Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, June 19th

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 11:46am (AEDT)

Tough 2yo race. (7) Somewatt Fabulous was too strong at doubles figures in debut in SA, sitting handy and winning quite well. She is $2.20 at Murray Bridge, not sure where she heads. Can’t imagine 1400m being an issue and gets D Lane.

(8) Secret Glamour is the only other horse to have won a race in the field and did so nicely at Cranbourne on debut. Draws well and is another that looks suited up in trip.

(2) Bon Vivant has jumped out well and gets Olly on. I’d expect they go back from the wide gate which may be the issue. He’d be my pick of the debutants and the son of Golden Horn should be hitting the line well.

 

Tip: (7) Somewatt Fabulous- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Somewatt Fabulous

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 12:22pm (AEDT)

(2) South Pacific is the horse to beat. He hasn’t won in forever, and never in Australia, but his recent form has been good. His run two back behind Mohican Heights running the 2nd fastest last 600/200m of the race, 0.4L off Yonkers reads well, and the run in the Warrnambool Cup was a clear forgive. He got into a bumping duel with Heart Of Puissance and should’ve finished closer. Kah going on is obviously a huge positive, he draws well, likes soft ground and should be going very close.

(6) Master Chum was a great run for us at huge odds last start, getting into 3rd late. I’ve got no worries with him at 2540m, although he is only 4th up going 1600/2000/2540m. Drops 4kg in weight and gets D Lane, but he was $51 last start and has come into $4.60 here which is hard to stomach.

(5) Fanciful Toff has changed stables and at his best would be competitive but his last run was awful, pulling up with throat issues at his last two which has to be a query.

(10) Vividredsky will just keep plugging away and likely run top 4 again. Don’t think he’s classy enough to win unless a few really don’t show up.

Tip: (2) South Pacific- $3.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN South Pacific

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

One of the hardest races of the day. (1) Express Pass went so close last week behind Zipping Boy which reads well but I would’ve much preferred him at 1100m. He also rises 8.5kg in the weights, but does race well down the straight.

(4) Hidden Legend is 1200m back to 1000m and I’m not sure what his best distance is. It could be 1100m but he did win 2nd up last prep.

(9) Modear finally got a win last start over 1100m and stays down in the weights which really suits her. She’s probably another better suited at 1100m.

(12) High Risk was solid first up and is a horse suited at 1000m. She started $8 to Hidden Legend’s $5 when they met at 1000m at Cranbourne last year, Hidden Legend finishing 0.5L in front of High Risk. High Risk meets him 3.5kg better at the weights and likes soft tracks, it’s just whether she’s actually good enough at this level.

 

Tip: (12) High Risk- $19.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN High Risk

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

Depending on how wet it is, I can be with (5) Parmie to bounce back. I really liked her run first up and was keen to find her 2nd up, but it was too wet for her last week at Sandown. She drops 4kg from last week, gets to her best distance, and I think we’ll be on a soft 6 at worst which should be okay.

(11) Indiana Lily could be the knockout hope. She races well 2nd up with 2 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts, her only failure last prep when very unlucky, and she just had no hope first up at The Bool where Witchfulthinking got an easy lead on a biased track. Her final 400/200m were the fastest of the race, she meets that horse 3kg better, can settle closer from a better gate and I doubt she’ll have much support.

(4) Witchfulthinking will be hard to run down. She had the pattern onside at The Bool but was still dominant and was only run down late by Snickerdoodledandy last start which is strong form. She maps for another easy lead with no other real noted leader in the field and will be in this for a long way.

(10) Runaway Girl can improve up to 1400m.

Backing Parmie unless we get stacks of rain and it’s a 7 or worse, something small on Indiana Lily, and saving Witchfulthinking. Risking Poysed To Rein who could get a long way back.

Tip: (5) Parmie- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (11) Indiana Lily- $34.00 at TAB

Saver: (4) Witchfulthinking- $4.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Parmie, 0.5 units WIN Witchfulthinking 0.25/0.5 units E/W Indiana Lily BSP

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

Good race and keen to see (9) Kurabui step out again. She’s unbeaten in 4 starts and has been very impressive in both wins this prep, the first over 1400m when powering away late, and the latest reeling in La Chevalee with ease under 61kg, with a huge gap back to 3rd. The form out of that race has stacked up with La Chevalee a moral beaten in Sydney and Leale winning on Wednesday. She drops 7kg in the weights, likes soft ground and should be winning again. I do think she’ll drift to $2+ though as the market % comes down, so hold off backing her now.

(8) Degraves is the interesting one. Was keen to be with him last week but he was scratched, perhaps due to the heavy deck first up, even though he handles it fine. Any horse that can finish less than 2L off Armory is talented enough to win nearly any race in Australia, and he gets in with 52.5kg here. The 1600m is ideal first up and he’s the obvious danger, especially if there’s market support. If he starts getting backed at 9am or close to jump, you have to be on.

