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Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, July 10th

The John Monash Stakes headlines racing at Caulfield and Trent Crebbin has gone value hunting.

caulfield racing tips

The Group 3 John Monash Stakes headlines a good card at Caulfield on Saturday, where all eyes will be on Jamie Kah and her quest to ride 100 metro winners.

Trent Crebbin has done the form and has found plenty of roughies in his selections, including his best value at $81 in the last.

The track is rated a soft 5 and the rail is true.

Best Bet- Race 7 (3) Think ‘n’ Fly (save Chief Altony)

Best Value- Race 9 (6) Easy Beast

PlayUp

192210

Race 1

Neds Hcp (1100m)
11:50am (AEDT)

Race 1

Neds Hcp (1100m)
11:50am (AEDT)

1. Vianello (7) J: Ben Melham (59kg) T: James Cummings
2. Zapateo (4) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings
2.252.222.22.152
3. Shame For Fame (6) J: Patrick Moloney (57.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
8.58.598.599
4. Blazing Bay (11) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (57kg) T: S C Bottomley
818181818381
5. Cherrypick (3) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: P G Moody
131515151415
6. First Division (1) J: Michael Poy (57kg) T: Henry Dwyer
7.578.5887.5
7. Jillette (5) J: Thomas Stockdale (57kg) T: M & L Cerchi
464141414541
8. Lady Minstrel (9) J: Beau Mertens (57kg) T: Julius Sandhu
9. Libiamo (10) J: Billy Egan (57kg) T: G M Begg
1313181713.615
10. Viviane (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
3.83.83.63.83.53.6
11. Give Me Reward (2) J: Craig Newitt (55.5kg) T: M Croston & G Gilmour
8191201126131126

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 11:51am (AEDT)

Unless a first starter really shows up on debut, I think this is a race in two. (1) Zapateo was a very good winner on debut at Geelong, coming from a long way back to win well. The market has liked that race, finding plenty of horses out of it, but the form hasn’t really stacked up, with Nasdana, Ruby Mockingbird and Grey At The Ready all well beaten at their next start.

(10) Viviane should settle a fair way in front of the favourite but was a touch disappointing last start at this T/D when sitting wide but not doing much late. The first up run behind Argentia was excellent and good enough to win here. Perhaps a firmer track will be to her liking.

At the current prices I’m happy to stay out and try to ascertain a pattern- if Zapateo comes from worse than midfield to win the track should be playing fine.

Tip: (1) Zapateo- $2.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

192210

Race 2

Neds Filter Form Hcp (1100m)
12:25pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Neds Filter Form Hcp (1100m)
12:25pm (AEDT)

1. Zipping Boy (3) J: Ms Alana Kelly (63.5kg) T: Jerome Hunter
99101010.29
2. All Of Brighton (7) J: Jacob Opperman (57kg) T: Patrick Payne
4.54.44.44.64.44.4
3. Pioneer River (5) J: Brett Prebble (55kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
7.57.577.57.17.5
4. Deep Speed (9) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
2.92.82.833.052.7
5. Mr Moppett (8) J: Will Price (54kg) T: P A Sweeney
343151413831
6. Dickin Medal (1) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: James Cummings
9999.589.5
7. Sacred Palace (6) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: L Smith
10109.51010.210
8. Brazen Bully (4) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (54kg) T: A & S Freedman
9.5109.59.58.410
9. Hilverston (10) J: Lachlan Neindorf (54kg) T: C W Mcdonald
81819181101101
10. Keep On Fighting (2) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: G M Moloney

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

I know he’s got to concede a lot of weight but I couldn’t believe (1) Zipping Boy went up $10, coming off three straight wins. He had the favours but still did well to hold off Express Pass at Sandown, who won well his next start, and Zipping Boy is 4/4 at 1100m. Alana Kelly is riding well at the moment, I think the horse will lead, and even with the weight he’ll take some running down.

(4) Deep Speed is the threat. He won his first two starts stylishly, although the form out of all his runs last prep have been poor. He beat Show Some Decorum at The Valley who is a proper bm64 horse, ran 3rd to Shelby Cobra at Flemington who has done nothing since, and 2nd to Ocean Beyond before a spell who has done nothing since. Looks talented and with 6kg off Zipping Boy and Kah on, he’ll be hard to beat.

(2) All Of Brighton will improve out to 1100m but I much prefer him at Flemington and he’s been up a long time.

(8) Brazen Bully walked in on the synthetic first up and gets in with 51kg with a beautiful map. He’s been backed early but could still be backed at double figures.

Having a decent bet each way Zipping Boy and something small each way Brazen Bully, trying to get Deep Speed beaten.

