Caulfield Racing Tips: Sunday, December 26th

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

(1) Decent Raine clearly looks the one to beat provided she holds her form. She drew wide and went back at this T/D last start but was clearly the run of the race for 2^nd. In a smaller field where she settled closer at Ballarat she was dominant and this race sets up similarly. She’s not badly in after the claim and her turn of foot should be too good.

(5) Treporti was solid behind Squid Game two back who has won well again since. The maiden win at The Valley was tradesman like but he got there and should be fine at 1400m.

(6) Royal Fox was solid at 1400m last start but did have the race run to suit- this looks a different set up drawn barrier 1 in a small field.

Tip: (1) Decent Raine- $2.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Decent Raine

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

The raced ones have shown decent talent but the market suggests the debutants have the wood. (5) Jacquinot has jumped out very well, putting 4.5L on the heat under little riding.

(11) Golden Queen was good behind a potentially handy one in Bistro on debut. The extra 200m should suit but that was a very slowly run race.

(9) Yoshino and (3) Emrys the Godolphin pair look the best roughies- they both hit the line well on debut and should appreciate the trip.

Not keen to bet here but if you want a roughie for exotics Yoshino can run well at $23.

 

Tip: (9) Yoshino- $23.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

(11) Swerving looks value here. The maiden win was narrow but had merit on the clock, 4.5L above the class benchmark. The 4^th horse, Oughton, has since beaten Port Louis in a maiden. The speed looks strong here and I expect her to be strong late.

(8) Irish Mist comes out of a similar race behind Marine One, who would be a clear favourite here. She led there and stuck on well for 4^th, beaten 2.25L. Can’t work out why he’s $26 compared to (1) Jagar at $13 despite beating him home.

(13) Jezoulenko won a Geelong maiden last start which rated almost identical to Swerving. She’s a good chance with Kah on but it’s an open race.

Tip: (11) Swerving- $7.50 at TAB

Value: (8) Irish Mist- $26.00/7.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Swerving, 0.25 units E/W Irish Mist

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

I’ve seen worse $34 shots than (2) Contalmasion fresh. He’s got a good first up record (4:2-1-0) and really found some good form last prep, winning three races including an all the way victory over subsequent stakes winner Free To Move. He might need the run but I’m happy to have a throw at the stumps.

(14) In The Boat was dominant last start when out to 1300m and the run prior when 2^nd to Duchess Of Dorset at $2.60 reads very well for this. He’s 8 weeks between runs but back in trip to the 1100m. He might be able to hold the lead from the inside.

(17) Tax Free Prophet needs one to come out but should appreciate 1100m after getting a long way back at The Valley over 955m last start.

(5) Rigel Star is fresh off a short spell but ran some good races last prep.

Tip: (2) Contalmasion- $34.00/9.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Contalmasion

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

(6) Ocean’s Thirteen had no luck last start at The Valley. I was surprised they didn’t try to lead from barrier 2 and ended up back on the fence, never really getting out. She was well backed from $9-6 there and should be ready to peak here 3^rd up.

(13) Americain Angel was given a freshen and ran well back to 1400m last start. She’s going to have to get a long way back though and can find it hard to win.

(14) Secret Glamour takes on the older horses after hitting the line well over 1400m last start. Don’t think that 3yo form is great and she likely gets back too.

(3) Intellective should be fitter and appreciate the mile.

Tip: (6) Ocean’s Thirteen- $21.00/5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Ocean’s Thirteen

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

Found this tricky. (5) Lyrical Lad is flying this prep and went from heavy to dry no problems last start, beating subsequent Flemington winner High ‘n’ Dry. He has to extend to 2000m now but I can’t see that being a huge issue.

(13) The Awesome Son went from wet to dry last start at Pakenham and was too strong again, coming from a long way back to knock off Kissinger. This race isn’t much harder despite a rise in grade and with 54kg he’ll be flying home again.

(4) Daqiansweet Junior next best coming off two consecutive wins.

 

Tip: (13) The Awesome Son- $6.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Another one at odds that I think can run well today is (10) Holbein. He finally led last start when 4^th up and fully fit, and went out at a very strong tempo (12L above the all avg benchmark to the 800m). There’s very little pressure on paper and I think he can control this at a big price.

(9) Bonvicini has worked her way into form, running a good 4^th in the Matriarch two back before looking a touch unlucky last start here over 1800m. She can get into a good spot midfield and run well again.

(6) Starelle was rock solid in the same race and did narrowly beat Bonvicini home in the Matriarch. No real knocks on her either.

(12) Agreeable gets past a mile for the first time which is interesting. She hit the line well from last in a slowly run race behind Steinem last start but hasn’t seen a fast run race all prep so the extra trip is a query, although she may now be looking for it.

 

Tip: (10) Holbein- $17.00/4.40 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Holbein

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 5:12pm (AEDT)

Can’t wait to see undefeated mare (17) Marabi again who should justify the short quote. She was breathtaking on resumption, bolting in by 7 lengths over a strong bm70 field. She’s been in relatively slowly run races all her career, so it’ll be interesting to see how she goes in what is almost guaranteed to be a very fast tempo.

(2) Ancestry is an interesting one. We know his level of talent is very good, but he hasn’t been able to show it in a while. He’s typically better with a run under his belt but I thought his two jumpouts were very good- able to sit off the leader and cruise past them. He may be crossed from barrier 2.

(10) Outlaws Revenge is flying in SA and this looks a nice race for him. He should be able to get a nice camp midfield off a hot tempo.

(12) Curran wasn’t suited last start dropping back to 1000m in a good race. His work late and through the line was very good, and I’m convinced 1100m is his trip. His 3^rd to Malkovich in the Caulfield Sprint is a good form reference for this.

Marabi very hard to beat but the tempo will be on and a good test for her. Ancestry piques my interest at big odds, and Curran should run well.

Tip: (2) Ancestry- $26.00/4.80 at TAB

Also Backing: (12) Curran- $17.00/3.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Ancestry, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Curran

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 5:52pm (AEDT)

Near impossible finish- go wide in the quaddie. (5) Zoltan has been well backed early for his Australian debut. He finished midfield in a Group 2 in NZ last start, ahead of recent Randwick winner Lightning Jack which is good enough form to be competitive here.

(6) Eluding was just grabbed late last start at Flemington and gets Currie on replacing the apprentice. The draw looks a bit sticky at the 1400m start.

(3) Do You Reckon will need to get across cheaply and early but if so he can run well at a price. He’s been beaten by Lighthouse his last two but has been flattered by leading at slow tempos, which I doubt he finds here.

(2) Sig Positano is racing very well this prep and will just need luck from barrier 2 to be in the finish again.

Tip: (5) Zoltan- $12.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet