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Caulfield Racing Tips: Sunday, December 26th

Racing at Caulfield for Boxing Day and Trent Crebbin has found plenty of horses at huge odds.

caulfield racing tips

Boxing day racing at Caulfield on Sunday for a traditionally strong meeting.

Trent Crebbin has previewed every race and found plenty of roughies on top, including a $17 best bet!

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is true.

Best Bet- Race 7 (10) Holbein

Best Value- Race 8 (2) Ancestry 

TAB Sky Racing

205632

Race 1

Neds Punters Toolbox (Bm70) (1400m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Neds Punters Toolbox (Bm70) (1400m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

1. Decent Raine (3) J: Matthew Cartwright (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
33.23.3
2. Scarlet Prince (6) J: Simon Miller (58kg) T: Mitchell Beer
161817
3. Victory Bay (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57kg) T: P G Moody
3.73.73.7
4. Tonneofgrit (2) J: Jye Mcneil (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
665.6
5. Treporti (5) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: D T O'brien
554.7
6. Royal Fox (1) J: John Allen (56kg) T: M J Williams
8.58.58.9

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

(1) Decent Raine clearly looks the one to beat provided she holds her form. She drew wide and went back at this T/D last start but was clearly the run of the race for 2nd. In a smaller field where she settled closer at Ballarat she was dominant and this race sets up similarly. She’s not badly in after the claim and her turn of foot should be too good.

(5) Treporti was solid behind Squid Game two back who has won well again since. The maiden win at The Valley was tradesman like but he got there and should be fine at 1400m.

(6) Royal Fox was solid at 1400m last start but did have the race run to suit- this looks a different set up drawn barrier 1 in a small field.

Tip: (1) Decent Raine- $2.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Decent Raine

205632

Race 2

Frank Obrien Hcp (1200m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Frank Obrien Hcp (1200m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

1. Jamarra (12) J: John Allen (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9.59.59.5
2. Celtic Lightning (10) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: Yoshitomo Shima
676159
3. Emrys (5) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings
161717.2
4. Gold Bucket (2) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
515149
5. Jacquinot (13) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
4.24.64.45
6. Ready To Conquer (11) J: Jake Noonan (58kg) T: F Stockdale
615151
7. Semper Invictus (9) J: Ms Kacie Adams (58kg) T: S Spackman
344143
8. The Swooper (8) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
77.56.4
9. Yoshino (1) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: James Cummings
182119.2
10. Cover Star (3) J: Fred Kersley (57.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
8.58.58.5
11. Golden Queen (4) J: Ms Linda Meech (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
665.7
12. Queen Latifa (14) J: Thomas Stockdale (56kg) T: G Eurell
313434
13. New York Scandal (7) J: Lewis German (56kg) T: Aaron Laing
616161
14. Thesecondatportsea (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: D T O'brien
665.4

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

The raced ones have shown decent talent but the market suggests the debutants have the wood. (5) Jacquinot has jumped out very well, putting 4.5L on the heat under little riding.

(11) Golden Queen was good behind a potentially handy one in Bistro on debut. The extra 200m should suit but that was a very slowly run race.

(9) Yoshino and (3) Emrys the Godolphin pair look the best roughies- they both hit the line well on debut and should appreciate the trip.

Not keen to bet here but if you want a roughie for exotics Yoshino can run well at $23.

 

Tip: (9) Yoshino- $23.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

205632

Race 3

Joe Brown (Bm70) (1100m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Joe Brown (Bm70) (1100m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

1. Jagar (3) J: Damian Lane (59.5kg) T: M J Ellerton
161614.6
2. Miss Ostend (11) J: Josh Richards (59.5kg) T: N F Gardner
3. Butter Blonde (1) J: Ms Linda Meech (58.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
88.58.5
4. Bay Of Islands (9) J: John Allen (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.56.56.9
5. Dueastar (5) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: M J Williams
131213.6
6. Foxicon (6) J: Thomas Stockdale (58kg) T: P G Moody
665.8
7. Ghumaama (7) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
141514
8. Irish Mist (4) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: Nick Ryan
131112.2
9. Sigh (12) J: Alana Kelly (58kg) T: Peter Moody
10. Suricate (13) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: A & S Freedman
11. Swerving (8) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: L & T Corstens
5.55.55.6
12. Wanaroo (2) J: Patrick Moloney (58kg) T: Symon Wilde
13. Jezoulenko (14) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: M J Ellerton
4.654.2
14. Jillette (10) J: Fred Kersley (57.5kg) T: M & L Cerchi
515153
15. Rowdy Rebel (15) J: Zac Spain (57.5kg) T: S P Nichols
91101101

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

(11) Swerving looks value here. The maiden win was narrow but had merit on the clock, 4.5L above the class benchmark. The 4th horse, Oughton, has since beaten Port Louis in a maiden. The speed looks strong here and I expect her to be strong late.

