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Flemington Racing Tips: 2020 Stakes Day

The VRC Sprint Classic and Mackinnon Stakes headline the final day of the Flemington carnival and Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below!

It’s the final day of the Flemington carnival, headlined by the Group 1 VRC Sprint Classic and the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes!

It’s been a long week but we’ve come out on top to date, and Tim Geers will be looking to finish the carnival with a wet sail as he previews the Stakes Day meeting below!

The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the 7m position.

Best Bet: Race 5 – (2) Pondus

Best Value: Race 4 – (9) Sikorsky

0

Race 1

Special Kids Pin & Win (Bm80) (2000m)
12:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Special Kids Pin & Win (Bm80) (2000m)
12:25pm (AEDT)

1. Almania (11) J: Hugh Bowman (61kg) T: K A Lees
666.65
2. Barade (2) J: Declan Bates (60.5kg) T: Archie Alexander
232626.523
3. Hunboshi (13) J: Billy Egan (60kg) T: Luke Oliver
716710161
4. Somerset Maugham (10) J: Ben Melham (60kg) T: D T O'brien
5.555.15.5
5. Vegas Knight (14) J: Jordan Childs (60kg) T: C W Little
7.57.578
6. Royal Order (8) J: Jye Mcneil (58.5kg) T: M C Kent
131213.210
7. Scottish Dancer (6) J: John Allen (58.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
99.58.49.5
8. Meteor Light (17) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: Shawn Mathrick
9. Ghodeleine (4) J: Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: Andrew Noblet
141415.211
10. Kissinger (9) J: Michael Rodd (57.5kg) T: L Smith
666.66
11. Tolemac (16) J: Ben Allen (57.5kg) T: F G Finnegan
27312734
12. Wentwood (12) J: Luke Nolen (57.5kg) T: Maddie Raymond
13. Excelman (3) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: Richard Laming
10109.211
14. Doroza (7) J: Glen Boss (55kg) T: Matthew Cumani
313428.526
15. Wild Vitality (15) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: Rodney Foster
35413541
16. Pufnstuf (5) J: Teodore Nugent (54kg) T: E W Ewert
17. Yenhaab (1) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: S V Brown
201201241151

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

There’s a few at very good odds to open the card here.

I concede (10) Kissinger is the horse to beat, coming off a dominant win at Warrnambool, but he gets a firm track here and the stable aren’t in the best of form. That win came on his home deck at Warrnambool, so I’ll play around him as he gets to Flemington today.

(5) Vegas Knight is the first at good odds to have something on. He bolted in at Caulfield last start after posting a big lead mid-race. They’ll try similar tactics here but the longer Flemington straight is very different to that of Caulfield. He did beat Irish Flame though, who came out and won again twice since that race. He’s at $8.50.

(6) Royal Order is a great bet at $13. He copped a heavy track first up and then ran 2nd to Serengeti, beaten a nose. Prior to that race, Serengeti beat Kissinger, who is favourite here, yet Royal order is about three times the price. Has won over track and distance before and looks ready to peak third up.

Another at near double figure odds to back is (7) Scottish Dancer, who failed as favourite in that same race as Serengeti and Royal Order last start. He pulled up lame on that occasion so can be forgiven, and his form in his first two starts this prep was good.

(11) Tolemac is a ridiculous price at $34. He ran 3rd to Serengeti and Royal Order last start after sitting three-wide and circling the field mid-race to lead.

Tip: (7) Scottish Dancer $9.00 Sportsbet

Value: (6) Royal Order $13 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Scottish Dancer, 0.5 units WIN Royal Order, 0.25 units WIN Vegas Knight

0

Race 2

The Amanda Elliott (1400m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2

The Amanda Elliott (1400m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

1. Pioneer River (4) J: Jye Mcneil (61kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
99.510.210
2. Deep Speed (3) J: Luke Currie (59kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
5.55.56.14
3. Rock The Ring (1) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
232619.818
4. Tommy Gold (5) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: J A O'shea
2.92.82.752.7
5. Ronniejay (2) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: Richard Laming
202621.519
6. Far Enough (9) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: Dale Short
7. Torbreck (7) J: Luke Nolen (56.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
14151419
8. Shelby Cobra (8) J: Ben Melham (56kg) T: M D Moroney
3.23.33.053.6
9. Allibor (6) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: Symon Wilde
31613919

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Competitive race despite being a small field. (4) Tommy Gold ran 2nd to The Bopper in Listed grade in Sydney first up for trainer John O’Shea, who had two winners here on Oaks day. Bowman jumps on with McDonald suspended, with Hughie riding both winners for O’Shea on Thursday. Should tuck in from barrier 5 and be very hard to hold out in the long straight.

(2) Deep Speed comes here on the quick backup after making it two from two at The Valley eight days ago. It paid to be on speed that night but he did it very comfortably and was green in the straight. Prior to that he sat three-wide the trip on speed when winning on debut in Adelaide. He’ll lead from barrier 3 and provided the wind isn’t terrible, he’ll be the one they all have to run down at $3.95.

(8) Shelby Cobra should be undefeated. He had no luck at all first up at The Valley, but broke his maiden in style at Sale last start. The query is whether that form will measure up to Sydney listed form, and the form out of that first run at The Valley has been pretty ordinary.

(7) Torbeck looks the value at $21.

Tip: (4) Tommy Gold $2.80 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Tommy Gold, 0.5 units WIN Deep Speed

0

Race 3

Network 10 Chatham Stakes (1400m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Network 10 Chatham Stakes (1400m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

1. Reykjavik (2) J: Jye Mcneil (60kg) T: L Smith
777.67.5
2. Haripour (1) J: John Allen (58.5kg) T: Emma Church
3. Harlech (3) J: Ben Melham (58.5kg) T: M D Moroney
172120.512
4. Morrissy (5) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: L & T Corstens
4.854.254.2
5. Riddle Me That (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: M M Laurie
99.510.29
6. Bold Star (4) J: Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: G V Richards
4.855.15
7. Sansom (6) J: Ben Allen (56.5kg) T: P Stokes
555.15.5
8. Morvada (7) J: Zac Spain (55.5kg) T: P W Jolly
5.565.15
9. Fox Hall (8) J: Luke Currie (55kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
211919.426

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Only the eight runners engaged here but it’s a highly competitive affair. (8) Morvada is suited getting back to Flemington today and more importantly, getting back onto firm ground. He was only beaten 2.7L by Wild Planet last start but that was on soft ground, which he’s never won on in his career. Prior to that he was good behind Travimyfriend and Windstorm, and before that he ran 2nd to Sky Punch in Adelaide. He’s going to be in this for a long way.

(6) Bold Star steps up to 1400m for the first time in his career. He’s always been a short-course specialist but he’s raced this preparation like he needs 1400m, so it will be interesting to see if that brings about a win.

(5) Riddle Me That should be included at $12. He won over this track and distance two starts ago before failing on the wet track at Moonee Valley last start. Back onto firmer ground at Flemington will help and at double figure odds, he can go close.

(4) Morrissy and (7) Sansom have obvious claims.

Tip: (8) Morvada $7.50 Bet365

Value: (5) Riddle Me That $12 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Morvada, 0.5 units WIN Riddle Me That

0

Race 4

Nova100 Trophy (Bm90) (1600m)
2:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Nova100 Trophy (Bm90) (1600m)
2:15pm (AEDT)

1. Spanish Steps (14) J: Jamie Mott (62kg) T: D J Mccarthy
151301201151
2. Winning Partner (12) J: Luke Currie (60kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
665.66.5
3. Al Passem (6) J: Michael Rodd (59.5kg) T: K & K Keys
67919371
4. Savvy Oak (16) J: Glen Boss (57.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
711019351
5. Right You Are (7) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
3.23.432.9
6. Mr Money Bags (8) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
7. Power Scheme (2) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
121413.27
8. Rainbow Thief (10) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: M D Moroney
13121216
9. Sikorsky (9) J: Luke Nolen (56kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
12121113
10. Aqueduct (17) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: Michael Hickmott
65.55.26.5
11. Peloton (4) J: Ben Melham (56kg) T: Michael Hickmott
26313023
12. Wings Of Pastrami (5) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: J R Searle
161313.817
13. Beehunter (1) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: J D Sadler
151716.811
14. Starouz (15) J: Jamie Kah (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
15. Firstclass Dreamer (11) J: Brian Higgins (56kg) T: Matthew Brown
16. Boxachocolates (13) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: S V Brown
101201141101
17. Ears The Barman (3) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: P Stokes

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Best value bet of the day comes up here in the form of (9) Sikorsky. He had no luck at all first up at Caulfield when caught three-wide the trip. He also had no luck first up last prep but came out second up and ran very well for 2nd. He then went onto win third up, which was his only start at this track and distance. Both career wins have been at the mile so he looks well-placed today, so long as he can get some luck from barrier 9.

(5) Right You Are looks the obvious horse to beat. He’s got four wins and three placings from seven starts. He’s had two starts at Flemington, resulting in a narrow defeat to Persan (who has just kept on winning) and a win over this track and distance. He resumes with the concussion plates on today which is a small query but if he comes back how he left off, he looks the horse they all have to beat.

(2) Winning Partner next best.

Tip: (5) Right You Are $3.40 Unibet

Value: (9) Sikorsky $14 Unibet

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Right You Are, 1 unit WIN Sikorsky

0

Race 5

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

1. Le Don De Vie (12) J: Ben Melham (59kg) T: A & S Freedman
554.654.4
2. Pondus (9) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: Joseph O'brien
1.952.051.92
3. Shared Ambition (10) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
8.58.5810
4. Chapada (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: M D Moroney
161817.811
5. Haky (7) J: Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: Archie Alexander
192121.518
6. True Self (2) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: W P Mullins
13141510
7. Future Score (6) J: Craig Williams (56.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
8. Creedence (3) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani
31343526
9. Gallic Chieftain (8) J: John Allen (56kg) T: Archie Alexander
18181726
10. Attorney (11) J: Jye Mcneil (55.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
11. Scarlet Dream (1) J: Luke Currie (55kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
312627.526
12. Lunar Flare (5) J: Jordan Childs (55kg) T: G M Begg
911518581

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Expecting (2) Pondus to improve off his enormous first up run in the Bendigo Cup, and he should be exceptionally hard to beat. He drew barrier 15 and carried 59kg in that race, copped a check from a horse in front of him which broke down, had to come widest on the turn and still ran home strongly to be beaten a nose. It was a huge run under the circumstances. He’s undefeated second up from a break, will relish the step up to 2600m, gets D Oliver on board for Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien, and he looks the best bet of the day.

(1) Le Don De Vie comes through an arguably stronger form race in the Geelong Cup. He led and was brave to be beaten 0.2L by Steel Prince. He’ll lead again from barrier 12 and will be awfully hard to get past.

(4) Chapada looms as the value at $12 after a midfield finish in the Caulfield Cup. His two runs prior to that were very good.

Tip: (2) Pondus $2.30 TAB

Betting strategy: 4 units WIN Pondus, 1 unit WIN Le Don De Vie

0

Race 6

Darley Sprint Classic (1200m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Darley Sprint Classic (1200m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

1. Santa Ana Lane (7) J: Ben Melham (58.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
121210.810
2. Nature Strip (9) J: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
3.83.93.654.4
3. Bivouac (6) J: Glen Boss (58.5kg) T: James Cummings
3.53.33.552.8
4. Hey Doc (3) J: Luke Currie (58.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
192121.512
5. Graff (1) J: John Allen (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien
161915.823
6. Zoutori (4) J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
192117.811
7. Standout (8) J: Craig Williams (58.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
31313134
8. Tofane (2) J: Jye Mcneil (56.5kg) T: M D Moroney
181916.621
9. Libertini (5) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: A J Cummings
4.64.84.96.5
10. Fabergino (10) J: Jordan Childs (56.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
232626.521

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

CLICK HERE for Trent Crebbin’s runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 VRC Sprint Classic!

0

Race 7

Tab Matriarch Stakes (2000m)
4:15pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Tab Matriarch Stakes (2000m)
4:15pm (AEDT)

1. Princess Jenni (13) J: Jye Mcneil (59.5kg) T: D R Brideoake
2. Toffee Tongue (15) J: Ben Melham (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
887.77
3. Vanna Girl (5) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
656.46.5
4. Greysful Glamour (1) J: Luke Currie (57.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
161717.211
5. Bonvicini (7) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
31343521
6. Paradee (8) J: Damien Oliver (57.5kg) T: D T O'brien
111211.211
7. In Good Health (3) J: Luke Nolen (56.5kg) T: P G Moody
131311.812
8. Aristia (2) J: Jamie Kah (55kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
181916.417
9. Danzdanzdance (6) J: Glen Boss (55kg) T: D Binaisse
10. She's Ideel (14) J: Daniel Stackhouse (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
896.97.5
11. One More Try (10) J: Craig Williams (55kg) T: Matthew Cumani
35514019
12. Affair To Remember (11) J: Michael Poy (55kg) T: Dan O'sullivan
77.56.310
13. Chaillot (4) J: Declan Bates (55kg) T: Archie Alexander
4.244.34.8
14. Imelda Mary (9) J: Michael Walker (55kg) T: Brett Scott
201201221101
15. Nerve Not Verve (12) J: Michael Dee (55kg) T: M D Moroney
126301191101

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

The Matriarch looks wide-open.

