Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, January 9th

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

(11) Shame For Fame won a jumpout nicely leading into her debut and gets Jamie Kah on. She looks the more professional of the two Price/Kent horses and can win.

 

(7) Strike Eagle is an interesting runner. It’s not often Damian Lane rides for the McEvoy stable which piques my interest, and he has jumped out down the straight.

 

(4) Chameleon Choice doesn’t have the most fashionable jockey/trainer combo, especially for 2yo’s, but it’s interesting Matthew Smith brings him down to Melbourne for his debut. He’s looked fast in some Sydney trials, and did run 2^nd to what could be a pretty smart horse in Remarque in a recent Rosehill trial.

 

Leaning Chameleon Choice’s way in the first, but not overly confident.

 

Tip: (4) Chameleon Choice $5.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Good little race. (6) Siren Rock was good on debut, coming from a fair way back to run 2^nd to Vespertine, who was good at Caulfield last week when wide. She went to Warrnambool and bolted in by 3.8L. Kah takes the ride and with further improvement she’ll be hard to beat.

 

(1) Zac De Boss is on the quick backup from last week. He was impressive winning over 1400m, and to take a line, his 1400m race was faster overall and he ran quicker final sectionals than Vespertine on the same day.

 

(3) Still Be Friends bolted in last start at Werribee when leading all the way. This is tougher and his run here was solid without being amazing.

 

Very tough to split the top two in the market. If Zac De Boss races a bit flat on the backup, Siren Rock will be very tough to beat. Damien Thornton has elected to stay with Zac De Boss, but that just means we get a positive jockey change with Kah jumping on. I think Siren Rock will drift a bit and can be backed.

 

Tip: (6) Siren Rock $3.60 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Siren Rock

 

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Concede (4) White Hibiscus is the horse to beat here, but she looks very short at around $2.00. She had the race run to suit last start and was strong late but stays at the 1600m and looks to potentially strike a slower run race, where she may be buried nearer the inside.

 

(11) Island Joy is an interesting runner. She started $31 and ran 8^th of 9 last week, but never really got a crack at them, having been held up for most of the straight. The 1600m is the main query with her.

 

(1) Ocean’s Thirteen looks to control the race, either leading or sitting outside. She was a good run last start at this T/D in a harder race, just getting outsprinted late by a few handy mares. She has to carry the weight but will give herself every chance and will run a strong mile.

 

(2) Lady D’oro was a good run last start behind Hasstobegood who ran out of her skin. The 1600m is a query with her as well, but she should settle closer from the inside draw.

 

Keep coming back to Ocean’s Thirteen because she ticks a lot of boxes. White Hibiscus could be back and buried, and the other mares in form have distance or map queries.

 

Tip: (1) Ocean’s Thirteen $5.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Ocean’s Thirteen

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Tough race, because (1) Saccharo looks the obvious horse ready to win, but he just keeps getting too far back to impact. He was the fastest last 600/400m of the race last start over 1400m, and the step up to 1600m looks to suit (despite no placings from 5 attempts as a younger horse). He’s still stuck on one career win, which can happen with such a poor racing pattern, and from the wide gate I can’t see any scenario where he’s not in the final third.

 

(2) Westbrook Park has had 5 weeks between runs after racing 3 wide no cover at Pakenham and finishing 8^th behind Serengeti and Astraeus. The run before that, again behind Astraeus, was sound.

 

The race drops off a bit there, but (3) Hunamosa is perhaps a touch of overs. Two starts ago he started $3.70 at Kyneton, carried 62kg (and Billy Egan) and ran 2^nd to (8) Fournaise, who was the beneficiary of a John Allen special, which basically won him the race. Hunamosa then raced at this T/D on New Year’s Day and was beaten 3.8L by Fundraiser, which is strong form. He gets the 3kg claim, effectively meeting Fournaise 1kg better, and has come up as much as $31 here.

 

 (5) Il Divo hasn’t had much luck in his last two, but this is a tougher race, and the draw could be a bit tricky.

 

With Saccharo a low percentage play once again, especially as favourite, and Westbrook Park coming off a 5 week break, Hunamosa maps well and can run a race at a big price.

 

Tip: (3) Hunamosa $31.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 0.25 units E/W Hunamosa

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(2) Zoushine was a dominant winner last start at Caulfield, winning by 2.3L. She jumps in weight but had the strong SP there and will be hard to beat again.

 

Of the horses behind her, (14) Night Of Delight looks the value. She got back to 2^nd last on the inside and was in an awkward spot around the turn, whereas the winner had clear air the entire. She ran nearly identical 600/400/200m splits as the winner, meets her 3kg better, and goes Thornton to Kah which in my humble opinion is worth at least a length. At $21, she’s backable.

 

(8) Real Feeling started $2 last start but was no match for the resuming (4) Malicorne, who started $7.50. The favourite had every chance but couldn’t bridge the 2.5L margin. I think the Zoushine race is the right form for this, so I’ll be against both, but it’ll be interesting to see how the SP vs margin stacks up.