(8) Irish Mist comes out of a similar race behind Marine One, who would be a clear favourite here. She led there and stuck on well for 4th, beaten 2.25L. Can’t work out why he’s $26 compared to (1) Jagar at $13 despite beating him home.

(13) Jezoulenko won a Geelong maiden last start which rated almost identical to Swerving. She’s a good chance with Kah on but it’s an open race.

Tip: (11) Swerving- $7.50 at TAB

Value: (8) Irish Mist- $26.00/7.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Swerving, 0.25 units E/W Irish Mist

205632

Race 4

Dennis Hanrahan (Bm70) (1100m)
2:40pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Dennis Hanrahan (Bm70) (1100m)
2:40pm (AEDT)

1. Deep Dive (2) J: Ms Alana Kelly (63kg) T: A & S Freedman
10119.7
2. Contalmaison (7) J: Josh Richards (62kg) T: Cheryl Weller
313135
3. Ruban Bleu (13) J: Lewis German (61kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
4. No Change (19) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (60.5kg) T: Shane Stockdale
10110185
5. Rigel Star (15) J: Patrick Moloney (60.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
161916.2
6. Alburq (14) J: Thomas Stockdale (60kg) T: M D Moroney
7. China Affair (11) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (60kg) T: Clayton Douglas
616163
8. Soul Obsession (5) J: Matthew Cartwright (60kg) T: A & S Freedman
9109.4
9. Wilmot Pass (16) J: Ms Jamie Kah (60kg) T: A & S Freedman
10. Yulong Defence (6) J: Zac Spain (60kg) T: P Stokes
101010
11. Invincible Jet (17) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
776
12. Picargo (10) J: Dom Tourneur (59kg) T: Ryan Balfour
131214.2
13. Rolling Moss (4) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: Shawn Mathrick
14. In The Boat (1) J: Jye Mcneil (58.5kg) T: L Smith
3.33.43.5
15. Onslaught (12) J: Ethan Brown (58.5kg) T: Shawn Mathrick
126101111
16. Real Feeling (9) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (58.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
111312.8
17. Tax Free Prophet (3) J: Craig Newitt (57.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
161817
18. Big Apple (8) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: M M Laurie
111110.8
19. Nasraawy (18) J: Daniel Moor (57kg) T: Gavin Bedggood

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

I’ve seen worse $34 shots than (2) Contalmasion fresh. He’s got a good first up record (4:2-1-0) and really found some good form last prep, winning three races including an all the way victory over subsequent stakes winner Free To Move. He might need the run but I’m happy to have a throw at the stumps.

(14) In The Boat was dominant last start when out to 1300m and the run prior when 2nd to Duchess Of Dorset at $2.60 reads very well for this. He’s 8 weeks between runs but back in trip to the 1100m. He might be able to hold the lead from the inside.

(17) Tax Free Prophet needs one to come out but should appreciate 1100m after getting a long way back at The Valley over 955m last start.

(5) Rigel Star is fresh off a short spell but ran some good races last prep.

Tip: (2) Contalmasion- $34.00/9.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Contalmasion

205632

Race 5

Ken Sturt (Bm70) (1600m)
3:15pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Ken Sturt (Bm70) (1600m)
3:15pm (AEDT)

1. Under My Spell (11) J: Ms Alana Kelly (63.5kg) T: N A Blackiston
182019.8
2. La Marita (1) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (63kg) T: Andrew Payne
263434
3. Intellective (6) J: Thomas Stockdale (62kg) T: M J Williams
182021
4. Derive (9) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (61.5kg) T: M J Ellerton
262626.5
5. Riotous Mischief (4) J: Josh Richards (61.5kg) T: Andrew Bobbin
202120.5
6. Ocean's Thirteen (8) J: Matthew Cartwright (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
312630
7. Soaring Eagle (3) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (60kg) T: D R Brideoake
414143
8. Star Of Eden (10) J: Jordan Childs (60kg) T: M D Moroney
342634
9. Starspangled Baby (2) J: Jake Noonan (59.5kg) T: Ms S Trolove
262626.5
10. Starring Role (7) J: Fred Kersley (59kg) T: M D Hinton
615163
11. Defiant Diva (5) J: John Allen (58kg) T: L & T Corstens
44.23.95
12. Hendrika (13) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: Andrew Bobbin
678171
13. Americain Angel (14) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57kg) T: D T O'brien
3.33.33.15
14. Secret Glamour (12) J: Jye Mcneil (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4.44.44

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

(6) Ocean’s Thirteen had no luck last start at The Valley. I was surprised they didn’t try to lead from barrier 2 and ended up back on the fence, never really getting out. She was well backed from $9-6 there and should be ready to peak here 3rd up.

