Muswellbrook Racing Tips: Monday, October 19th

Odds Last Updated: October 20, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 20, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This race doesn’t have a lot of depth and I think (2) Steps On Fire can start this preparation off with a win. Coming back after a five-month break, the Sidestep gelding showed he is a nice free-running horse with solid runs in all bar one of his races. He ended last preparation with a solid run at Tamworth where he was beaten 0.2 lengths behind Bit Of A Beauty, though our bloke had to carry 59kg, it was very credible. The form from that race stood up well over the coming weeks and months after with Ronan’s Rock, More Than A Samba and Policy all winning. From the wide draw, apprentice Reece Jones will push forward with his 1.5kg claim and ensure he is the one to catch in the concluding stages.

Tip: (2) Steps On Fire – $2.60 at Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: October 20, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I will put my hand up and say, I backed this bloke last start and I thought we were going to knock off the short-priced favourite at Orange, but alas we just missed. (1) Prodigal Prince stepped up to the mile for the first time which I did believe he would handle, and I think he is going to handle the 1500m here at Muswellbrook. Although he doesn’t have a kind draw, there doesn’t look like there is a lot of pace in this race, so if he can begin well enough, he should be able to get across from the wide barrier before they hit the back straight. He is going to be third-up fit and hopefully be in a nice position to utilize the turn of foot he showed last start. I think he is currently over the odds.

Tip: (1) Prodigal Prince – $4.50 at Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: October 20, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This is a pretty weak maiden with very little depth, so I think (13) Lionsteps is up to her ears here and can finally break the maiden status. Greg Ryan has ridden her in the past two outings and has gone down by less than two lengths both times. Last start here at Muswellbrook, she had to go back from the poor barrier but flew home into third by less than 1.5 lengths. They have drawn much better here to be able to sit much closer in the run and with two rides on the filly, Greg Ryan will know when to get her going in the straight. I think she is the better bet of the two favourites.

Tip: (13) Lionsteps – $3.30 at PlayUp

Odds Last Updated: February 16, 2021, 6:17pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 20, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: February 22, 2021, 2:23am (AEDT)

I think I have found one at bigger odds that may improve off their last start performance. (3) Belle De Vega was very poor last start and they initially couldn’t figure out why. The rider claimed he heard a respiratory noise and pulled her up prior to the 600m mark, though they didn’t find anything in the post-race examination. Kim Waugh advised that she may have displaced it’s soft palate and that it could explain the poor performance. She has since trialled to the stewards satisfaction and I think will be ready to go here. She will technically be fourth-up over 1500m which is ideal and Serg Lisnyy jumps back aboard, and he knows her well. I expect her to sit midfield and be really letting down late in the piece. This is a flip of the coin job based on her last performance.

Tip: (3) Belle De Vega – $8.50 at Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: October 20, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I think this is the best bet of the day and I expect his mare to go through this grade with relative ease. (3) Lady Patricia showed how good she was last start at this track and trip, and I expect something similar today. She is ideally drawn in barrier one and regular jockey Christian Reith stays aboard. She only goes up 1kg of her 3.3L maiden win and she will sit nice and handy throughout the entire run. It will not matter if she is stuck on the fence behind the leaders or not as the cutaway will come into effect at the 300m mark. She will be much to good for these and you are getting a nice price also.

Tip: (3) Lady Patricia – $3.90 at PlayUp (BEST BET)