Randwick-Kensington Racing Tips: Thursday, March 25th

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

 

Geez this looks a tough race with many first starters and with the rain we have had, it’s hard to be confident.

(11) Lease is the first emergency here and I am expecting him to gain a start. I really liked his first-up run behind Athelric and rival Otelo, where the pace was below par, and he come home well from the back of the field. He ended up back there due to the draw and he has not been given any favours here with a similar draw. On the positive, his breeding suggests the wet shouldn’t be an issue and he has a run under his belt which will count for plenty here. I am expecting a much better run this time out.

(4) Kalino is the favourite based on his latest trial, which was impressive. It will be interesting to see if he is ready to go first-up, but I am sure all eyes will be on him regardless.

(1) Best Side is another Waller runner who has trialled nicely, and I expect him to be a touch more forward than his stablemate. He is draw well and will make his presence felt.

Tip: (4) Kalino $3.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 1:51pm (AEDT)

I think the well-bred (10) Yearning can run a race on debut and I strongly believe she will be one to follow out of the race regardless. The daughter of Snitzel has had two 900m trials in preparation for her debut which were only 11 days apart. In her latest trial, she was taken all the way to the line by the other Arrowfield owned horse, but she was very strong to the line, saluting narrowly. I think she will be better over further based on her breeding but one positive about her breeding is that her mother wasn’t terrible in the wet, which will be beneficial to her if those characteristics are carried on. I think she is worth a small bet.

(8) Trifaccia has showed the penny hasn’t quite dropped, though her latest run was a big flashing light. She was slow out and sat off a slow pace before steaming home to miss by under a length back in third. The run was very good, but I query how she will go on a very wet track, especially if she ends up missing the kick again. She has the talent, but she isn’t for me at the price.

(1) Ashema does look the best of the rest with fitness on her side.

Tip: (10) Yearning $17.00/$4.40

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Yearning FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 2:26pm (AEDT)

The three in the market look the ones to bet with here and I will be very surprised if one of these three don’t salute.

(9) Pretty Elsa has had three trials in preparation for this with the latest trial an impressive 2.75 length win. She was cruising in the trial and she looks as though she has some talent, but again, it is only a trial. I expect her to be ridden conservatively out of barrier three due to her gear changes (tongue tie, lugging bit and pre-race earmuffs). I am very keen to see how she goes.

(3) Stelvio is a well-bred gelding who has had two races starts in her career, with her latest run a second at Kembla on a Friday. James McDonald takes the ride, and he has ridden both of the other horses in the market in their trials, so I am wondering if he made this decision, or the stable did. He is drawn well and if he handles the track, he will be there in the finish.

(6) Waihaha Falls is the other I don’t mind here, though on the back of one trial and the way he finished off the trial, I expect him to be solid late and looking for further.

Tip: (9) Pretty Elsa $4.25

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Pretty Elsa FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 3:06pm (AEDT)

Happy to oppose the favourite here and go with (4) Switched, despite the fact she is first-up. I thought she trialled up well even though she generally comes to hand quite quickly, as portrayed by her first-up record of 2 wins and a second off the three goes. What’s just as impressive is her heavy track record, where she is yet to miss a placing in eight starts. She loves the 1100m also, so I expect her to be right in this finish, especially with the 2kg claim of Louise Day. I will not be surprised if she attempts to take up the running and tries to pinch a good break in the straight.

(2) Lost and Running is the clear horse to beat and that is portrayed through his price. His win first-up was effortless and he should be thereabouts once again. I heard John O’Shea say that he wants to get the miles into his legs, which has me on the fence on whether he is running him here purely for fitness or if he thinks he can win on a heavy track.

(3) Lucicello was a touch disappointing first-up but gets the luxury of coming back in grade. She handles all conditions though she may give our top two picks a start.

Tip: (4) Switched $7.10

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Switched FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 3:41pm (AEDT)

I am happy to put (5) Shangani Patrol on top here with a good history over this distance and on wet tracks. He was massive last start after Sam Clipperton put in a daring ride whilst leading the entire race except for the final 50m, where he was beaten by half a length on the line. It was interesting to note that to the eye it was a fast run race, but the pace was below par, which would have suited him anyway. He is nearing peak fitness and Clipperton remains aboard, I expect a similar ride, especially with the likelihood of an easy lead.

(1) California Longbow has performed well in the past over this distance in much harder grade and should be fit enough to be a chance here. His run in the listed Canberra Cup was fair despite over racing during the run. With minimal pace engaged, expect McEvoy to put him right behind the leaders back throughout.

(2) Savvy Valentino is in good form and loves the staying trip. He should be thereabouts.

Tip: (5) Shangani Patrol $4.20

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Shangani Patrol FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

I have looked at this race many times and to be honest, it got harder each time I looked at it. So many variables and unknowns, but I ended up settling with (9) Nicci’s Fling. She returned well at Canterbury three runs ago behind Cardiff before tackling the Group 2 Light Fingers, where she was bold but no match for her opposition. Gary Portelli then sent her to the Canberra Guineas where she travelled keenly in a hot race before fading a touch to finish three lengths back in fourth. This is the easiest race she has contested since returning from a break and with fitness on her side, I expect her to be right in this race.

(3) Kiku is the one to beat after an eye-catching return at Warwick Farm. She has since had a tick-over trial to keep her going and she should be cherry ripe for this race. She has raced on heavy going before, so that experience will help, and I am positive that by this time of the day, the barrier won’t be a concern.

(4) Jojo Was A Man was impressive on debut but he will now have to take the next step and tackle a few unknowns.

Tip: (9) Nicci’s Fling $10.00/$3.30

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

I think (4) My Swashbuckler is over the odds here and can run a massive race. Since coming to Australia, this bloke has had two poor runs and they have both been first-up though I thought both had decent excuses. He comes here second-up after running a bold race in the Provincial Championships Qualifier at his home track. The gelding will appreciate the step up to 1550m and will relish the conditions as well. I concede that he is drawn wide, but that won’t be too bad this late in the day especially since this race has a ton of speed, so he should be able to come across into a handy position. He is definitely worth a small bet.

(7) Saigon is a deserved favourite after winning well first-up before narrowly running second to The Irishman at Warwick Farm. The Irishman has since run a massive second in the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes, which is a tremendous form line for our girl here. She arguably should of beat The Irishman second-up, but she was held up briefly in the straight which would have slightly altered her momentum. She is fit, handles the going and will appreciate the step up to 1550m.

(9) Foxborough is a chance to go back-to-back at good odds.

Tip: (4) My Swashbuckler $18.00/$5.00

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN My Swashbuckler FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 25, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

On paper it does look a race in two between (2) Tommy Gold and (11) Rainbow Connection but by this time of the day, it might be time to put the cue into the rack.

(11) Rainbow Connection was impressive on debut, running a solid rating on route to 2.6 length win over this track and distance. He should take some good improvement out of that run and I expect another solid performance, providing he handles the going.

(2) Tommy Gold is coming back from a solid run in listed grade. He was no match for Wild Ruler though he did finish within 1.2 lengths of Andermatt and On The Lead. The colt comes back to a benchmark 72 and is drawn well to get a nice run in the race. There is still a question mark over whether he can handle the going though.

(13) Calgary Queen can run a solid race providing she gets a start.

Tip: (2) Tommy Gold $3.10

Betting Strategy: No Bet