Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, November 7th

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Pretty gross race to start the day with the unknowns around weather and this being a staying race with no pace whatsoever on paper. I am staying with the favourite (3) Parry Sound, I know surprise, surprise but hear me out here. He is going for his third win on the trot are a solid win on the soft going in a midweek race at Kensington over the 2400m. He did not beat a lot that day but the way he did it was good enough for me and showed enough to suggest a chance to tackle Saturday grade. Although he did fade a touch late, he did make a long-sustained run which began at the 800m mark. Probably not a race I want to play in.

(1) Approach Discreet is on the quick back-up after his solid third placing behind Archanna and Navy Cross. I think he has done enough to show that he can handle the wet conditions but is yet to win beyond 1800m which does look the only concern.

(4) He Runs Away is coming back from Brisbane, and how often do we see Waller runners come back from up north and make others look silly. The form on the soft and heavy is mediocre but you can’t deny that he can handle the distance and brings in winning form.

(2) Shakespear’sgalley next best.

Top Pick: (3) Parry Sound $3.90 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

I really like the set up of (7) Lucky Banner here, having her first go at 1500m. It’s hard to believe she is just a three-year-old filly because of how well she has been racing against the older horses. She was brilliant three back at Scone where she saluted narrowly and then the following start at Muswellbrook, she struggled to make ground against rival (4) Free Rider, who she meets 2.5kg better for the massive defeat. Her last start at Newcastle was one to behold, where she looked no chance of winning. She chased down the well back Saturn as she ran nicely through the line over 1350m. One thing that holds her in good stead, he best three runs rating wise are on soft tracks, do with it what you will at each way odds.

(14) Diorissima was the best thing beaten at Hawkesbury last start and never got a crack at them running 1.1 lengths in fourth. She is unknown in the wet but if she handles it with no weight, she will be right there in the finish. I’ll play a small each way bet on her also.

(1) Wichita Warrior is the class of this field and must lob 59.5kg from a horror draw. This bloke has shown in the past that the wet is no issues though did fail on it when coming into town for a Highway. Though you must respect the three wins on wet tracks and will just need luck to be competitive.

(4) Free Rider next best.

Top Pick: (7) Lucky Banner $11.00 E/W Sportsbet

Also Playing: (14) Diorissima $15.00 E/W Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This race is full of horses that are a bunch of let downs and any of them can show up and win, but which one will turn up? I am with (2) Dancing Gidget with no confidence here. She is very fit and, in the past, has shown she can handle the wet when she wants to and can run some good time. The two key changes for her here are the addition of apprentice Thomas Stockdale, who will give her a nice 2kg claim and the fact she is in BM78 quality on a wet track. She is drawn a touch sticky, but the figures do not lie, and her speed ratings are quite good despite not winning.

(4) Petronius has let me down all three times this preparation, so it will not surprise me if he gets up now that I am off him. The query for him is the really wet track and the step up to 1500m leaves me scratching my head, especially considering his last run was one of his worse figures in his career. On a positive if he handles the going, the map suits him.

(5) Bigbadroy is just one who runs well when he wants to. Won’t surprise me if he runs a hole in this field.

(7) Cyber Intervention is one to put in the exotics.

Top Pick: (2) Dancing Gidget $4.80 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

(9) Total Recall is a nice up and coming stayer and I think with a better draw would start odds-on here. I know he didn’t beat a lot last start, but he did beat them over 2200m carrying a mighty 63.5kg and winning by over 8.8 lengths. He has decent form over the wet and his form beyond 1900 is brilliant. The second placing behind Ocean Waltzer two back is good enough to make light work of them here, but that barrier poses a little bit of an issue. I assume Tommy Berry will go forward and either lead of sit just behind them, either way, as long as he doesn’t do a lot of work early from there, he will be hard to beat.

(1) Express Courier is 2/2 over 2000m and 2/3 on heavy going including one placing. He is drawn ideally and gets a 2kg claim of Tom Sherry, as long as he gets even luck, he won’t be far away.

(7) Fast Talking is talented and shown he can mix it with the city class. His form on the wet is okay and the distance poses no issues. Just needs luck from barrier 8.

