Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, July 31st

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

No doubt (1) Jigsaw is the horse to beat, and he’s been $1.85 into $1.65 which I think is a bit too short to be steaming into. He was far too good first up at Caulfield when backed into $1.65 late, and he maps well again. Has to carry 60kg and drops back to 1000m which are the knocks, and I think we can potentially try and get him beat at the odds on.

(3) Frostin’ is a horse I’ve always had some time for- his win at Bendigo when leading all the way was good in a maiden, and his run after that coming from near last to run 2nd to Starry Legend which was strong form at the time. He’s been gelded, Lane takes the ride which is interesting and although the barrier isn’t ideal, he doesn’t have to be completely negative.

(4) Direct is the other that can run well. He has raced at this T/D on debut where he went well behind Paulele. The run in the Silver Slipper was very good behind Home Affairs, and even the Todman run, beaten 3.6L by Anamoe is strong form. Drawn 2, I expect Bowditch to hunt up and try to make Jigsaw work as much as possible early.

 

Tip: (3) Frostin’- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Direct- $6.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Frostin, 0.5 units WIN Direct

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

One of the more open filly’s races, with plenty (soon to be 3yo’s) resuming. Plenty of these have raced against each other, it’ll come down to who has made that improvement during their spells.

(5) Tayla’s Moment seems a big price at $26. She beat home the current favourite, Frost Flowers, in the Blue Diamond Preview at Caulfield last prep before failing in the Prelude. She did start $12 to Frost Flowers’ $1.65 in the Preview, but she’s had the benefit of a first up run where she was solid when wide on speed. Lane sticks with her and if she can get across from the gate she’ll outrun her SP.

(11) Widaad is the other roughie that can run well. Her debut win at Wangaratta was quite good on speed, and the 2nd horse Stalking has since run well at Flemington. Another at $26 that can outrun her SP.

(10) Sweet Mary bolted in on debut at Casterton. This is much harder and she drops back to 1000m but looks very talented.

(3) Tycoon Humma is a good filly but the stable’s comments seem to indicate she’s not quite ready, and she will get back in the field.

Tayla’s Moment has been scratched, leaving Widaad as the only play.

Tip: (11) Widaad- $26.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Widaad

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

Does look a race in two here. (4) Hi Stranger is the horse to beat, it just depends where he gets to on the map. Given there are 5 stayers resuming in a field of 9, he should be able to settle in front of most of them and ideally land 1-1. If that occurs, he should be winning. He was 1200m up to 1600m last start and should’ve finished closer to Bartholomeu Dias, beating home Dice Roll in a strong field.

(3) No Effort is the danger. Not sure about her dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but she’s flying this mare and is very tough to get past. The wetter the better and with 52kg on her back she’ll take plenty of running down again and make this a strong 1600m.

(9) Falls also drops back from 2000m to 1600m which I don’t think is a huge negative. Will apply pressure up front and like No Effort, the wetter the better.

Backing Hi Stranger, just needs a bit of intent early to avoid being buried behind the stayers, and saving No Effort who is hard to drop off.

 

Tip: (4) Hi Stranger- $3.70 at Sportsbet

Saver: (3) No Effort- $4.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Hi Stranger, 1 unit WIN No Effort

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 2:31pm (AEDT)

This race all revolves around (1) Buckhurst, because if he’s ready to go he’ll make a mess of these. He’s a high class import who has beaten Sir Dragonet at the trip and ran 7th beaten 3.4L in a Caulfield Cup despite playing bumper cars in the straight. None of the other horses in this field could dream of those heights. He’s been gelded since then and a soft, somewhat drying track looks ideal. Market will absolutely be the guide, if he’s firm in the last 15 minutes of betting he could blow these away.

(2) Dr Drill is the danger. He looks ready to win after a good effort behind Furrion last start at Flemington. Gets a big jockey switch with Kah replacing Madison Llyod and if Buckhurst isn’t here to play, he’ll be hard to beat.

(8 Nudge Bar is flying but this is a massive step up in grade and he’d need a savagely biased track to measure up.

(3) Mahamedeis was unlucky last week and can run well but I think he might be looking for the jumps.

Market key with Buckhurst. If he’s $4 into $3 before the jump, I’d almost be doubling my bet because if he’s fit and anywhere near his best, they won’t beat him.

Tip: (1) Buckhurst- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Buckhurst

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

Can’t wait to see (1) I’m Thunderstruck again after a monstrous win last start at Flemington, getting back off a good tempo and charging home to win by 4 lengths. This is a much different set up however- there isn’t nearly as much tempo on paper and he has to contend with The Valley track as opposed to Flemington. The gallop here during the week looked fine, and he will be hard to beat again, but I think there’s an angle to play against him.

(5) Tuvalu is going to improve lengths off the first up run. He opened favourite against I’m Thunderstruck first up but drifted out to $5.50, suggesting he might have needed the run. I thought his effort was great- he sat close to a hot tempo, looked in strife but his last 100m and through the line was very good to hold down 2nd. With the run under his belt and the lack of pressure, I think he goes straight to the lead, and around this track he’ll be much harder to run down, with a nice 3kg weight swing in his favour as well.