(13) Americain Angel was given a freshen and ran well back to 1400m last start. She’s going to have to get a long way back though and can find it hard to win.

(14) Secret Glamour takes on the older horses after hitting the line well over 1400m last start. Don’t think that 3yo form is great and she likely gets back too.

(3) Intellective should be fitter and appreciate the mile.

Tip: (6) Ocean’s Thirteen- $21.00/5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Ocean’s Thirteen

205632

Race 6

Take It To The Neds Level-Bm84 (2000m)
3:50pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Take It To The Neds Level-Bm84 (2000m)
3:50pm (AEDT)

1. Portland Jimmy (3) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (59.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
415153
2. Think We're Due (12) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (58kg) T: Andrew Noblet
121210.4
3. El Misk (8) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: Archie Alexander
676159
4. Daqiansweet Junior (9) J: Damian Lane (56.5kg) T: P Stokes
6.56.56.6
5. Lyrical Lad (11) J: Zac Spain (56.5kg) T: P Stokes
33.13.15
6. Look Closely (5) J: Ms Alana Kelly (56kg) T: J P Salanitri
818171
7. Our Mantra (2) J: Matthew Cartwright (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
616145
8. Takumi (13) J: Michael Poy (54.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell
181819.2
9. The Regiment (7) J: Jarrod Fry (54.5kg) T: J F Moloney
212620
10. Nerve Not Verve (1) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: M D Moroney
313423
11. Laundy (10) J: Josh Richards (54kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
5.55.55.5
12. Midas Prince (4) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: P G Moody
343425
13. The Awesome Son (6) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: Julius Sandhu
555.4

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

Found this tricky. (5) Lyrical Lad is flying this prep and went from heavy to dry no problems last start, beating subsequent Flemington winner High ‘n’ Dry. He has to extend to 2000m now but I can’t see that being a huge issue.

(13) The Awesome Son went from wet to dry last start at Pakenham and was too strong again, coming from a long way back to knock off Kissinger. This race isn’t much harder despite a rise in grade and with 54kg he’ll be flying home again.

(4) Daqiansweet Junior next best coming off two consecutive wins.

 

Tip: (13) The Awesome Son- $6.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

205632

Race 7

Neds Lord Stakes (1700m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Neds Lord Stakes (1700m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

1. So Si Bon (4) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
111313.2
2. Hi Stranger (8) J: Damien Thornton (58.5kg) T: S Fliedner
131514.4
3. Hang Man (11) J: Damien Oliver (57.5kg) T: M D Moroney
414139
4. In A Twinkling (12) J: Jarrod Fry (55.5kg) T: L Smith
343435
5. Declares War (10) J: Patrick Moloney (54.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
6. Starelle (9) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54kg) T: D T O'brien
5.55.55.8
7. Winning Partner (2) J: Ms Linda Meech (54kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
665.8
8. Beefeater (1) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (54kg) T: Patrick Payne
126151161
9. Bonvicini (7) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.23.33.05
10. Holbien (6) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: S J Richards
131212.8
11. Good And Proper (3) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: M J Ellerton
141312.8
12. Agreeable (5) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: A & S Freedman
77.56.9

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Another one at odds that I think can run well today is (10) Holbein. He finally led last start when 4th up and fully fit, and went out at a very strong tempo (12L above the all avg benchmark to the 800m). There’s very little pressure on paper and I think he can control this at a big price.

(9) Bonvicini has worked her way into form, running a good 4th in the Matriarch two back before looking a touch unlucky last start here over 1800m. She can get into a good spot midfield and run well again.

(6) Starelle was rock solid in the same race and did narrowly beat Bonvicini home in the Matriarch. No real knocks on her either.

(12) Agreeable gets past a mile for the first time which is interesting. She hit the line well from last in a slowly run race behind Steinem last start but hasn’t seen a fast run race all prep so the extra trip is a query, although she may now be looking for it.

