Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 23rd

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Two horses I’ll be backing to kick off Manikato Stakes night. (1) Captain Cook can improve sharply second up tonight. He was beaten out of sight first up but don’t worry about that, that’s always how he goes first up. He’s had eight starts fresh for no placings, but he’s got two wins and three 2nds from six starts when second up. His only start over this track and distance was a win in Group 3 company last prep and I don’t think this is a great field he comes up against tonight. Can’t believe he’s the outsider of the field and will be backing him at $9.00.

(4) One More Try is the other I’ll be on. She’s currently a $3.80 chance. She ran 3^rd here two starts ago behind Mystic Journey and Perfect Jewel, before flashing home last start at Flemington. She gets Craig Williams back on tonight and she likes the wet ground, so if the rain comes it will suit her.

Top pick: (1) Captain Cook $9.00 Pointsbet

Also backing: (4) One More Try $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Captain Cook, 1 unit WIN One More Try

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(1) West Wind is the horse to beat here, coming off back-to-back wins over this distance at Cranbourne. That took her record to five wins and three placings from 10 starts and with this stable, they normally just keep winning. She will lead again from barrier 1 and take plenty of beating.

I’m keen to back (7) Nerve Not Verve each way though. I think she’s a great bet at $7.50/$2.20. She improved from her first up run to her second up run, not beaten far over the mile at Bendigo last time out. She now steps up to 2040m third up from a spell. She followed a very similar path last prep, stepping up to 2000m third up after a run over the mile, and she ran 2^nd beaten a nose by Oasis Girl in listed company. Barrier 2 could see her sit outside West Wind and she will get every chance. Her only start over this track and distance was a 2.75L win so she should be very competitive at each way odds.

Top pick: (7) Nerve Not Verve $7.50 Unibet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN, 2 units PLC Nerve Not Verve

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Great little race this. (8) Simply Optimistic is flying for the new stable and is the horse to beat, coming off consecutive wins. Won dominantly over track and distance last start, handles the wet and will be right up on speed from barrier 2.

With that said, there’s two others in the race I’m keen to back. (3) All Too Royal flies first up with four wins from five starts, with his debut being the only time he hasn’t won fresh. First up last prep he won a listed race at Caulfield, and the prep before that he was enormous winning in Sydney. If the track was really wet it would be a little query but with that lethal first up record, I have to take the $5.50 on offer.

I also think (4) Parsifal is primed to run a big race third up. He’s been good in his first two runs back and he has a very good third up record. His only win at the track and distance was a win and the form behind Ancestry from last start looks very strong. He’s also $5.50.

(5) Sansom has obvious claims.

Top pick: (3) All Too Royal $5.50 Unibet

Also backing: (4) Parsifal $5.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN All Too Royal $5.50, 0.5 unit WIN Parsifal $5.50

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

This is a very icky race. (1) So Si Bon drops out of Group 1 company, where he’s raced in his past four starts. He ran 3^rd behind Fierce Impact and Russian Camelot three starts back, and a repeat of that would see him dominate this race. But I’ve never been able to catch him and at $2.30 I’m not about to try.

(2) Iconoclasm looks set for this race. His last start was a much better showing than what he offered in his first two runs this campaign, and he won at this stage last preparation, so he looks primed. The concern would be if the track was wet, as he’s placed just once from six starts on rain-affected ground.

(3) Ken’s Dream isn’t hopeless and looks the value at $10.

Top pick: (2) Iconoclasm $3.10 Unibet

Value: (3) Ken’s Dream $10 Unibet

Betting Strategy: No bet.

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The 955m dash looks a very tricky betting race. We have (8) Human Nature as favourite coming down from Sydney, where I thought he was very disappointing last start. His run first up over this track and distance behind Alfa Oro was very good though, so if he reproduced that he’d eb the one to beat. He draws the gate to be given every chance.

(7) Sartorial Splendour resumes here as a gelding, which could be the making of him as a racehorse. With that said, he’s been $2.50 to $4.00 since markets opened, which is never a good sign, particularly from this stable. He’s a speedball though and if allowed to go forward, he will take plenty of catching. I’m going to take the punt on him and the way the market is trending, we may get a getter price still. If he continued to drift this badly, though, you’d have to be very worried.

I think the huge value in the race is (10) Kyzamba at $43. She was only beaten 2L first up from a 69-week spell and she has an outstanding second up record, with three wins from five starts. She goes well at this distance and the other key will be if the track is wet, as she’s won five of her eight starts on soft ground. Wait to see what the track condition is – if it’s in the soft range, have a small bet on her at the huge odds.

(6) Condo’s Express next best.

Top pick: (7) Sartorial Splendour $4.00 Sportsbet

Value: (10) Kyzamba $43 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.75 unit WIN sartorial Splendour, 0.25 unit WIN Kyzamba

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(3) Written Beauty looks a good thing here and is priced accordingly. She would have been my best bet on the card but there’s been a few key scratchings which have left her price too short. She had her first two starts in Queensland before being transferred to the Hawkes team, and she was dominant in her first start for the new camp. First time in Melbourne and first time at The Valley are both small queries but she looks pretty good.

(5) Hot Water was dominant on debut at Mornington and ran a quicker time over 1000m than the BM64 that (9) Wild Cherry Road ran 2^nd in.

Top pick: (3) Written Beauty $1.50 Unibet

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Another very tricky betting race. (9) Night Guy won consecutive races before finishing hard at Cranbourne last start to run 2^nd. He finished 1.5L off the favourite (3) Groundswell but he was slow away on that occasion and got too far back, while Groundswell sat outside the leader and was too strong.

Groundswell will be a bit of a query on genuinely wet ground, but that won’t be the case for Night Guy who has two wins on heavy tracks. I think at the prices, I’d rather be with Night Guy each way.

(5) Titan Blinders will lead and give a good sight as he always does. He drops significantly in weight tonight which might help him but he keeps finding one or two better.

(7) Beehunter draws barrier 1 third up from a spell and is capable on his day, but he’s a hard horse to catch and I’d suggest watching the market closely with him.

The drop back to 1500m should suit (4) Thought Of That who returns from a trip to Sydney and can’t be ruled out.

Top pick: (9) Night Guy E/W $9.60/$2.35 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 unit WIN, 1.5 units PLC Night Guy

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Click here to find Trent Crebbin’s comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the G1 Manikato Stakes!