Tip: (1) Zipping Boy- $10.20 at Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (8) Brazen Bully- $11.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 unit E/W Zipping Boy, 0.25 units E/W Brazen Bully

192210

Race 3

Premier Signs (Bm78) (1100m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Premier Signs (Bm78) (1100m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

1. Tony Nicconi (8) J: Thomas Stockdale (61kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
1919202116.619
2. Whipcracker Way (5) J: Lachlan King (60kg) T: P Stokes
3. Contalmaison (3) J: Ms Alana Kelly (58.5kg) T: Cheryl Weller
1616171817.217
4. Meteorite (10) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (58.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
5.554.85.55.45
5. Kalkarni Royale (1) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: K L Corstens
6. Montenegro Man (13) J: Jacob Opperman (58kg) T: M A Kavanagh
5.55.5554.65
7. Melodeon (11) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (57.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
353441414341
8. Kalashani Lad (7) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: T T Walsh
273134312734
9. Zorro's Dream (6) J: Will Price (57kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
3.73.73.73.93.83.6
10. La Vina (9) J: Brett Prebble (56.5kg) T: L Smith
5.55.54.85.55.55
11. Cliffs Of Belaura (12) J: Jamie Mott (56kg) T: John Mcardle
12. Gold Spark (14) J: Fred Kersley (56kg) T: Nick Ryan
121111121111
13. La Bella Costa (4) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: M M Laurie
191719211719
14. Madam Superior (2) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: M Cornish & Ms D Gaskin
2726212626.523

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(9) Zorro’s Dream doesn’t win out of turn but is racing very well and looks nicely placed here. I don’t think 1000m is his ideal trip but he was only nabbed by Express Pass very late last start, and the start prior at Geelong he was a very good run from back in the field. He gets a 3kg weight swing on Kalkarni Royale from that race and a good draw.

(5) Kalkarni Royale has become quite consistent around this level and was good at this T/D last start in bm84 grade against the mares. I thought she got all the favours at Geelong with a longer SP than Zorro’s Dream, but from barrier 1 could lead again.

(4) Meteorite is a tricky one. He hasn’t been leading this prep, almost ridden midfield at two starts in. The win last start was good, but I’m very wary here. Go back to last prep, he had that huge 955m win, then won on a heavy track which seemed to cook him and he was below his best for the next three runs. This prep, he was okay first up, won on a heavy track 2nd up, and now goes out to 1100m. Enough to be against.

(14) Madam Superior isn’t the worst at huge odds. She was rock solid last start, only 1L off Kalkarni Royale (who admittedly had a tougher run) but does meet her 1.5kg better, keeps Froggy who is riding big priced winners everywhere and maps for a beautiful run from barrier 2. $34/8 is a big price.

Tip: (9) Zorro’s Dream- $3.90 at Ladbrokes

Value: (14) Madam Superior- $34.00/8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Zorro’s Dream, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Madam Superior

192210

Race 4

Michael Fox Hcp (1100m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Michael Fox Hcp (1100m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

1. Forever Free (5) J: Ms Alana Kelly (60kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
9999.598.5
2. Archipeta Beach (11) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: John Mcardle
3. Miss Divine Em (15) J: Thomas Stockdale (57kg) T: Patrick Payne
4. Zesty Belle (13) J: Jacob Opperman (56.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
55.55.565.65.5
5. Continuance (6) J: Lachlan Neindorf (56kg) T: L Smith
6. Yosemite (1) J: Lachlan King (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
343434343334
7. Hai Sun (3) J: Dean Yendall (55.5kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
5.55.55.55.55.55.5
8. Madame Bolli (9) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (55.5kg) T: J T Conlan
1313111214.213
9. Rose Of Sebring (7) J: Will Price (55.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
343434343534
10. Sugartown (12) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55.5kg) T: D T O'brien
332.93.12.83.1
11. Reite Den Blitz (14) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (54.5kg) T: Scott Brunton
12. Ocean's Jen (10) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: D J Arnold
13. Belsielle (4) J: Brett Prebble (54kg) T: David & Coral Feek
1211121112.212
14. Musk Lollie (16) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: Ms N Burke
262621262623
15. Astronomicelle (2) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (54kg) T: C F Hyland
9.599109.49.5
16. Lady Cumberland (8) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: Dean Larsson

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(10) Sugartown was disappointing in a strong 3yo race down the straight last start behind Curran when $4.40. She raced keen and didn’t finish off there, and perhaps around a bend will be better suited. The two wins prior were good and she gets Kah on.