 

Tip: (2) Zoushine $4.80 Sportsbet

Value: (14) Night Of Delight $21.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Zoushine, 0.5 units WIN Night Of Delight

 

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

This looks (3) Mosh Music’s race. She was very good late first up over 1400m behind The Astrologist, and got too far back last start at Caulfield, with a ‘patient’ ride perhaps costing her the win. She ended up last and having to come the widest, whereas the winner got moving earlier, saved ground and got the split. Mosh Music ran 7 metres more and gets a 1.5kg weight swing. Third up last prep she probably should’ve won the group 3 JRA Cup, putting in a huge run from the back.

 

Beating her last start was (4) Defibrillate, who was given a beautiful ride by Tahlia Hope. He started $31 there and the step up to 2000m will suit. He’s done nothing wrong and will run well again, but with Egan going on from the wide gate I expect he’ll have to try and do what Mosh Music did last start.

 

I can’t see much else from that Lord Stakes turning the tables, with (12) Influential Girl bringing the different form. She was a huge run last start at Caulfield, settling last from a wide gate and rocketing home to miss by a head. Her win two back was strong, and her run behind Tralee Rose three back suddenly looks very good form. She draws much better today, gets in with 52kg after the claim and looks the danger at double figures.

 

Tip: (3) Mosh Music $3.90 Sportsbet

Value: (12) Influential Girl $14.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Mosh Music, 0.5 units WIN Influential Girl

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Interesting race, with horses coming from different form, having been weighted accordingly. (7) Riding The Wave somehow got the bob in last start down the straight, with 2.5L back to 3^rd. He’s been crying out for 1400m and gets that here, with a handy 4.5kg weight drop. He maps for a suck run midfield and can win again.

 

(1) Blazejowski finally gets to his best T/D and is coming off a good run last start behind Pandemic. He has a group 3 win over Age Of Chivalry here and is coming off a similar set up- 2^nd up off a small let up.

 

(3) Vassilator is another that loves the Flemington 1400m. He was a big winner last start and with a 50% winning strike rate at the T/D, he’s hard to knock.

 

(2) Brave Song was just as good, if not better run as Blazejowski last start. He doesn’t really have any form at 1400m, and barrier one could be tricky, but he’s a chance again.

 

(10) Viral drops 8kg in weight and gets J Kah on. The horse is going very well without winning this prep, and it wouldn’t shock at all to see Kah get the best out of him.

 

At the odds, I’m siding with Blazejowski here. If Riding The Wave gets out a bit, I’ll likely save.

 

Tip: (1) Blazejowski $9.50 Bet365

Saver: (7) Riding The Wave $3.40 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Blazejowski, 0.5 units WIN Riding The Wave

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

(10) Garimpeiro looks ideally placed here, third up at 1800m on the quick backup. He was sound first up but was very good last week when staying at 1400m, powering home from near last to run 4^th, beaten 1.45L by Rule The World. This is definitely no harder, and he’s been crying out for 1800m. With any luck from barrier 4, which should see him settle a few pairs closer, he’s going to be very hard to beat.

 

(13) Tycoon Bec is hard to knock, having won 2 from 2. Not sure she beat much last start at The Valley, and the margin was only 0.8L, but she did it fairly comfortably. She’ll go forward and be the one to run down.

 

(12) Pres De Toi was given a shocker last start, never seeing clear air when beaten 7 lengths. She gets a huge jockey change, with Lane replacing Hope. She steps out of mare’s grade and draws the carpark which will make things tough, but she’s going much better than the form guide would suggest. I just thought she’d be missed by the market a bit more and come up $17-21, not $9.50.

 

(4) High ‘n’ Dry is going really well this prep and was only 2^nd up last start when winning nicely.

 

Pretty keen on Garimpeiro here, the $5.00 looks a good bet.

 

Tip: (10) Garimpeiro $5.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Garimpeiro

 

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Happy to be with (4) China Affair in the last. She ran very well first up over 1000m and should’ve finished closer to Sword Of Mercy, with Olly finding a bit of traffic. That looks the right form for this, with Sword Of Mercy winning impressively at Caulfield since. The only query is 1100m, because all three career wins have come at the 1000m, and he’s failed beyond that. To counter that, he’s in career best form, gets D Lane, and races down the straight again which can be very different to a traditional sprint race. Off last run I’m surprised he’s $9 in early betting.

 

(5) Ididitforlove is flying, having won nicely first up before stepping up in grade against the boys and running a narrow 3^rd to Hidden Legend. Tahlia Hope has ridden her well this prep, but Campbell Rawiller does look a positive jockey change.

 

(3) Wilmot Pass is a horse I have plenty of time for. He’s probably better over 1200m, but did hit the line strongly for 4^th in a stronger race (admittedly where they went very fast) over 1000m first up last prep.

 

(15) That Girl was a touch unlucky last start but wasn’t travelling well in my opinion. Not sure what to make of the run in the same race as Ididitforlove- she did start $3 favourite which should be respected, but perhaps she’s looking for further now.

 

Tip: (4) China Affair $9.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN China Affair