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Randwick-Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 17th

Randwick-Kensington hosts eight races on Wednesday in what looks to be wet and wild affair. Joshua Reed is confident he has found some winners throughout the card.

RandwickKensington

Randwick-Kensington is the venue for midweek racing in Sydney with eight races on the card.

The rail is in the 2m position and it generally runs pretty fair, though with plenty of rain about and the potential downgrade to a heavy track, expect it to be on-pace for the majority and that runners will head towards the outside rail.

Joshua Reed has gone over the card and found a couple of bets, with his best bet being Flexible in Race 5.

 

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Race 1

Sky Racing Active Mdn Hcp (1550m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Sky Racing Active Mdn Hcp (1550m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

1. Rapids (5) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: C J Waller
3.73.53.43.63.753.4
2. No Question (4) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: John Thompson
22.051.821.962.1
3. Who Fancies You (7) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: Gary & John Moore
2326213125.526
4. Apollate (2) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
1212131612.812
5. Ossabuco (3) J: Tommy Berry (57kg) T: C J Waller
6. Tycoon Hallie (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: C J Waller
4.24.24.24.24.454.2
7. La Cabana (1) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: A J Cummings
2631313129.531
8. Rebel Rama (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: M C Conners

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 1:46pm (AEDT)

With Chris Waller having half the field, the odds are in his favour though I think there is one that can be a thorn in their side.

(2) No Question is a bloke who is getting better with each run as he steps up in distance. He was unsuited over the 1100m first-up but still made some good headway late in the race to indicate that further was needed. He then come back to Kensington over the 1400m where he once again went back and made some really good ground behind Nearly Fine to finish 3.7 lengths back in fifth, despite running the quickest final 400m split of the meeting. They stepped him back to provincial level over the 1500m and he started favourite as he finished second in a dog fight with another competitor. They beat the rest of the field by almost 6 lengths and our bloke ran the quickest splits of the race from the 800m to the finish, with his final 800m and 400m the quickest of the meeting. Although he comes back to metropolitan company, he is back against his own age and gets the tongue-tie and blinkers applied which is going to really give him that needed boost against more quality opposition. Providing he doesn’t sit too far off them; he is a tremendous play.

(1) Rapids is on the quick back-up and I expect them to go well. He was solid behind two promising gallopers last week in Jojo Was A Man and Yangtze Rapids, so he a top chance against this company.

(8) Rebel Rama looks the best of the rest.

Tip: (2) No Question $3.80

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN No Question FIXED

0

Race 2

Ghaiyyath New To Darley Mdn (1400m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Ghaiyyath New To Darley Mdn (1400m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

1. Akahata (3) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
354151414041
2. Asternishing (2) J: Pietro Romeo (57kg) T: M A Bell
91126151301181126
3. Coastwatch (4) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
1413131214.212
4. Cruel Summer (8) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (57kg) T: P M Perry
5. Dark Energy (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: James Cummings
273131313531
6. Maurice's Medad (11) J: Joshua Parr (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
5.55.5554.55
7. Oblique (1) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: P & P Snowden
3.73.63.63.83.83.5
8. Sing A Love Song (12) J: Tom Marquand (57kg) T: J A O'shea
3.83.73.73.83.73.6
9. Ba Ai Gei Ni (5) J: Robbie Dolan (55kg) T: P & P Snowden
1718171816.419
10. Chill (13) J: Regan Bayliss (55kg) T: A J Cummings
6666.56.26
11. Gin Martini (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (55kg) T: J G Sargent
272631343026
12. Poetic Impact (9) J: Ms Jess Taylor (55kg) T: P M Perry
465151716151
13. Youthfull (7) J: Andrew Adkins (55kg) T: Brad Widdup
2021262119.621

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 2:21pm (AEDT)

This is a very thin two-year-old race and the market is purely based around the barrier draw and not on form.

(8) Sing a Love Song goes on top for me despite the wide draw and would have ended up favourite had he drawn a gate. After running well behind the Silver Slipper winner Home Affairs in the Canonbury two starts ago, the Your Song colt then was one of the better runs of the runners outside the placings in the Skyline stakes, which was behind O’President, Hilal and Captivant. He drops massively in grade from a Group 2 to a maiden and he was always going to go back from the draw which is his usual pattern. He should be the favourite in my opinion

(7) Oblique raced well on resumption at Kembla Grange and finished the race off solidly enough, finishing less than a length back in third. This is a lot tougher, and I think they have gone up the wrong price. It won’t surprise me if he wins, though he isn’t for me at the price.

(10) Chill steps back in grade and must be a chance to run a better race.

Tip: (8) Sing A Love Song $4.20

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Sing A Love Song FIXED

0

Race 3

Anz Bloodstock News Mdn Plate (1100m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Anz Bloodstock News Mdn Plate (1100m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

1. Caesars Palace (1) J: Tommy Berry (57kg) T: A J Cummings
4.24.54.24.24.154.6
2. Curtis Island (7) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: R L Pearse
4151671017951
3. Double Ex (2) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: J C Deamer
2.82.72.72.92.952.6
4. Exercise (4) J: Tom Marquand (57kg) T: Donna Grisedale
1516161617.216
5. Lucky To Win (6) J: Tim Clark (57kg) T: Gary & John Moore
8.58.59108.28.5
6. Toronasaurus Rex (3) J: Pietro Romeo (57kg) T: M A Bell
7. Markievicz (8) J: Regan Bayliss (55kg) T: A J Cummings
2326263125.526
8. Zain's Girl (5) J: Tom Sherry (55kg) T: Mark Newnham
2.932.92.92.853.1

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

This does look a two-horse race on paper, though anything can happen with every single runner having some sort of gear change.

(3) Double Ex goes on top for me for a couple of reasons. Firstly, his run first-up was very good considering the pace was a touch above average which wouldn’t suit him as the leader and he over-raced around the 300m mark also, yet he was able to fight to the line behind the Black Opal winner and Slipper runner Kalashnikov and Raoul. The cross over nose band goes on which will help him in the run and he looks to get an easy lead once again. If they get into a dog fight up the straight, he has proven in his lone run that he fights well and with Nash Rawiller aboard, he will be fighting all the way to the finish.

(8) Zains Girl had the run of the race stuff at Wyong and tried hard to no avail back in third. The blinkers go back on again and the tongue tie goes on first time which are two notable gear changes. She will likely follow Double Ex and get the first crack at him in the straight. I wasn’t overly impressed with her run last start and she will need to improve to win this.

(1) Caesars Palace has been gelded and looks to resume here. Looks the best of the remaining runners.

Tip: (3) Double Ex $2.80

Betting Strategy: No Bet

0

Race 4

Vinery Stud (Bm72) (1100m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Vinery Stud (Bm72) (1100m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

1. Mr Mosaic (6) J: Reece Jones (61kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
2.72.82.92.92.752.7
2. Shadow Crush (5) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: Mark Newnham
3.63.53.53.63.43.5
3. Sir Elton (4) J: Tommy Berry (61kg) T: Adam Duggan
7.57.577.57.67.5
4. Kookabaa (3) J: Brandon Griffiths (60kg) T: Brett Thompson
1614121416.215
5. Ocean Emperor (7) J: Jason Collett (59.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
6. Ghostly (2) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: David Pfieffer
1110101011.210
7. Reiby's Regent (8) J: Tom Marquand (59kg) T: J G Sargent
232121312123
8. Up Trumpz (1) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: J M Cleary
141312121413
9. Absolute Legend (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55kg) T: L J Bridge
7.57.5787.37

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

This is a wide-open race here with multiple horses that can run well and win.

(5) Ocean Emperor returned well first-up, fighting hard to the line behind the talented Lost and Running. He managed to beat the rest of the field by over a length which indicates that some talent is there, just how much? Stepping up to 1100m suits but I think there is still a question mark over a wet track though he is a touch fitter going into this run which will help. He should get a nice cart into this race as there looks to be some speed and he should be able to camp off it before making her run in the straight.

(1) Mr Mosaic was scratched from last week and instead he has been entered here, back in grade. No trials does make it hard to go off but the stable generally produces them fit and firing first-up so fitness is unlikely to be an issue. Jury is out on a wet track though he will give himself every chance in front.

(4) Kookabaa will relish the conditions but it is just a matter of how forward he is first-up.

Tip: (1) Mr. Mosaic $3.20

Betting Strategy: No Bet

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Race 5

Hyland Race Colours (Bm72) (1800m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Hyland Race Colours (Bm72) (1800m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

1. Feel The Rush (7) J: Tom Marquand (62kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
67818110111181
2. Dalmatia Prince (2) J: Reece Jones (59.5kg) T: T S Howlett
1516161617.217
3. Dylan's Romance (3) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: M C Conners
4. Saffiano (1) J: Tom Sherry (58.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
5. Joigny (6) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: T J Bartley
88.58.58.58.68.5
6. Dinado (12) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: R & M Freedman
7.57.577.57.98
7. Flexible (8) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: James Cummings
3.53.53.33.43.553.5
8. Our Bambino (9) J: Sam Clipperton (56.5kg) T: R & L Price
414134514541
9. French Bonnet (5) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: Ms K Waugh
5.54.855.55.15
10. Van Gogh (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (55kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
4.54.24.24.444.2
11. War Baron (11) J: Glen Boss (54kg) T: David Payne
101010119.410
12. Lava (10) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: Edward Cummings
3131313427.534

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

I want to stick with (7) Flexible despite the disappointment last start. She got back last start at Gosford where it wasn’t the place to be and you were unable to make decent ground on the day either, so I am willing to put a line through the run. Before that she was impressive winning by 2.3 lengths at this track over the 1400m. She is up to 1800m here which looks like it suits, and her draw is okay based on her usual racing pattern. I think she can hit back today, despite never running at this distance before.

If for some reason Flexible is unable to handle the distance, (2) Dalmatia Prince looks a good back-up bet at the each-way price. He has placed in his two previous runs over the 1900m at Canterbury behind Mars and Silent Agenda respectively. Back 100m is okay but he loves the wet going which he will get here. He is drawn well and should sit in a nice position on the pace.

(10) Van Gogh handles the soft going and will make his own luck in front. Looks a knock-out hope.

Tip: (7) Flexible $3.50

Also Backing: (2) Dalmatia Prince $17.00

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Flexible FIXED, 0.5 unit WIN Dalmatia Prince FIXED

0

Race 6

Heineken (Bm78) (1400m)
4:40pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Heineken (Bm78) (1400m)
4:40pm (AEDT)

1. Global Quest (2) J: Tom Sherry (60.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
2019191818.218
2. Madam Legend (5) J: Brandon Griffiths (59kg) T: L J Bridge
666.56.55.96
3. Petronius (11) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Gary & John Moore
1.91.951.91.91.92
4. Relucent (10) J: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
1313151611.613
5. Safado (1) J: Jason Collett (58kg) T: K A Lees
2321262624.523
6. Julian Rock (9) J: Jean Van Overmeire (57kg) T: Jean Dubois
1313131413.812
7. Epic Dan (4) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: G D Hickman
2120212121.519
8. Amitto (3) J: Christian Reith (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
76.56.567.17
9. Napoleon Solo (7) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
354141514341
10. Pressure (8) J: Reece Jones (55.5kg) T: Brett Thompson
2121212121.519
11. Senor Toba (6) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: C J Waller

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 4:41pm (AEDT)

(11) Senor Toba is a gorgeous grey gelding who has only had the two race starts earlier this year, where both times he had significant ground to finish off well. Last start was impressive, circling the field at Moonee Valley to lengthen out to a 1.75 length win, which was very well rated. He has had a nice top up trial in preparation for this one though he does come back 200m whilst stepping up majorly in grade. If he can replicate his rating from his Moonee Valley win, he will go very close here.

(6) Julian Rock was held up last start and wasn’t fully tested over the concluding stages of the race. Before that he was impressive whilst fighting out the finish with Snitzify. Although he is up in grade, if he can replicate the run he had two starts ago, he will go close.

(3) Petronius is the best horse in this race, but he has to contend with an awkward barrier and will have to not race as keen as he did in his last outing. I expect improvement and a win won’t surprise me, but he is under the odds.