 

Tip: (10) Holbein- $17.00/4.40 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Holbein

205632

Race 8

N Johnstone R/E Christmas Stks (1100m)
5:10pm (AEDT)

Race 8

N Johnstone R/E Christmas Stks (1100m)
5:10pm (AEDT)

1. Away Game (16) J: Jye Mcneil (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
162016.8
2. Ancestry (2) J: Michael Poy (57.5kg) T: P Stokes
263432
3. Sartorial Splendor (17) J: Michael Dee (56.5kg) T: J D Sadler
515149
4. Parsifal (8) J: John Allen (56kg) T: Will Clarken
201820.5
5. Grandview Avenue (1) J: Zac Spain (55.5kg) T: K M Elford
126151161
6. Morrissy (10) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (55.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
101101101
7. Prezado (11) J: Daniel Moor (54.5kg) T: Simon Zahra
126151141
8. Streetcar Stranger (18) J: Daniel Moor (54.5kg) T: David Jolly
9. Munitions (5) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: James Cummings
313126.5
10. Outlaws Revenge (9) J: Dom Tourneur (54kg) T: Ryan Balfour
141716
11. Shamino (14) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (54kg) T: P Stokes
151151131
12. Curran (6) J: Matthew Cartwright (54kg) T: Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor
131312.8
13. Rainbiel (13) J: Ms Linda Meech (54kg) T: Anthony Chibnall
262624.5
14. Vainstream (15) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: John Pascoe
126101121
15. Excess Funds (4) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh
10181101
16. Broadwayandfourth (12) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (54kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
17. Marabi (7) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1.351.351.32
18. Ginger Jones (3) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: Andrew Noblet

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 5:12pm (AEDT)

Can’t wait to see undefeated mare (17) Marabi again who should justify the short quote. She was breathtaking on resumption, bolting in by 7 lengths over a strong bm70 field. She’s been in relatively slowly run races all her career, so it’ll be interesting to see how she goes in what is almost guaranteed to be a very fast tempo.

(2) Ancestry is an interesting one. We know his level of talent is very good, but he hasn’t been able to show it in a while. He’s typically better with a run under his belt but I thought his two jumpouts were very good- able to sit off the leader and cruise past them. He may be crossed from barrier 2.

(10) Outlaws Revenge is flying in SA and this looks a nice race for him. He should be able to get a nice camp midfield off a hot tempo.

(12) Curran wasn’t suited last start dropping back to 1000m in a good race. His work late and through the line was very good, and I’m convinced 1100m is his trip. His 3rd to Malkovich in the Caulfield Sprint is a good form reference for this.

Marabi very hard to beat but the tempo will be on and a good test for her. Ancestry piques my interest at big odds, and Curran should run well.

Tip: (2) Ancestry- $26.00/4.80 at TAB

Also Backing: (12) Curran- $17.00/3.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Ancestry, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Curran

205632

Race 9

Allan Wicks (Bm78) (1400m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Allan Wicks (Bm78) (1400m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

1. Heavenly Emperor (6) J: Ethan Brown (62kg) T: S V Brown
9181101
2. Sig Positano (2) J: John Allen (59.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
76.57.6
3. Do You Reckon (10) J: Josh Richards (59kg) T: Julius Sandhu
161514.4
4. Excelida (12) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
6.576.4
5. Zoltan (4) J: Ms Linda Meech (58kg) T: Symon Wilde
111212.2
6. Eluding (9) J: Luke Currie (57.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
6.56.56.9
7. Zero Doubt (5) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: Clayton Douglas
313128.5
8. Blazerro (13) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: P Stokes
8.59.58
9. Alpha Sky (1) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (55.5kg) T: S V Brown
151151161
10. Fiery Red (7) J: Craig Newitt (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
313132
11. Mark Of The Man (14) J: Michael Poy (55.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell
12. Stay Gold (3) J: Damian Lane (55.5kg) T: D T O'brien
131413.4
13. Galactic Fury (16) J: Matthew Cartwright (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
14. Zac De Boss (15) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: Simon Zahra
6.56.55.6
15. Drop The Mic (11) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: Alisa Hinch
263128
16. Paperboy (8) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: J W Price
998.7

Odds Last Updated: December 26, 2021, 5:52pm (AEDT)

Near impossible finish- go wide in the quaddie. (5) Zoltan has been well backed early for his Australian debut. He finished midfield in a Group 2 in NZ last start, ahead of recent Randwick winner Lightning Jack which is good enough form to be competitive here.

(6) Eluding was just grabbed late last start at Flemington and gets Currie on replacing the apprentice. The draw looks a bit sticky at the 1400m start.

(3) Do You Reckon will need to get across cheaply and early but if so he can run well at a price. He’s been beaten by Lighthouse his last two but has been flattered by leading at slow tempos, which I doubt he finds here.

(2) Sig Positano is racing very well this prep and will just need luck from barrier 2 to be in the finish again.

Tip: (5) Zoltan- $12.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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