and go here from a nice barrier and will set the tone from the outset. He drops back in grade which will assist his chances and Brock Ryan will knock 2kg off his back to ensure he isn’t carrying a big weight. He is another who can shake this up at double digits.

(4) Nosey looks the best of the rest, in a race that has multiple chances.

Tip: (7) Major Time $15.00/$4.60 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Major Time B3TSP