Tip: (6) Julian Rock $14.00/$3.80

Betting Strategy: No Bet

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Race 7

Tab (Bm72) (1550m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Tab (Bm72) (1550m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

1. Heart Of Puissance (12) J: Hugh Bowman (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.56.55.566.46.5
2. High Court (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (60kg) T: J N Englebrecht
272626413826
3. Chocolatier (14) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: J C Deamer
272626343026
4. Vienna Rain (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (59.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
88888.48.5
5. Glamour Fox (2) J: Keagan Latham (59kg) T: Clare Cunningham
1010101111.210
6. Champagne Vega (5) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: Joseph Ible
7. Black Duke (10) J: Tom Sherry (57.5kg) T: Richard Litt
54.84.84.84.455
8. Dashing 'N' Daring (13) J: Grant Buckley (56.5kg) T: Ms K Gavenlock
313434413241
9. Jack The Lad (11) J: Tom Marquand (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
1515161615.216
10. Signora Nera (9) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
7.58887.98.5
11. Solar Apex (6) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: C J Waller
888.59.58.37.5
12. Zarzou (7) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55kg) T: Annabel Neasham
415141514751
13. Dundee Lee (8) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: K A Lees
5.55.54.855.15.5
14. Ladies' Gem (4) J: Unknown (54kg) T: J & G Lee

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

Very tough race as you can see by the betting, but I have landed with (6) Champagne Vega here at each-way odds. The Lope De Vega gelding ran a solid race over the mile at Gosford last start, in what was a slow pace for him to work off. This didn’t overly suit but he still hit the line well regardless and should get much better speed here. He handles the wet well and is drawn well enough to sit in a nice midfield position.

(10) Signora Nera brings New Zealand form over to Australian shores and she is one who will handle the going. James McDonald rides, so you have to respect that, and I am very keen to see how she goes.

(7) Black Duke is coming back from Listed grade though he has never tackled this sort of distance. Breeding suggests he will be fine, but until he runs it, we are in the unknown.

Tip: (10) Signora Nera $7.00/$2.50 E/W

Betting Strategy: No Bet

0

Race 8

Robrick Lodge (Bm72) (1100m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Robrick Lodge (Bm72) (1100m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

1. Salina Dreaming (6) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: Angela Davies
2. Philizzy (2) J: Tom Marquand (60.5kg) T: A J Cummings
1920212122.523
3. Najmah (9) J: Tommy Berry (60kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2.72.62.62.72.552.6
4. Phemonoe (3) J: Hugh Bowman (60kg) T: James Cummings
5. Invincible Kiss (8) J: Reece Jones (59.5kg) T: Wayne Seelin
2121192123.521
6. Juan Diva (13) J: James Mcdonald (59.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
7. Selburose (15) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
7777.56.36.5
8. Tudor Music (5) J: Keagan Latham (58.5kg) T: G D Hickman
9. Either Oar (4) J: Glen Boss (57.5kg) T: Ms G Markwell
1616151618.218
10. Sweeping Statement (12) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: R J Quinton
2326212123.526
11. Van Giz (7) J: Jason Collett (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
12. All Hallows' Eve (14) J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg) T: J A O'shea
2.72.82.82.92.752.9
13. Close To Me (11) J: Robbie Dolan (56.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
14. Orpheum (1) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: R J Quinton
313434413941
15. Irish Angel (10) J: Unknown (56kg) T: C J Waller
1212141412.412

Odds Last Updated: March 17, 2021, 5:51pm (AEDT)

(1) Salina Dreaming goes on top for me if she runs. She was very good on resumption last preparation winning in brilliant fashion before heading to Kensington on a rain affected track. Usually, she handles it pretty well but, in the stewards report the rider stated she didn’t handle the conditions. She aggravated existing bumper abrasions on both hind legs, and this probably contributed more to her poor run. She is drawn well and gets in nicely with the claim but if the rain comes, they probably won’t run her here.

(3) Najmah is the back-up selection after a solid first-up run. Although she was favourite at a short price, she was first-up in a much harder grade. Her fitness may have just peaked a touch late, but she also lost a bit of momentum when she struck the running rail around the 400m mark. She will come on nicely from that run and although she goes up to 60kg, she is back in grade and has handled the wet track before.

(9) Either Oar can run a bold race at big odds

Tip: (1) Salina Dreaming $7.50

Also Backing: (3) Najmah $3.80

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Salina Dreaming FIXED, 1 unit WIN Najmah FIXED

Josh has been a racing fan for over 12 years and was down the local as soon as he was legal, blackbooking runners and having a punt most Saturdays. Since taking his racing more seriously, he has gone on to make his name known with goals of one day being apart of the game full-time. All of Josh’s work is proudly Powered by ratings2win.com.au

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