Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, September 11th

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

I’m siding with (6) Coolth on the quick backup here out of a good race last week at The Valley behind Degraves. He didn’t get much luck there, back along the rails, then tight for room when getting off heels out to the wider lanes, running the 2nd fastest last 400m of the race. For most of his career I think Coolth has been looking for a staying trip at Flemington which he now gets, on the backup with Prebble riding who I think will suit the horse because he can take some aggressive riding to get moving.

(1) Pondus is the huge query. We’ve seen him twice in Australia, once in the Bendigo Cup where he was desperately unlucky and should’ve won from a mile back, and the other in the Queen Elizabeth behind True Self. He’s coming off a 7L 2nd in a group 2 in Ireland 11 weeks ago which reads well enough, but he has to carry the 60.5kg, might have bigger targets in mind… there’s the potential to get him beat.

(3) Tooradin kept grinding away to win last start, his first go past 2000m. With that run under his belt they might go a bit quicker here.

Tip: (6) Coolth- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Coolth

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 1:06pm (AEDT)

(1) Artorius clearly looks very hard to beat. He should’ve won first up when having to cover ground and charging late to just miss. He’s always looked like a 1400m+ horse, and Flemington is going to really suit. The early price has gone which is the issue- he was $2.40 all in, $2.15 opening and is now $1.85 as I write. Struggle to see him being beaten because he’s just a better horse than these.

(2) Lightsaber is the danger- I thought his run in the McNeil behind Artorius was solid, working through the line well. He is a group 2 winner at this T/D in the Sires and 3rd up now, I think they go forward and own this race. He looks the exacta horse.

(7) Hilal was bad first up, there’s no denying that. A fast run 1200m around The Valley isn’t his set up, but he struggled. If he was running home in the fastest last 200m or even making ground late, maybe you could be enticed here, but he was barely holding his ground late. Best form last prep over 1400m would see him competitive, and I think Flemington will suit, he’s just hard to have off that run.

(5) Daily Bugle was a much better run in that race, hitting the line nicely. He didn’t measure up in Sydney as a 2yo but looks to have come back well and will appreciate the rise in distance.

All about Artorius here, he’s probably his right price, I’m not sure how much shorter he’ll get but he looks exceptionally hard to beat. If you were getting $2.20 late, he’d be closer to a 5 unit bet, just at the price he’s not a chips in job.

Tip: (1) Artorius- $1.85 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Artorius

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 1:41pm (AEDT)

Another race I find it hard to see (2) Ingratiating being beaten. His turn of foot first up in the Vain Stakes was electric, running the meeting’s fastest last 800/600/400m and he was very soft the last 50m. The form out of that race has been a touch questionable, but take the winner in isolation and he’s hard to knock. He’s won at this T/D, placed in a Blue Diamond and a Golden Slipper, maps out of trouble in a small field, which is how he won first up, he should be winning.

(3) Finance Tycoon the obvious danger, he did beat Ingratiating in the Maribyrnong Plate on debut, but Ingratiating started odds on and Finance Tycoon started $8. They met again in the Blue Diamond and started $8.50 and $41 respectively, Ingratiating beating him home. The win in the VOBIS Showdown was dominant at Caulfield but he didn’t beat much there despite the fast time. Has jumped out well for the new stable, but he has to come back and do it.

Tip: (2) Ingratiating- $1.95 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Ingratiating

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Crystal Bound is the horse to beat. She bolted in on debut in fast time when leading on a hot rails night at The Valley, then ran a narrow 2nd to Jamaea in the Percy Skyes in Sydney, who won the Furious Stakes last week, beating home Najmaty by 4L. The stable have a good opinion of her and despite the one jumpout, she’s got these covered for class I think.

(1) Dosh is 2/2 but her form is very questionable and both wins were at 1000m. Has to carry the full penalty with 58.5kg as well.

(4) Seradess brings different form to some extent. The dead heat debut with Cloudy is C grade form, the Morphettville win was dominant but beat a very average field.

(9) Flying Evelyn is probably a big price at $46 off her form last prep, running 2nd to La Roque down the straight. She was plain first up in a bm64 however.