(13) Chaillot is short enough but does appear hard to beat after a sound run in the G1 Empire Rose Stakes last weekend. She’s only lightly-raced but has plenty of ability. The query is the step up to 2000m but she can win without surprising.

(6) Paradee looks ready to win. She’s had three runs back from a spell now and she finished off hard at Moonee Valley last start. She will prefer getting back onto firmer ground today and her only start at Flemington was a 2L win. Up to 2000m now, D Oliver sticks for Danny O’Brien and she looks a good each way chance.

(4) Greysful Glamour can improve sharply back onto firmer ground. She ran in that same race as Paradee last start but hates wet ground. Prior to that she ran very well behind Emeralds at Randwick on good ground. Leads from barrier 1 and should take plenty of catching.

(11) One More Try is a blowout chance, while (2) Toffee Tongue and (3) Vanna Girl have obvious claims.

Tip: (6) Paradee $12 Sportsbet

Danger: (4) Greysful Glamour $11 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: No bet

0

Race 8

Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes (2000m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes (2000m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Harlem (1) J: Craig Williams (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
232626.521
2. Fifty Stars (8) J: John Allen (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
87.57.48.5
3. Mr Quickie (3) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: P Stokes
161815.213
4. Mirage Dancer (7) J: Michael Dee (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
41314951
5. Mugatoo (9) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: K A Lees
6. Skyward (4) J: Glen Boss (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
343124.526
7. Dalasan (2) J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: L Macdonald & A Gluyas
121313.216
8. Melody Belle (6) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: J W Richards
3.93.83.655
9. Arcadia Queen (5) J: Luke Currie (57kg) T: G & A Williams
2.352.452.452.7
10. Shout The Bar (10) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
11141113

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

CLICK HERE for Trent Crebbin’s runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes!

0

Race 9

Seppelt Drumborg Grand (Bm80) (1100m)
5:45pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Seppelt Drumborg Grand (Bm80) (1100m)
5:45pm (AEDT)

1. Grandview Avenue (15) J: Teodore Nugent (62.5kg) T: Simon Ryan
201917.826
2. Wise Hero (6) J: Lachlan King (62.5kg) T: J W Price
51616341
3. Express Pass (11) J: Rhys Mcleod (62kg) T: Nick Ryan
4. Final Man (2) J: Ben Allen (60kg) T: N J Harnett
51616341
5. Can't Be Done (4) J: Damien Oliver (59.5kg) T: D T O'brien
121313.28
6. I'm Telling Ya (12) J: Michael Dee (59.5kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
151414.218
7. Blood Oath (7) J: Michael Rodd (59kg) T: E Jusufovic
41414326
8. Leiter (13) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: T J Hughes Jnr
181715.821
9. Messerschmitt (3) J: Ben Melham (59kg) T: A & S Freedman
212119.423
10. Reward With Return (5) J: Liam Riordan (59kg) T: Nathan Hobson
10110111171
11. Meteorite (10) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
3.843.84.8
12. Wicklow Town (20) J: John Allen (58kg) T: Julie Scott
343127.534
13. Mariamia (16) J: Billy Egan (57.5kg) T: Shane Stockdale
151616.821
14. Queen Annabel (17) J: Craig Williams (57.5kg) T: Ms R Kelly
27313423
15. Plaquette (8) J: Jamie Kah (57kg) T: James Cummings
33.12.93.9
16. Llessur (19) J: Jordan Childs (55kg) T: Scott Cameron
161615.226
17. The Gauch (1) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
18. Rock Prophet (14) J: Lewis German (57.5kg) T: R J Besanko
19. Star Surprise (18) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57kg) T: M D Moroney
20. Rock Tycoon (9) J: Dean Yendall (57kg) T: Nathan Hobson

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Nothing quite like a 16-runner BM80 down the straight to round off the quaddie and the carnival! Leave me out of this.

(5) Can’t Be Done should be watched closely first up for Oliver and O’Brien. This horse ran 2nd to Garner down the straight first up last prep, with Hawker Hurricane back in 3rd. She’s won two from three at the distance and looks to have been set for this fresh.

(11) Meteorite scorched the turf first up, breaking the track record. He followed that up with another strong win at Sale on the heavy ground. This is his first go down the straight which is always a slight query but he’ll be the one to run down.

(13) Mariamia can be included at huge odds. She has a good record at this track and distance.

(17) Gauch is always around the mark and has to be included.

(2) Wise Hero was a good horse once upon a time and resumed with a win at Kilmore first up. Throw him in at $61.

Tip: (5) Can’t Be Done $8.50 Unibet

Betting strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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