Connect with us

Racing Tips

Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, May 1st

Ascot hosts a nine-race card on Saturday afternoon and Tim Geers’ best bet comes up in the opening event.

Ascot-Racing

WA racing continues at Ascot on Saturday afternoon, where we have nine races on the card, including a couple of exceptionally good contests.

The track is currently rated a Soft 6 after a deluge of rain during the week in Perth, but that could dry out as the meeting progresses. The rail is in the 2m position.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card with his tips and betting strategy below.

Best Bet: Race 1 – (2) Acromantula

Best Value: Race 4 – (7) Black Pearl

PlayUp

0

Race 1

Amelia Park (Bm62+) (1000m)
1:49pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Amelia Park (Bm62+) (1000m)
1:49pm (AEDT)

1. Queen Brown (4) J: Brad Parnham (59kg) T: D L Morton
8.58.589.58.78
2. Acromantula (2) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57.5kg) T: D & B Pearce
2.62.52.52.62.62.6
3. Vadette De Star (5) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: Simon Miller
2.72.82.72.92.752.8
4. Critical Altitude (1) J: Jason Brown (54kg) T: N D Parnham
6.5665.566
5. Miss Livinia (3) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (54kg) T: Simon Miller
8.598.58.57.79.5
6. Precautionary (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: F R Kersley
343431313841

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 1:52pm (AEDT)

(2) Acromantula was impressive on his resumption to racing two weeks ago, where he led all the way over this track and distance. He’s won two of his three starts, both of the 1000m, with his only loss being when he pulled up with the thumps. Should be able to find the front from barrier 2 and despite going up in weight, is the one to beat again.

(3) Vadette De Star recorded the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting when running 3rd to Acromantula last start. That was her first run for six weeks. Her biggest problem is her racing pattern, which sees her get back in the field. She’s likely to be back there again and if she gives Acromantula a big head-start, she’ll struggle to run him down.

(1) Queen Brown has some strong form littered through her page. First up last prep she ran 2nd to Clairvoyance, with Gemma’s Son back in 3rd. Following that she ran in four Listed races in a row. First up here, no shock to see her run well, but this might also be short of her best.

Tip: (2) Acromantula $2.25 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Acromantula

0

Race 2

Crown Perth Plate (1200m)
2:24pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Crown Perth Plate (1200m)
2:24pm (AEDT)

1. Fatale Femme (2) J: Jordan Turner (57.5kg) T: S & J Casey
3.33.333.23.253
2. Gorgeous Gossip (5) J: Ms Lisa Staples (56kg) T: P H Jordan
2126212123.523
3. Written Exceed (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: T M Andrews
4. Northern Ruler (3) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
77676.96
5. Cheddar Bob (11) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
413431413934
6. Ruthless Tycoon (6) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: S J Miller
3.43.33.33.333.3
7. Queen's Gift (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: F R Kersley
65.5555.75
8. Crowned Princess (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (54kg) T: Ms J Mitchell
9. Shezaclassychix (7) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: D R Harrison
9.510999.49.5
10. Silver Bugg (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
2326212626.523
11. Born To Be Lucky (9) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: J N Pateman
2021191914.619

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 2:27pm (AEDT)

A race for the two-year-olds here, and this is one I’ll be sitting out of.

(6) Ruthless Tycoon has trialled up particularly well for his debut here, winning two 950m heats at Lark Hill. In his latest trial, he led the field up and when they levelled up to him in the straight, he kicked away again nicely under minimal pressure. There only appears to be moderate speed here so expect him to roll forward and if he settles well, he should prove hard to run down.

(1) Fatale Femme bounced back to something like her best form in the Karrakatta Plate last start, working home nicely into 4th behind Ex Sport Man. Troy Turner jumps off another horse in the race to ride her and she draws well in barrier 2.

(7) Queen’s Gift is the horse Troy Turner jumps off to ride the favourite. She’s run 2nd in her two career starts and was only beaten by a whisker last start. Drawn well today and no reason she can’t be competitive again.

(9) Shezaclassychix next best.