(10) All About Eve beat Mac ‘n’ Cheese on debut and hasn’t done much wrong.

Crystal Bound looks the only one of these that could actually progress and win a group race, so class will take her a long way here.

Tip: (5) Crystal Bound- $3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Crystal Bound

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

Another favourite but I can’t see how they beat (2) Ayrton. The stable were wary he wasn’t completely ready to go first up but he was very good, reeling off some huge splits to win comfortably. He ran the 2nd fastest last 400m of the entire meeting, only bettered by superstar sprinter Masked Crusader. Impossible to see anything out of that race turning the tables with the run under his belt, he should just win from an ideal draw.

(1) Crosshaven was okay first up over 1200m and can improve, but you have to query his 3yo form, especially last prep where he did very little.

(8) King Magnus is airborne but meets Ayrton worse at the weights and had every chance to beat him last start.

(5) Cherry Tortoni likes Flemington but 1400m is short of his best, despite him supposedly being kept to the mile this prep.

Ayrton really should be closer to $1.50- I can’t see anything beating him here.

Tip: (2) Ayrton- $1.75 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Ayrton

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Has been a favourite’s card so far, but I’m looking away from them here. (13) Bonvicini looks a big price and has come in for some support. She ran 3rd in this race last year, beaten a length by Pretty Brazen and a handy enough mare called Arcadia Queen. First up the prep before she won at this T/D as a 3yo, beating Pretty Brazen. She has to be considered at $41 off those runs alone, despite the long break.

(14) Turaath is flying and keeps getting the job done by leading at good speeds. Jumps from a bm90 to group 2 level which has to be a big query. Will ensure a good gallop.

(1) Instant Celebrity has to carry the 59kg but was very good first up, working to the line behind Probabeel. She’ll get a long way back from barrier 13.

(2) Mystic Journey at her best would win this easily but we haven’t seen it for a long time. Even her win in the Stocks Stakes over Perfect Jewel would see her hard to beat, but she’s hard to trust.

Tip: (13) Bonvicini- $41.00/9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Bonvicini

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

This is very tough. (2) Jonker is coming off consecutive group 1 placing’s, 6L off Eduardo in the Galaxy and then a narrow 2nd to Vega One in the Kingsford Smith. He’s a new horse since being with the Gollan stable, and the recent trial behind Rothfire was excellent.

(1) Zoutori has the class and is a group 1 winner at this T/D in the Newmarket carrying 57kg. Flies first up and has won this race fresh the last two years. He’s bombproof and hard to knock. Even at the end of last prep he ran 4th in a VRC Sprint beaten 3.7L by Bivouac and even less by Nature Strip.

(12) Sirius Suspect was okay first up but does have a great 2nd up record and loves this T/D. He meets Zoutori 3.5kg better at the weights from the Newmarket.

(5) The Astrologist is flying and again so hard to knock- he just fights every time and is very hard to get past.

Tip: (2) Jonker- $4.60 at TAB

Also Backing: (1) Zoutori- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Jonker, 0.5 units WIN Zoutori

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview of the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, including speed map, selections and betting strategy, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/makybe-diva-stakes-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/ 

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

I hate the draw but (10) Secret Blaze is completely ready to win. I’ve had him as a horse to follow basically all prep and said that an open handicap at Flemington over 1700m would be ideal, which is exactly where he’s lobbed. His closing splits have been good all prep, the latest running the 3rd fastest last 600m of the race behind Ayrton, beaten 3.4L. I’d love to see a change of tactics or anything to suggest they’re going to be positive, because there’s not much speed and he could definitely push forward.

(14) Skyman was excellent first up at The Valley and goes well 2nd up. Barrier 1 perhaps not ideal for him but he’s a definite winning chance.

(8) Ziegfeld is becoming very costly but probably leads in a race with no pressure. Had every possible chance to get past No Effort last start and turned it up.

(4) Defibrillate can improve off the first up run in the Skyman race and is unbeaten 2nd up. Would’ve liked to see a bit more late at The Valley, but he’s got the class.

Tip: (10) Secret Blaze- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Secret Blaze