(5) Kinane is an interesting one, having had such a hype on him as a 3yo and failing to deliver last prep. He’s now with Mick Kent and can start fresh.

(1) Galaxy Raider loves Flemington but will be hard pressed with the big weight to come from a long way back and catch the progressive horses well in.

Backing Kurabui but doing so late, hopefully at $2.20ish. Something on Degraves each way and I think there’s a good chance they run the quinella.

Tip: (9) Kurabui- $1.85 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Degraves- $7.50/2.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Kurabui (BSP), 0.5 units WIN Degraves, 1.5 units PLC Degraves

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Namakwa was too good at double figures last start in a similar race, coming off a synthetic win. Goes up 4kg from last start but these 3yo stayers are very, very average and he’s the horse to beat again.

(3) Literati was disappointing in one of these races, albeit a stronger one won by Horrifying, but has been racing well since on wet tracks. Gets back up to 2000m after two runs at the mile, running well last week behind Sarodec.

(2) Reuber keeps racing consistently but has 2L to turn around on Namakwa from last start, meeting him 3kg better.

One of those three probably win but I don’t have much fancy betting here.

Tip: (3) Literati- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

He goes up in the weights but I see no reason to jump off (1) Curran. He’s absolutely flying and I loved his win last start over 1100m down the straight, really powering away late. He was very well backed late there into $3.90 and started $5, beaten 1.3L by Ayrton the start prior. Draws out, up to 1200m is a positive if anything and I think he’ll be hard to beat again.

If (15) Rights Of Man gets a start (currently 1st emergency) I’ll be having something on him. He’s only had 4 career starts but has shown glimpses of good talent, and 1000m was a touch sharp first up behind Imperial Hilton, who has since bolted in at Adelaide.

I don’t like (3) Snickerdoodledandy back to 1200m after a good win against her own sex at 1400m last start. It was a strong win but she’s better suited at 7 furlongs.

(4) Pioneer River was very good behind Curran first up, meets him 2kg better and gets Melham on so I can understand why he’s popular.

Keen on Curran at $5.00. He’s a great bet again at the price, and something on Rights Of Man if he makes the field.

Tip: (1) Curran- $5.00 at Bet365

Value: (15) Rights Of Man- $17.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units Win Curran, 0.25 units E/W Rights Of Man

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 4:01pm (AEDT)

Open little race and I do think the import (13) Dice Roll is the horse to beat. He was too good in a fast race first up at Caulfield and backed it up at Sandown as the $2.30 favourite, overhauling Yulong January late. He’s had 7 weeks between runs which is the query, but he stays at 1400m and meets that horse 2.5kg better at the weights.

I’m still waiting for (7) Aramayo to get to the 1600m in the Winter Final, but he should’ve gone close to winning last start behind Yulong January and Rubisaki when held up. The query is he’ll get a fair way back from a wide gate but there does look plenty of speed in the race.

(11) Rubisaki loomed to win last start but couldn’t quite do so. She’s really mixing her form, but a wet track at 1400m is her ideal set up and she can bounce back. I don’t love Michelle Payne on though, who hasn’t been riding much lately at all.

(2) Mandela Effect races well fresh and at 1400m. He’s another that might get back and hit the line in preparation for the 1600m final but should go well.

Tip: (13) Dice Roll- $4.00 at TAB

Value: (7) Aramayo- $15.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Dice Roll, 0.25 units E/W Aramayo

Odds Last Updated: June 19, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

(1) Red Can Man is a classy WA galloper who has trialled exceptionally well leading into this. I think he’s probably better over 1400m but he’s got an excellent 1st up record with 3 wins from 6 starts, and he’s never missed a place at 1100m, including a win over Laverrod who we’ve seen come out and win the Hareeba, which is a similar race to this. Gets Kah on, sits on speed and should be hard to beat.

(5) Sartorial Splendor is flying and was too good again at 1100m last start, although he needs good ground and will be scratched unless we’re on a soft 5 or better, which I’d say is a touch unlikely. If he comes out, Red Can Man could lead.

(10) Muntaseera was backed off the map and a bit unlucky behind SS last start. 1100m is her best distance and she should run well again.

(6) I Am Someone was a bit plain first up but very good last week behind Zipping Boy in a similar race, running the day’s fastest last 600m on a day you needed to be on speed. He’s 3 from 4 when 3rd up and a soft track down the straight at 1100m is clearly his ideal set up in my opinion. Can definitely make a case at $15.

Tip: (1) Red Can Man- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Value: (6) I Am Someone- $15.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Red Can Man, 0.5 units E/W I Am Someone