Mornington Racing Tips: Saturday, March 20th

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 12:17pm (AEDT)

(1) Micro is the horse to beat coming off a solid 4^th to Lightsaber in the VRC sires. I think that’ll turn out to be a fairly strong race and he looks to get a beautiful run on the map. The price is probably about right.

 

(6) Swamp Vixen won nicely on debut after controlling the race. There’s an easy line between her and the favourite through Forgot You, who was beaten 1.4L by Swamp Vixen and 2.2L by Micro. She should be able to lead this from barrier 1 and being on the rail at Mornington is generally advantageous. Slight leaning to her at the prices.

 

(2) Daily Bugle was just fair in the VRC sires after getting back and wide. He can improve but was a few lengths off Micro.

Tip: (6) Swamp Vixen- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Swamp Vixen

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

Going with the Sydney form in (5) Mohican Heights who improved last start up to 2000m. He was well backed off a good trial first up but never featured. He settled closer last start and loomed on the turn but gave out late, beaten 2.4L by Yonkers, with Realm Of Flowers and Great House not far in front. Drawn barrier 3 and striking a fairly thin race, he won’t get a better chance.

 

(7) Snoano is the other one that can roll forward in a race full of backmarkers and he’s a fit horse in form. He had the dream run last start but put them away with ease. This is harder but he’ll be right up on speed on the rails from barrier one.

 

(4) Grand Promenade is a handy horse when right but didn’t really come up last prep. He’ll get back but is definitely good enough. The first up run when flashing home behind Shandy reads well.

Tip: (5) Mohican Heights- $5.50 at Bet365

Value: (7) Snoano- $13.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mohican Heights, 0.5 units WIN Snoano

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(6) Incredulous Dream comes here first up. I think she’s better over 1400m and maybe even a mile, but her form reads well. She beat Yes Baby Yes and Rainbiel off a let up over 1400m last prep which reads well.

 

(1) Garvoc has been desperately unlucky at her last two starts and probably should’ve won both of them. She’s not particularly well in at the weights with 60.5kg stepping up in grade but deserves another win.

 

(8) Florescent Star could be the value. She’s absolutely flying this prep having led all the way in both starts and doing it easily. She’s on her home track, draws nicely in barrier 5 and will be in this for a long time at $9.

 

(2) Witchfulthinking is good enough on her day and will roll forward. She’s had a let up and jumped out well since.

Tip: (8) Florescent Star- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Florescent Star

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

At the time of writing Marabi hasn’t been scratched, but she should be running at The Valley. With that in mind, (3) Maritana goes on top at a price. He has a quite remarkable stat of being 3/3 at the T/D and 5/7 at the 1200m. The trial was just fair when ridden along but it was against Felicia and Alfa Oro who are far better than anything in this field. Barrier one with Hefel on doesn’t fill me with stacks of confidence but we should still be looking at a good price after scratchings.

 

(6) Ginger Jones was a good winner first up and had a tough run in Adelaide 2^nd up in a strong race and dropped out. He’s never placed from 6 attempts at the 1200m which is the worrying stat.

 

(9) Cielo D’oro is on the backup from All Star Mile day where he ran 2^nd to Exeter. He gets away from The Valley but it’s not a dissimilar track, although he likely gets back from the wide gate.

 

(1) Design Rouge has run 2^nd on three occasions when 3^rd up and comes into this off a win over Laverrod. He draws wide but with the right run can feature.

Tip: (3) Maritana- $18.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Maritana

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Sartorial Splendor is near impossible to catch but his best would make him very hard to beat here. He started $2.50 first up over the 955m but missed the start and had to boot through to lead. He was under pressure on the turn but actually stuck on okay, beaten 2.3L by Lesage who had the perfect camp on them. Drawn barrier one here, if he jumps as usual, he should lead this comfortably and take some running down.

 

(9) China Affair was beaten by Sartorial Splendor last start but does look to map well from barrier 4. If that horse folds up he could pounce, and he does enjoy the 1000m trip.

 

(6) Not Enough Effort raced 4 wide no cover last start when hard in the market behind Forever Free. His two runs prior behind Ididitforlove are solid form for this and he’s another that maps well.

 

(7) Sapphire Crown would be hard to beat if it were wet, but on a very firm deck I just have my reservations, given his only start on a good track was a failure when starting $2.60.

 

Not a whole lot of confidence but the best of Sartorial Splendor would go very close here, so I do have him on top from the inside.

Tip: (1) Sartorial Splendor- $4.80 at Topsport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Sartorial Splendor

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

Guineas time but it’s hard. (2) Dom To Shoot is your favourite coming off a poor run in the Australian Guineas where I thought he had every chance and was beaten 5.6L. He’s been up a long time and although his best form would win this comfortably, he does look like he’s at the end of his prep.

 

(5) Lofty Star won for us last start at good odds in a much easier race at Sandown and does look to control this race, but whether he’s good enough is the query.

 

(4) Let’s Karaka Deel ran well all last prep. He split Albarado and Hit The Shot in a Norman Robinson over 1800m and can race on speed. Whether he’s fit enough first up at 1600m is the query, but he was so raw last prep and I think there’s more to come with him.

 

(7) Black Penn absolutely bolted in at Pakenham in a maiden last start and whilst this is obviously harder he’s progressive.

 

Very tough. If Let’s Karaka Deel stays firm I could have something on because I think he could have the most upside of these.

Tip: (4) Let’s Karaka Deel- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Let’s Karaka Deel

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Cup time and it’s attracted a quality field. (7) Mount Popa brings the different form to most of these down from Sydney and I’m fairly confident he wins this, as the stable did with Masked Crusader in the William Reid. He ran well first up when $4.40 against Shared Ambition, which ties in a lot of these runners, and backed it up with a good win against Sacramento who is flying and rock hard fit. 3^rd up here, mapping just behind the speed from barrier 4 he’ll be hard to beat.

 

(3) Defibrillate was good in the Australian Cup and I think he’s looking for the 2400m now. He’s absolutely flying and although he gets 59.5kg he’ll run well again.

 

(2) Chapada was also very good in the Aus Cup and gets to his best trip of 2400m. He won the g3 Herbert Power over this trip in the Spring and although he maps a touch rearwards, he’ll be hard to hold out.

 

(6) Nonconformist was given none in the Aus Cup when racing about 6 wide. He draws wide again here and loses Currie. He’s got a sense of missed the boat, although I do think 2400m will suit this horse.

 

Not a lot between most of these from the Aus Cup, which is why Mount Popa sticks out. He was too strong for a fit, in form leader last start and maps beautifully from barrier 4.

 

Tip: (7) Mount Popa- $2.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Mount Popa

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

All about (1) Ancestry here who opted for this over the William Reid. He was below his best in the Oakleigh Plate but bounced back to form last week, destroying a decent field by 2.3L heavily eased down late. From barrier 1 he should go straight to the front and never see a rival.

 

(5) Felicia trialled very well leading into this first up run and will roll forward. She’s run top 2 in 5 of her 6 starts at the 1200m and should run well.

 

(3) Sirius Suspect was solid in the Newmarket at his preferred T/D down the straight. He’s a consistent horse and likely sits just off Ancestry, hoping that horse is below his best.

 

Not a host of other chances in my opinion, and if Ancestry is anywhere near his best he should be way too good. We should be looking at around $2.20 after Brooklyn Hustle comes out which is more than fair- he should be odds on.

Tip: (1) Ancestry- $2.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3.5 units WIN Ancestry

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

Very open finish. Going to back the import (11) Marchons Ensemble who has trialled very well leading into his Australian debut. He jumped nicely and settled outside the leader, taking over late under no riding to win by 2.5L. This is a fairly even race and without being entirely over his UK form he did win his maiden over 1550m by 3.5L. He should be just off the speed from barrier 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if this horse starts much shorter.

 

(13) Merchant Of Venice was a good winner 2^nd up over 1400m, taking forever to get there but defying the pattern to win well. He’ll appreciate the 1600m it’s just how far he has to get back.

 

(10) Independent Road is very consistent but does generally do his best racing at Flemington.

 

(14) Flandersrain has a good SP profile and gets in with 53.5kg after the claim. She was solid on speed behind Intellective last start.

Tip: (11) Marchons Ensemble- $6.10 at Sportsbetting

Saver: (13) Merchant Of Venice- $5.50 at Winnersbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Marchons Ensemble, 0.25 units WIN Merchant Of Venice