(1) Forever Free keeps racing well despite often not leading (as she used to have to do) but up to 1100m is some query, and she gets up in the weights. The 3rd to Malkovich last start reads well.

(4) Zesty Belle won her first two last prep but I don’t think she beat much. The $2.80 SP, 2.4L defeat to Yulong Command ties in Sugartown with that 3yo sprinting line. Map is a bit tricky for Opperman who has never ridden at Caulfield.

(15) Astronomicelle ties in with Sugartown through Moor Wanted, the ‘winning’ margins 5.5L and 2.4L respectively. She’s racing very well and the 3rd to Diamonds at Sale three back reads well and again ties in to Hai Sun through Bubbly Lass. Notably, she gets in with 51kg and maps for a decent run from 2. Don’t love Carleen having to find a gap but at $10.00 she can run well.

Tip: (15) Astronomicelle- $10.00/3.20 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Astronomicelle

192210

Race 5

Mrc Membership Renewal (Bm78) (2000m)
2:15pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Mrc Membership Renewal (Bm78) (2000m)
2:15pm (AEDT)

1. Chuck A Luck (13) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
2. Falls (14) J: Ms Alana Kelly (59kg) T: M C Kent
1313141511.213
3. Zachaz (11) J: Ethan Brown (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
54.84.64.85.14.8
4. Excelman (9) J: Thomas Stockdale (58.5kg) T: Richard Laming
99999.29
5. Over The Sky (5) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
6. Tooradin (4) J: Ben Melham (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4.243.94.23.94
7. Yulong Captain (10) J: Jamie Mott (58.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
343451414141
8. Irish Playboy (6) J: Michael Poy (57.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer
1718181917.618
9. Kings Full (2) J: Dean Yendall (57.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell
464151514941
10. Bondi Sands (18) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: D T O'brien
11. Converging (19) J: Will Price (57kg) T: Matthew Cumani
12. Gundown (8) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (57kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
13. Influential Girl (1) J: Lachlan Neindorf (57kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
516167616571
14. Jayrod Too (3) J: Beau Mertens (57kg) T: Julius Sandhu
15. Relucent (7) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: C J Waller
554.854.75
16. Reflect The Stars (16) J: Fred Kersley (56kg) T: D T O'brien
1111101210.811
17. Smokin' Pierro (12) J: Harry Coffey (57kg) T: Michelle Payne
1717182118.617
18. Nudge Bar (17) J: Thomas Stockdale (56kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
19. Shakespeare (15) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (54kg) T: Patrick Payne
1313121313.213

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

(6) Tooradin on top who looks ready to peak 4th up at 2000m. He won his first two this prep nicely and I’m happy to forgive last start when 2nd to Falls, who is a very good wet tracker and did lead on that biased Sandown track. He mixed his form in his first prep at this distance range, but I’ve got no issue with him at 2000m- I think he’s come back a better horse and was end of prep for his last three last prep. Melham rides, which suggests he’s Maher/Eustace’s best chance, the map is perfect, and a soft track, rather than heavy, is ideal.

(3) Zachaz is the other Maher/Eustace runner who should run well. He hit the line well in the Swan Hill Cup when not really suited back to 1600m. Up to 2000m now 4th up, he’ll be charging late but will have to run down Tooradin.

(4) Excelman bolted in under an awesome J Kah ride two back but was a touch plain last start, and loses Kah for Stockdale from a tricky barrier.

(16) Reflect The Stars races well 2nd up and at 2000m but will continue to improve and I’d have thought Olly would be on if she was ready.

Keen Tooradin- with the map favours he gets I’d be shocked if he misses a place and having a good bet 1×2 as a result.

Tip: (6) Tooradin- $5.00/2.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tooradin, 2 units PLC Tooradin

192210

Race 6

Boxing Challenge 7/8 Hcp (2000m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Boxing Challenge 7/8 Hcp (2000m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

1. Namakwa (15) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2. Vibrant Glider (10) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: P Stokes
7.57.57.57.57.57.5
3. Montia (11) J: Harry Coffey (55.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
2121262119.821
4. Stats (9) J: Michael Poy (55kg) T: G Eurell
232621262026
5. Flossing (6) J: Craig Newitt (54.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
77776.17
6. Mevius (7) J: Neil Farley (54.5kg) T: Thomas Carberry
414151414741
7. Red Santa (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.152.22.152.12.352.15
8. Za'ex (8) J: Brett Prebble (54.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson
181920212021
9. Uniquely (14) J: Will Price (54kg) T: Dan O'sullivan
1917182118.216
10. Cru Classe (13) J: Lachlan Neindorf (54kg) T: Patrick Payne
1919192119.221
11. Aznavour (1) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: Archie Alexander
1920192119.219
12. Heleva Deel (4) J: Ms Alana Kelly (54kg) T: Henry Dwyer
191818212117
13. Myers Reward (3) J: Dean Holland (54kg) T: K L Corstens
353434413334
14. Swindon Lass (16) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: Matthew Brown
515151515561
15. Next Ride (5) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: K & K Keys
616167615551
16. Minority Of One (12) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (54kg) T: Mark Stephenson
201151151101161201