Tip: (6) Ruthless Tycoon $4.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 3

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet-Rs1mw (1200m)
3:04pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet-Rs1mw (1200m)
3:04pm (AEDT)

1. Home In Five (3) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: M L Lane
4.24.23.944.354
2. Pure Magnus (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59kg) T: P J Fernie
1416151617.215
3. Sassy Trader (9) J: Jordan Turner (58.5kg) T: S & J Casey
554.655.24.6
4. Holy Ghost (6) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
6.576.56.56.86.5
5. Blankenberge (10) J: Ms Madi Derrick (57.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
2626212126.526
6. Captain Burglar (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham
1717171918.218
7. Lonehand Larry (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
1516161614.816
8. Billy Ray (4) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: G & A Williams
2.92.72.62.82.52.7
9. Cristal Dane (7) J: Troy Turner (55kg) T: Ms S L Miller
465151515561
10. Reaction (8) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: D J Waldock
616781919381

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 3:07pm (AEDT)

(1) Home In Five is a horse I’ve got plenty of time for and he resumes from a spell today. He won three of his four starts last preparation, with his only defeat coming when he was literally held up the entire straight. He resumes with the bar plates off today and the pads on instead, which is a positive sign that his feet are in better shape. Carries the big weight but he’s done so before and can do so again. Chris Parnham rode him in both trials but jumps off to ride the Peters horse here – that’s not a great sign but he basically rides all the Peters horses when Pike is away, so it’s not necessarily him leaning to the better horse.

(8) Billy Ray is the horse I speak of, and he’s already been supported in early betting. I declared this horse a superstar from his early trials, but he struggled to produce that on race day, notching up three placings at short odds in his first four starts. He resumed with a promising run behind Just A Pinch first up. I think when he learns what the caper is all about he’ll be a decent horse, but whether he still does too much wrong is the concern.

(4) Holy Ghost should have more than one win to his name. He always runs well, he just often leaves too much to do. He’s got a big finish on him and one day soon he’ll win a race like this.

(2) Pure Magnus comes to town from Kalgoorlie. He won first up and then ran well in defeat last start. He tends to go well third up and the fact Peter Fernie brings him to town suggests he’s a live chance.

Tip: (1) Home In Five $4.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Home In Five

0

Race 4

Schweppes (Bm66+) (2200m)
3:44pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Schweppes (Bm66+) (2200m)
3:44pm (AEDT)

1. Come Right Back (10) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: A G Durrant
4.64.64.654.854.4
2. So Schmick (6) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: S J Wolfe
1717171717.217
3. Bonneville Black (8) J: Troy Turner (59kg) T: F R Kersley
2626212125.526
4. Black Shadow (4) J: Jason Brown (58.5kg) T: J P Taylor
3.73.73.53.63.653.5
5. Mosseratti (5) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: C R Green
66666.26
6. Lyle's Choice (3) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: D & B Pearce
9999.57.79
7. Secret Pearl (1) J: Alan Kennedy (56.5kg) T: Ricky Moss
65.5555.55
8. Vintage Stock (2) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: A D Mathews
887.57.57.27.5
9. Treat Yo Self (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: A G Durrant
10. Upward Others (9) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: H S Mclaren
273131312331

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 3:47pm (AEDT)

Interesting race over 2200m here. (9) Treat Yo Self comes up favourite after an easy win over 1800m in Class 3 company at the midweeks last start. She ran that in 1:52.05 which isn’t very quick. She was able to completely dictate the race from the front and then kick away in the straight. This is a step up in grade but there looks to be very little tempo again, so she might get away with it, but at the prices I’m not keen to dive in.

(4) Black Shadow took two runs to get fit but he’s hit form now, winning two starts ago before being edged out last start. He won his 1800m race in 1:49.53, about 2.5 seconds quicker than Treat Yo Self’s winning time last start. Granted it’s hard to line them up on different days but that’s about 15L quicker. Draws well again and has won over this track and distance before, so the $5.50 looks appealing.

(7) Secret Pearl looks the value at $8.00. She is another that took a couple of runs to get fit, but she showed last start she’s ready to win. She loves this distance and should be ready to peak. Draws barrier 1 so should get a suck run behind the leaders and with any luck, should be hitting the line hard.

(1) Come Right Back next best.

Tip: (4) Black Shadow $5.50 TAB

Value: (7) Secret Pearl $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Black Shadow, 0.5 units WIN Secret Pearl

0

Race 5

Heineken 3 (Rs1mw) (1800m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Heineken 3 (Rs1mw) (1800m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

1. Uncle Lino (7) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (60kg) T: Raymond Vincent
2326212125.526
2. Beret (10) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59kg) T: A G Durrant
4.44.44.24.44.44.2
3. Chief Archer (9) J: Jason Whiting (58.5kg) T: Jesse Byrne
887.587.67.5
4. Friar's Fantasia (12) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: D & B Pearce
1414131513.613
5. Proceeds Of Crime (4) J: Ms Madi Derrick (57kg) T: C G Willis
232120192023
6. Koranis (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: Jarrad Noske
66665.96
7. San Crispino (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Ms S L Miller
1315151511.816
8. Off Wego (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant
2.452.452.42.52.42.4
9. Midnight Banquet (2) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55kg) T: O J Cocking
151151101101151151
10. Western King (8) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55kg) T: P B Hunter
515151515151
11. All Man (11) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
515151514951
12. Praying With God (1) J: Troy Turner (54.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller
414141515141

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 4:27pm (AEDT)

(2) Beret was a touch unlucky in defeat over this track and distance last start, copping a heavy check at the start of the race before running home strongly to be beaten 0.25L. She draws out again today in barrier 10, with Laqdar Ramoly taking the reigns from William Pike. If she can find a spot in the running line to the turn, she should be hitting the line strongly.