I’d be incredibly shocked if one of the two don’t win, but (2) Seiners Express has done nothing wrong and is probably a touch over the odds.

Very scary taking on I’m Thunderstruck but I think Tuvalu can cause the upset.

Tip: (5) Tuvalu- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Tuvalu

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Tricky little mare’s race. (6) Leale could be suited around The Valley. She was rock solid in the main lead up at Sandown in a race where the trifecta all came from worse than midfield. She was beaten 3L there, but was 4 weeks between runs and gets Teo on who is a great front running rider. She likely lands OSL and given she started $5.50 last start, the $12 available here seems overs.

(10) White Hibiscus looks ready to peak 3rd up. She’s the big weight dropper from the lead up, getting in with 54.5kg with Willo on board. Drawn nicely in barrier 6, if she can settle closer she’ll be hard to hold out.

(3) Ghodeleine won that race thanks to a beautiful ride by Madison Lloyd. She sticks here, but the barrier is tricky around The Valley and she’ll have to get a fair way back. Can definitely win again, but will need another great ride.

(1) Betcha Flying comes out of a good race against the boys, running 3rd to Scottish Dancer. Has to carry 59.5kg after the claim but the map is okay if Stockdale uses the draw and she’s definitely good enough despite the poor strike rate.

Tip: (6) Leale- $12.00/3.80 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (10) White Hibiscus- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Leale, 0.5 units WIN White Hibiscus

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Incredibly open race. (4) Prince Ziggy gets a lovely run on the map from barrier 4 with Yendall replacing Opperman. He was given too negative a ride at Cranbourne but ripped home in the 2nd fastest last 200m of the meeting on the heavy 10 track. The win prior at Swan Hill in an easier race was dominant and with a few dangers drawn off the track, he might get the right run to knock them off.

(5) Smokin’ Romans is flying- he was a moral beaten two back by Dirty Deeds and atoned nicely to knock off Vegas Knight over 2100m last start. Don’t think 2500m will be much of an issue and Kah on certainly helps, it’s just whether she can get across and find a good spot from the carpark draw because there is a bit of pressure.

(6) Mr Mooj is going well- the win two back was good when getting a nice trail, and perhaps the weight just got to him late last start when leading. Drops 4kg from that run going up in grade, and he might be better with a sit if Will Price can get one.

(7) Heir To The Throne comes into play if the track gets into the heavy range. He’s going well but does have to jump from 1600m to 2500m. His form ties in with a lot of these, he’d just prefer a wet track.

Tip: (4) Prince Ziggy- $19.00/4.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Prince Ziggy

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

Siding with (11) Capricorn Ridge on the quick backup. He was given far too negative of a ride last week at Caulfield, given too much to do between the 800-400m from near last. The win prior on a heavy track was dominant and back to 2000m is no issue. With a better ride he can run much better than the $12 available, especially considering he started $3.90 last week.

(4) Red Santa was given every possible chance by Kah last start and scraped in from barrier 2. She’ll need to be at her best to give the horse a similar run from barrier 16 and I’m inclined to be against.

(3) Literati is consistent in these races and does map well with Melham taking the ride from barrier 2.

(5) Tintinwin looks ready for 2000m now and will push forward and potentially lead these.

Tip: (11) Capricorn Ridge- $12.00/3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Capricorn Ridge

Odds Last Updated: July 31, 2021, 5:41pm (AEDT)

Quite keen on (1) Imperial Lad here who looks a stupid price at $9. We were with him first up at Geelong and despite drifting quite badly, he was too strong on speed. He’s incredibly consistent, never missing the trifecta last prep, and 2nd up he was beaten 1.5L by Second Slip, finishing ahead of Indispensable who has been racing very well in Queensland. He’s clearly up to bm70 grade, can only improve off last start and the other key here is the map. He gets an outstanding run, very likely leading with minimal pressure, gets probably the most in form apprentice on in Alana Kelly meaning he’s well in at the weights, and he’s $9/3.20. Hoping to finish strong with a good lash each way.

(18) Flash Flood needs a couple more scratchings to make the field, but if he does, he has to be a danger. He’s got upside unlike most of these and can push forward from the wide gate. I don’t think his 3yo form is overly strong but he may have improved.

(8) Wilmot Pass is up to this grade but I don’t like him at The Valley. He gets a long way back in his races and closes well, which he’ll likely do again. His one run here he was a moral beaten from barrier 1 in bm84 grade but he was going better than and will need plenty of luck again.

(10) Foxy Lady races well at this T/D with 2 wins and 2 thirds from 4 starts, but is another that generally gets back in the field and will need a big run to catch Imperial Lad.

I think Imperial Lad should be favourite. He’s proven he’s more than up to this grade, gets a beautiful run on speed and can only improve from the first up run. Keen.

 

Tip: (1) Imperial Lad- $9.00/3.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Imperial Lad, 2 units PLC Imperial Lad