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

Yet another one of these 3yo staying races. (7) Red Santa went to Sydney and chased home Wicklow in his last two after failing behind Rosseau at this T/D three back. Gets Kah from barrier 2 and no weight, looks hardest to beat.

(1) Namakwa can improve off last start if he rolls along like he did winning two back.

At odds, and fitting the recent trends, is (12) Heleva Deel. The synthetic to turf transition has worked many times this Winter, notably with Namakwa two back, and horses claiming below the minimum has also been profitable. Heleva Deel looks suited up to 2000m after chasing stoutly on the synthetic last start over 1600m, and drops a whopping 12kg in weight with Alana Kelly claiming 3kg. Gets a lovely run from barrier 4 and at $23 I’d rather follow the trends than back one of the numbers that keep racing against each other week in week out.

 

Tip: (12) Heleva Deel- $23.00/6.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Heleva Deel

192210

Race 7

Catanachs Jewellers (Bm84) (1700m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Catanachs Jewellers (Bm84) (1700m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

1. Ballet Master (4) J: Ethan Brown (59.5kg) T: C F Hyland
2. Strategic Phil (11) J: Billy Egan (59kg) T: D R Brideoake
111111111012
3. Think 'N' Fly (7) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
3.63.63.53.63.653.6
4. Scottish Dancer (10) J: Jack Hill (57.5kg) T: Andrew Bobbin
98.58.58.58.28.5
5. Vegas Knight (12) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: C W Little
6. Chantrea (6) J: Lachlan Neindorf (57kg) T: L Smith
7. Thought Of That (3) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.576.576.76.5
8. Betcha Flying (1) J: Damien Thornton (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
1817191916.217
9. Chief Altony (5) J: Thomas Stockdale (56.5kg) T: Alexander Rae
332.83.13.152.9
10. Jittery Jack (9) J: Lachlan King (54.5kg) T: J D Matheson
202126262023
11. Tan Check (2) J: Dean Holland (54kg) T: J S Bull
1615151614.416
12. Firstclass Dreamer (8) J: Ms Alana Kelly (54kg) T: Matthew Brown
344141414341

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on this being a two horse race. (3) Think ‘n’ Fly looks ready to peak 3rd up, where he’s won 2 from 2. Was rock solid first up behind Biometric and Adelaide Ace, and ran 2nd to Degraves last start when hampered late and protesting. Should sit midfield and be hard to beat.

(9) Chief Altony is the obvious danger. He should’ve won two back and was given a lovely ride last start at Sandown to win well. Gets in with 54.5kg and if Stockdale gives him another 10/10 he’ll be right in the finish. A good track is perhaps a slight query and the stable have said he prefers some give.

(7) Thought Of That clear next best, he was good first up but just doesn’t win and Chief Altony was a better run (and SP’d $2.00) in that race.

Backing Think ‘n’ Fly, making Chief Altony a small result/saving depending on price. Confident one wins.

 

Tip: (3) Think ‘n’ Fly- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Saver: (9) Chief Altony- $4.05 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Think ‘n’ Fly, 1 unit WIN Chief Altony

192210

Race 8

Neds Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m)
4:10pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Neds Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m)
4:10pm (AEDT)

1. Viridine (7) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: James Cummings
4.24.244.44.054.4
2. Tactical Advantage (2) J: Craig Newitt (58.5kg) T: K A Lees
516161515561
3. Order Of Command (12) J: Jamie Mott (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien
131213151212
4. Ashlor (4) J: Jack Martin (58.5kg) T: D J Mccarthy
919110181101101
5. William Thomas (1) J: Fred Kersley (58.5kg) T: J W Price
1312131513.214
6. Red Can Man (5) J: Ben Melham (58.5kg) T: D R Brideoake
10109.5109.110
7. Inn Keeper (8) J: Dean Holland (58.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
819115181101101
8. I Am Someone (6) J: Ethan Brown (58.5kg) T: M M Laurie
9. Dexelation (3) J: Harry Coffey (58.5kg) T: R & C Jolly
464141414341
10. Malkovich (10) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58kg) T: Bjorn Baker
2.52.52.42.52.552.5
11. Propelle (11) J: Dean Yendall (56.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
343441414041
12. Villami (9) J: Damien Thornton (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
5.55.555.55.35.5

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Feature of the day is a tricky 1100m sprint. (12) Villami has a great fresh record with 3 wins from 4 starts. She was too fast for California Zimbol and Pandemic first up last prep, conceding both weight, before chasing Ancestry. I think she probably holds out Malkovich for the lead and under WFA she gets in well with 56.5kg.