(6) Koranis just didn’t see out the 2100m last start and now drops back to 1800m. He put two wins together before last start and gets his regular jockey Kershaw Dhurun back aboard today. Draws a soft gate and can bounce back at each way odds.

(8) Off Wego is racking up the placings and although looks well-placed again, I have to take on at the price.

Chances don’t end there in an open race.

Tip: (2) Beret $4.00 TopSport

Value: (6) Koranis $8.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Beret, 0.5 units WIN Koranis

0

Race 6

Devils Lair (Bm78+) (1500m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Devils Lair (Bm78+) (1500m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Falcon Crest (6) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: Joshua Mcleod
516151717351
2. Friaresque (8) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: Ms E Strempel
6.56.566.56.36
3. Watch Me Dance (4) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57kg) T: S J Wolfe
2.152.152.12.252.32.1
4. Majinika (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Summer Dickson
8.58.57.587.68.5
5. Touch Of Silver (1) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: A G Durrant
6. Adornment (7) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: A G Durrant
10111011119
7. Position Of Power (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55kg) T: D R Harrison
87.5776.38.5
8. Not To Be Mist (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5kg) T: A G Durrant
4.84.64.64.64.54.4
9. Scoreline (5) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54.5kg) T: Ms C Gilbert
617171718371

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

Going to give (8) Not To Be Mist one final chance today. He was never a winning chance last start on a day which played heavily to those on speed. He ended up buried away back in the field with 60kg. Gets the blinkers off for the first time today and the tongue tie goes on. Down in weight, this is his chance.

(3) Watch Me Dance is the class runner who drops back into 78+ company. She ran 2nd in this grade behind Tycoon Storm three starts ago and has since run in Listed company. She has the advantage of putting herself on speed, while her main rival will be back behind her.

(4) Majinika makes his debut for a new stable after winning at big odds last start. He’d been luckless in several runs up until that point. Hard to know how he will go as a 9YO gelding having his first run for the new camp?

(7) Position of Power will bob up in a race like this soon and if the track is still soft, his chances go up enormously.

Tip: (8) Not To Be Mist $4.40 Unibet

Value: (7) Position Of Power $15 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Not To Be Mist, 0.5 units WIN Position Of Power

0

Race 7

Mrs Macs (Bm72+) (1000m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Mrs Macs (Bm72+) (1000m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

1. Gemma's Son (3) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (62.5kg) T: D R Harrison
76.5666.16
2. River Beau (2) J: Jason Whiting (61kg) T: B V Watkins
6665.55.46
3. Nerodio (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
9.59.59.59.510.210
4. Captain Kink (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: Brett Pope
1818161516.617
5. Miss Conteki (1) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: Simon Miller
2.252.22.22.2522.2
6. Speeding Comet (7) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: Mitchell Pateman
919110191111101
7. Guns Of Navarone (4) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
8. This'll Testya (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5kg) T: A G Durrant
3.83.93.23.43.453.3
9. Glasgow Girl (5) J: Ms Sasha Starley (54kg) T: B P Graham

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 5:37pm (AEDT)

What a race this is, but it’s nearly impossible to bet!

(5) Miss Conteki comes up the favourite at $2.35 which is probably an acceptable price, but it’s the kind of race she could come out and stamp her authority as the real deal, or get found out against some elite horses. She’s won six of her seven starts and draws gate 1, but there’s a chance she may be buried three-back the fence here. Hard to know where she gets and plenty will depend on how she jumps. This is her acid test.

(2) River Beau is absolutely flying. He was run down late by Miss Conteki three starts back but has since won his next two. He loves the 1000m and draws ideally in barrier 2. He should be able to sit box seat or one off the fence in 4th. Notably they elect to carry the full 61kg but he’s not a horse you’d put an apprentice on.

(1) Gemma’s Son is also flying. He was luckless in 3rd behind River Beau last start after sitting three-wide the trip. Bar plates off today, well drawn in barrier 3 but does have the apprentice on.

