Caulfield Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 13th

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(6) Capital Legend returned from a year off and a gelding operation first up at 1533m and was an excellent return at The Valley, getting back and charging late to just miss the leader. He meets Rhinoceros 1.5kg better at the weights and should have more improvement to come with D Lane taking the ride.

(1) Rhinoceros was a good winner there and is a good on pace horse at the mile. He beat Blackcomb three back at Sandown who should’ve won the Hill Smith Stakes at Morphettville on Saturday.

(4) Dark Rebel was poor in the Gloaming last start but his run in the Dulcify two back when only beaten 2.1L by Giannis and Tiger Of Malay is good form for this.

(3) Cheerful Moment next best off a good run in a bunched finish at Flemington last start.

Tip: (6) Capital Legend- $3.90 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Does look (3) Floating Artist’s race to lose. He’s very progressive and was dominant last start at Sandown, sitting on speed and racing away to win very softly in some very good late splits. They scratched from the Herbert Power where he was favourite over Delphi which is a much stronger race than this. Looks suited to 2000m and hard to beat.

(1) Secret Blaze looks the clear danger coming off a good win in the JRA Cup. His form is easily tie-inable with Floating Artist through Defibrillate. Off margins and SP’s, Secret Blaze is a big chance, I just think Floating Artist has huge scope to improve again.

(2) Duais was a bit plain but unsuited by a muddling tempo in the Hill Stakes behind Think It Over but good at Newcastle on resumption.

Backing Floating Artist but I’ll take BSP and hope we get a bit better price.

Tip: (3) Floating Artist- $1.90 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Floating Artist (Betfair Starting Price)

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(9) Alcyone maps to get the run of the race over a few rivals which might be the difference. He won well first up and hit the line nicely behind Mr Brightside last start at Flemington.

(6) King’s Charisma can run a race at double figures. He was well backed into $4.20 first up in Australia at Sandown and didn’t get a whole lot of room in the straight. I liked his last 100m and work through the line, out to 2000m is a big tick and some give in the track should be to his liking. Drawn barrier 3 he can land just behind the speed.

(2) El Misk was good in the same race from a fair way back, running on well. He was first up in Australia too and can improve up in trip. Having something on him at big odds.

Tip: (6) King’s Charisma- $16.00/4.20 at TAB

Value: (2) El Misk- $41.00/9.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W King’s Charisma, 0.25 units E/W El Misk

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

Something on (3) Emissary here. The former UK galloper was very good in the race at Sandown that King’s Charisma comes out of, just nosed out for 2nd. He went to the Benalla Cup and started $3.20F but pulled up lame on a firm deck in a fast race. If he’s come through that okay, he can improve again here and 2400m on a track with give is ideal. He’ll need a bit of luck from 2 but will be just behind the speed and has the ability.

(2) Smokin’ Romans has had a big gap between runs but Maher/Eustace stayers can do that often and still be fully fit. He had a great last prep and kept rising to the occasion. Maps well and if he’s here to play he’ll be in the finish.

(5) Taramansour is flying and coming off a few strong wins in a row, including over Lunar Flare two back.

Tip: (3) Emissary- $8.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Emissary

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

(7) Imperial Lad looks a great bet from the map. He looks to find the front with Linda on and very little pressure. He was eased out of the speed in a fast race last start at The Valley over 1200m and it was basically a non-event from there, beaten a long way by Lombardo. His form prior was excellent, beaten 2.4L by Ayrton at this T/D and 1.2L by Elephant at this T/D before that. Linda should rate him beautifully and if he returns to that form he’ll be very hard to beat here. Keen- and he should start shorter.

(9) Frankie Pinot will be the big closer. He’s flying this prep and charged home from last to just miss Sirileo Miss last start, beating home Embolism. It’s just how big a head start he gives the leaders from a wide barrier.

(12) Il Affare is a NZ mare with good formlines around the likes of Amerelinha but could potentially need the run first up over 1400m, drawn wide for Waller and likely to go back.

Tip: (7) Imperial Lad- $13.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Imperial Lad

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Fascinating race the Blue Sapphire. (1) Profiteer was well backed in the Moir at WFA first up but got into an awkward spot after being unable to cross Ballistic Lover who kicked up heavily and Swats That who moved up 3 wide mid-race, which left the 3yo in a very uncomfortable spot. He was only beaten 2.6L and there doesn’t look anything that can match him early here, especially as he’s drawn better. 1200m is a query but he did split Anamoe and Home Affairs in a Todman, and I think this horse can run the trip if he’s allowed to relax early, which he should be able to do.

(9) Extreme Warrior was smashed into $1.16 first up at Echuca and bolted in, running some good late sectionals. He did run 2nd to General Beau at 1000m as a 2yo and pulled up with a throat issue at 1100m in the Prelude. Keen to see him at 1200m and he maps for a good run midfield.

(11) Growl looks the best roughie. He started shorter than Prowling when they met at Sandown and was a very soft maiden winner at Ballarat. The margin was only a length but only saw clear air at the 100m and did it under hands and heels- he had 4-5L on that field talent wise.

Building a book around those three and keen we get a result.

Tip: (1) Profiteer- $2.95 at BoomBet

Also Backing: (9) Extreme Warrior- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (11) Growl- $41.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Profiteer, 1 unit WIN Extreme Warrior, 0.25 units E/W Growl

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

Good to see the Thousand Guineas back on the Wednesday in my opinion and I’m with one of the Sydney fillies in (2) Hinged. She comes out of the Flight Stakes and charged home along the rails to just miss Never Been Kissed, who started $3.90 and ran 2nd to Profondo in the Spring Champion. I think it’s clearly the best form line, she’ll relish any give in the ground and she just needs to slot in from out wide to be winning here. Hoping they go forward as she has in the past and lands just behind the leaders drawn outside her.

(10) Barb Raider is a good filly and has paid up the late fee to come here. She drops back from a solidly run 1800m where she started $1.65 and won well. She’ll be strong late behind a decent speed.

(6) Zouzarella got a long way back and hit the line for 2nd in the Jim Moloney last start. It was a fast run race but her last 200m wasn’t great compared to the day- just the 65th fastest. I thought she looked the winner inside the 200m and couldn’t sustain her run do despite having to chase a long way out, I’ve got queries on her at 1600m.

(12) Achira is the blowout. She actually beat Hinged home two back in the Dulcify by a narrow margin but did have a much cosier run in transit as Hinged was 3 wide no cover. Her run prior at Hawkesbury was solid when 2nd to Von Trapp who was very well backed in the Flight. She got the maiden out the way last start and at $91 I’ll have a tiny spec on her.

Tip: (2) Hinged- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Value: (12) Achira- $91.00/21.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Hinged, 0.25 units E/W Achira

Odds Last Updated: October 13, 2021, 5:46pm (AEDT)

(9) Sirileo Miss will be hard to beat in the last. She’s come back super this prep winning both runs at 1400m, and up to the mile is ideal. She had a nice run but beat Frankie Pinot and Embolism last start in a fast race with 58.5kg. Drawn 4, she can land 1-1 and win again.

(6) Harmony Rose comes out of the Epsom where she had to do way too much work wide on a very fast speed and dropped right out, beaten 9.3L. It was a race dominated by the swoopers and if she’s come through that she can win.

(2) Starelle hit the line well first up behind Annavisto. She was no match for Harmony Rose when they met over 2000m in Sydney and will likely get back from a wide gate but has come back well.

(1) Only Words next best out of the Stocks.

Tip: (9) Sirileo Miss- $2.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Sirileo Miss