(10) Malkovich steps out to 1100m after winning well with the big weight here over 1000m last start. Kah goes on and this is probably her best chance all day. He’s got a good 1100m record, but I probably prefer him at 1000m and this is harder than last start.

(3) Order Of Command races well fresh but very likely goes back from the gate and will need to run the leaders down. First up last prep he ran 3rd at group 3 level to California Zimbol, which obviously ties in. The run in The Galaxy behind Eduardo would win this and I’m a bit surprised Olly has chosen Viridine.

(2) Tactical Advantage isn’t the worst. If he was 3rd up here he’d be my best value of the day. His run first up was better than it looked in the worst ground with a big weight. The trial since was very good and Froggy on at odds is very scary.

(6) Red Can Man can definitely improve on a drier track and around a bend. Would’ve liked him up in trip though.

Tip: (12) Villami- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Value: (2) Tactical Advantage- $46.00/9.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Villami, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Tactical Advantage

192210

Race 9

Les Taggart Bars Closed-Bm84 (1400m)
4:42pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Les Taggart Bars Closed-Bm84 (1400m)
4:42pm (AEDT)

1. Shot Of Irish (11) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (62.5kg) T: Scott Brunton
615167716561
2. Titan Blinders (10) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (61.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
2021192120.519
3. Viral (15) J: Ben Melham (61.5kg) T: D T O'brien
2021191919.221
4. Mr Exclusive (6) J: Thomas Stockdale (60kg) T: Matthew Brown
414151414141
5. Great Duchess (7) J: Lachlan King (59.5kg) T: G Eurell
615151515561
6. Easy Beast (5) J: Dean Holland (59kg) T: Richard Laming
919110110110181
7. Mr Tipla (14) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
1615161515.615
8. Jumbo Ozaki (2) J: Fred Kersley (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien
9.510121110.210
9. Do You Reckon (8) J: Beau Mertens (58kg) T: Julius Sandhu
464151514741
10. Floating Artist (4) J: Ethan Brown (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
414141515341
11. Fundraiser (18) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
12. Ammoudi Bay (3) J: Damien Thornton (57.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
515151515351
13. Grinzinger Allee (13) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57kg) T: D T O'brien
3.33.43.33.53.43.5
14. Reckoning (1) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: Nick Ryan
1819181917.818
15. Arkham Knight (20) J: Will Price (56.5kg) T: J F Macmillan
1717181918.418
16. King Magnus (9) J: Ms Alana Kelly (56.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
9.59.59109.69.5
17. Scantoon (12) J: Billy Egan (56kg) T: G M Begg
3.73.73.73.93.353.7
18. Seberate (19) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
19. Global Gift (17) J: Harry Coffey (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
20. Wicklow Town (16) J: Will Price (55.5kg) T: Julie Scott

Odds Last Updated: July 10, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

Tough race. I’m a big fan of (13) Grinzinger Allee and have been for some time. I loved his win at the end of last prep, really charging late to run down Holbein and Fundraiser off a brutal tempo. The first up run splitting Rule The World and Regardsmaree certainly reads well, but he will have to circle the field and run them down.

At huge odds, (6) Easy Beast isn’t completely hopeless. He was given none in the Golden Topaz, sitting 3 wide no cover midfield. His 2nd up record is very good with 5 quinellas from 7 starts, and he’s had a 1350m trial since, which he won (was ridden out). 2nd up last prep he ran 2nd  at this T/D to Rich Hips, conceding her 3kg, and she’s since a dual group 3 winner. Senior rider on, drawn beautifully, should be right on speed and outrun the $81.

(8) Jumbo Ozaki was good first up off a long spell behind Corner Pocket. He generally races very well 2nd up and maps to do no work from 2.

(7) Mr Tipla will run well again. Was good in the Corner Pocket race and never runs poorly.

Backing Easy Beast 1×3, saving Grinzinger Allee to break even. Wouldn’t be shocked if he drifted to $4 with the map.

Tip: (6) Easy Beast- $81.00/21.00 at Ladbrokes

Saver: (13) Grinzinger Allee- $3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Easy Beast, 0.5 units WIN Grinzinger Allee

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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