The leader here will be the resuming (8) This’ll Testya who is a speedball. She’s won her two starts when first up by a combined 7L. She’s always shown she has enormous talent but she can be her own worst enemy. They’ll let her roll fresh here and it would be no surprise to see her run them into the ground.

Tip: (5) Miss Conteki $2.35 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 8

Wspeed Autumn Final (Rs0mw) (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Wspeed Autumn Final (Rs0mw) (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

1. Sir Mambo (1) J: Jarrad Noske (62.5kg) T: Martin Allan
8.59998.59
2. Scooter's Machine (14) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (60.5kg) T: Ms C Gilbert
343434343534
3. Image Keeper (7) J: Brad Rawiller (59kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
443.943.53.9
4. Morgs Freeman (9) J: Brad Parnham (59kg) T: G S Hughes
1212121213.212
5. Requisition (11) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59kg) T: Brett Pope
2120181814.419
6. City Circle (8) J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
5.55.55.55.55.45.5
7. Prized Nemesis (10) J: Alan Kennedy (58.5kg) T: Ms A King
1616161615.416
8. Dew West (2) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: J N Pateman
2726262626.526
9. Fiery Water (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant
65.55.56.55.65
10. Lacevinsky (3) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: S J Wolfe
1212111112.212
11. Pink 'N' Gray (13) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: G P Evans
353434342634
12. Lock Her In (5) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (55.5kg) T: F R Kersley
464141413841
13. Miss Quoted (12) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: G M Ayres
192021212021
14. Michelle Ma Belle (6) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (54kg) T: Ms W Miller
1515141412.415
15. Petite La Femme (15) J: Ms Madi Derrick (54kg) T: C G Willis
353434343434

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 6:17pm (AEDT)

Complete lottery this Westspeed Final.

(6) City Circle won a similar race two starts back in a smaller field, before taking on a Graduation Handicap last start where she was beaten less than a length. She needs the ground as firm as possible – it’s currently a soft 6 but could dry out in time for this race. She will be very competitive if it gets back to a Good 4.

(3) Image Keeper is three from three this prep and is the horse to beat on current form. Goes up in weight but it’s hard to knock current form.

(4) Morgs Freeman can go well at double figure odds, as can (7) Prized Nemesis, (10) Lacevinsky and a host of others.

Tip: (6) City Circle $6.00 Unibet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN City Circle

0

Race 9

Events At Ascot (Bm66+) (1400m)
6:55pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Events At Ascot (Bm66+) (1400m)
6:55pm (AEDT)

1. My Demi (16) J: Ms Victoria Corver (60kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
343434343534
2. State Attorney (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: A G Durrant
6.57775.87
3. Playing Marika (11) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
232121262321
4. Staralign (14) J: Brad Rawiller (58.5kg) T: P J Fernie
1110101011.210
5. Diablerie (4) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
77776.47
6. Kelvin (9) J: Troy Turner (57kg) T: F R Kersley
101098.59.410
7. Sowar (1) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57kg) T: S J Wolfe
1313131512.413
8. Wild Fusion (6) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: Liam O'loughlin
109.5889.48.5
9. Karijini Aurora (12) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
131313131313
10. Arnie's Boy (15) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: A W Maley
353434343634
11. Excaro (7) J: Shaun O'donnell (55.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
615151614551
12. Mini Winnie (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55.5kg) T: Q R Jackson
5555.54.35
13. Tonkatuff (10) J: Ryan Hill (55.5kg) T: B P Graham
353434343634
14. Great Charade (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: T M Andrews
1513121311.612
15. One Point Lady (13) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (55kg) T: C R Green
16. Sluice Box (5) J: Peter Knuckey (55kg) T: A W Maley
1111111111.211

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 6:57pm (AEDT)

(12) Mini Winnie is flying, winning two on the bounce before bumping into the smart Billy Ain’t Silly last start. Tinsnip was back in 3rd on that occasion and that horse then came out and won last weekend. Needs a good ride from barrier 8 but if he can get one, he’ll be very hard to beat again.

(4) Staralign comes to town from Kalgoorlie and he’s been good in his two runs back from a spell. Draws wide but they wouldn’t be bringing him here if he wasn’t a chance.

(5) Diablerie has a poor record at the track and distance but his past couple of runs have actually been quite god. He’s come from last or near last on both occasions and let down strongly to run 4th. Drawn closer in barrier 4 today so doesn’t have to be so far off the pace and if within striking distance, can definitely run a good race.

Tip: (12) Mini Winnie $5.50 Unibet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mini Winnie

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

Advertisement Moneyball
Advertisement WinnersBet
Advertisement BetDeluxe

More in Racing Tips