(6) Bajan Gold is next best.

Top Pick: (9) Total Recall $3.90 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

(2) Stockman is on the quick back-up here and that run was brilliant but was just one-upped by Elaborate. Joe Pride was only going to run him if it was wet, which he got his wish. He will get a torn-up ground by this race and with a tiny bit of rain forecast, he will be rubbing his hands together with glee. The step up to 1800m is a massive tick and third-up, he will be nearing peak fitness. From the nice draw, Sam Clipperton should get into the nice position and really motor late in the piece.

(9) Le Gai Soleil was good first-up coming from midfield with a big weight to run over the top of the opposition. She is the main rival to (2) Stockman though she has drawn poorly. Tommy Berry has the ride once again and she should show good improvement here second-up. I’m confident if we bet on both (2) Stockman and her, we will collect.

(3) Vegas Jewel ran home really well behind Icebath and we know how well she went. Definitely a place chance.

(12) Luvoir is the next best.

Top Pick: (2) Stockman $2.90 Unibet

Also Playing: (9) Le Gai Soleil $5.60 Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

I am going with the Melbourne visitor in (8) Sneaky Five here. She was very solid at The Valley over the 1000m winning Inglis Banner in what was a nice speed rating on the soft 7. She is going to get a wet track once again and the ideal draw will put her in a good spot. There is no doubt all her rivals will improve just like she will, but I loved the speed she showed on the wet ground.

(2) Captivant is the one to beat and I will make sure he goes around with some of my money. If this was a good track I am sure he would be much shorter but the unknown is of course the wet and the fact he will get back.

(10) Mura Mura is the other Snowden runner who is going to improve nicely into this one. Will come on from the first-up placing

(9) Cerda next best.

Top Pick: (8) Sneaky Five $5.60 Sportsbetting

Also Playing: (2) Captivant $3.50 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 8, 2020, 12:01am (AEDT)

Happy to back (10) Wandabaa to turn the tables on rival (3) Positive Peace despite the 3kg swing of the weights against her. She come from the second half of the field last start to narrowly miss against (3) Positive Peace and I don’t think they will sit that far back again this time around. Robbie Dolan takes the ride and with a nice draw of barrier 4, she should be able to stalk the leaders throughout the entirety of the race. Although she hasn’t won at 1400m, she has been competitive, and the wet track brings her in further.

(2) Madam Rouge is no stranger to the tough races, and she gets a nice weight and a decent barrier here. There is predicted pace in the race and so long as she is within distance, she will be right in the finish.

(3) Positive Peace is looking to go back to back but must come from a bad barrier with pace up with her. This will test her out.

(12) Tricky Gal next for the exotics

Top Pick: (10) Wandabaa $5.50 Unibet

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Frosty Rocks is returning from a let-up and from the ideal draw and addition of Tom Sherry with his 2kg claim, there is definite intent there. 6 of the 11 runners are first-up whilst rival (11) Promotions is 50/50 on the wet, so expect Sherry to put the handle bars down and let the Your Song gelding free run throughout this race, which is the best way to ride him. Even with 59kg, he is going to be hard to catch on the wet.

(11) Promotions is the main rival and where they decide to go from barrier 6 is really going to make or break the race. If they go forward and sit behind (1) Frosty Rocks, I believe that is their main chance to get victory.

(2) Oxford Tycoon isn’t hopeless on wet ground and comes back in grade.

(12) Greek Hero next best for the exotics.

Top Pick: (1) Frosty Rocks $3.50 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Another week where the last race on the card is a ‘take your money out and walk away’ sort of race. (12) Macushla is who I will have on top here, bringing a different form line in from New Zealand. She has run well in the past on rain affected going and is drawn to have an effect, especially late in the day. She will sit just off the leaders before peeling off them. Let’s just hope the form stands up at each way odds.

(13) Ruby Tuesday has some nice speed figures coming into this on the wet ground and with even luck from the wide draw, could be one for your Quaddie legs.

(14) Turnstyle has decent wet stats and come back strongly first-up to finish third. Don’t rule her out with the low weight.

(7) Think Free next best.

Top Pick: (12) Macushla $8.10 Sportsbetting