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Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, September 11th

The Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes headlines racing at Flemington on Saturday and Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card.

flemington racing tips

Group 1 racing today at Flemington  with the running of the Makybe Diva Stakes.

We’ve got star power scattered over the card with a number of short priced favourites that look very hard to beat.

The feature comes up in Race 8 and is supported by the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis Quality, the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes and four Listed contests.

Trent Crebbin has previewed the meeting and his best bet comes up in Race 5.

Scroll down to find his analysis and racing tips for every race at Flemington on Makybe Diva Stakes day!

Best Bet – Race 5 – (2) Ayrton

Best Value – Race 6 – (13) Bonvicini

WinnersBet

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Race 1

Tab Long May We Play Plate (2500m)
12:30pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tab Long May We Play Plate (2500m)
12:30pm (AEDT)

1. Pondus (3) J: Jye Mcneil (60.5kg) T: Robert Hickmott
3.6
2. One More Try (9) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Matthew Cumani
7.58889.18
3. Tooradin (6) J: Damian Lane (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.9332.93.33
4. Lunar Flare (1) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: G M Begg
8.588910.48.5
5. Prince Ziggy (2) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Jamie Edwards
6. Coolth (4) J: Brett Prebble (54kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
3.33.33.43.63.953.3
7. Killourney (8) J: Dean Holland (54kg) T: P A Preusker
5.55.55.55.56.35.5
8. Serenade The Stars (10) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
911017110110181
9. Blandford Lad (5) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
819171919371
10. Kings Full (7) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: Aaron Purcell
1415151617.815

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

I’m siding with (6) Coolth on the quick backup here out of a good race last week at The Valley behind Degraves. He didn’t get much luck there, back along the rails, then tight for room when getting off heels out to the wider lanes, running the 2nd fastest last 400m of the race. For most of his career I think Coolth has been looking for a staying trip at Flemington which he now gets, on the backup with Prebble riding who I think will suit the horse because he can take some aggressive riding to get moving.

(1) Pondus is the huge query. We’ve seen him twice in Australia, once in the Bendigo Cup where he was desperately unlucky and should’ve won from a mile back, and the other in the Queen Elizabeth behind True Self. He’s coming off a 7L 2nd in a group 2 in Ireland 11 weeks ago which reads well enough, but he has to carry the 60.5kg, might have bigger targets in mind… there’s the potential to get him beat.

(3) Tooradin kept grinding away to win last start, his first go past 2000m. With that run under his belt they might go a bit quicker here.

Tip: (6) Coolth- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Coolth

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Race 2

Exford Plate (1400m)
1:05pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Exford Plate (1400m)
1:05pm (AEDT)

1. Artorius (6) J: Luke Currie (59.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
1.551.51.551.61.561.5
2. Lightsaber (11) J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg) T: P G Moody
3. He's Xceptional (1) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
9.510111111.29.5
4. Tutukaka (12) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: A W Pike
1213131512.413
5. Daily Bugle (9) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
1819212618.419
6. Blushing Tycoon (8) J: Craig Newitt (57.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
262631312626
7. Hilal (5) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
6.56.55.56.56.16
8. Mr Mozart (4) J: Fred Kersley (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
1415141613.614
9. Vilana (2) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: James Cummings
10. Frontman (10) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: A & S Freedman
11. Golden Monkey (3) J: Jamie Mott (57kg) T: Clayton Douglas
616161716361
12. Turn It Up Tommy (7) J: Lachlan King (57kg) T: Denis Pagan
151126101101121151

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 1:06pm (AEDT)

(1) Artorius clearly looks very hard to beat. He should’ve won first up when having to cover ground and charging late to just miss. He’s always looked like a 1400m+ horse, and Flemington is going to really suit. The early price has gone which is the issue- he was $2.40 all in, $2.15 opening and is now $1.85 as I write. Struggle to see him being beaten because he’s just a better horse than these.

(2) Lightsaber is the danger- I thought his run in the McNeil behind Artorius was solid, working through the line well. He is a group 2 winner at this T/D in the Sires and 3rd up now, I think they go forward and own this race. He looks the exacta horse.

(7) Hilal was bad first up, there’s no denying that. A fast run 1200m around The Valley isn’t his set up, but he struggled. If he was running home in the fastest last 200m or even making ground late, maybe you could be enticed here, but he was barely holding his ground late. Best form last prep over 1400m would see him competitive, and I think Flemington will suit, he’s just hard to have off that run.

(5) Daily Bugle was a much better run in that race, hitting the line nicely. He didn’t measure up in Sydney as a 2yo but looks to have come back well and will appreciate the rise in distance.

All about Artorius here, he’s probably his right price, I’m not sure how much shorter he’ll get but he looks exceptionally hard to beat. If you were getting $2.20 late, he’d be closer to a 5 unit bet, just at the price he’s not a chips in job.

Tip: (1) Artorius- $1.85 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Artorius

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Race 3

Winning Edge Poseidon Stakes (1100m)
1:40pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Winning Edge Poseidon Stakes (1100m)
1:40pm (AEDT)

1. Shaquero (1) J: Craig Williams (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
2. Ingratiating (7) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: James Cummings
2.052.0522.0522
3. Finance Tycoon (3) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien
2.82.92.92.92.952.9
4. Jigsaw (5) J: Luke Currie (57kg) T: Ms C Alderson
88888.18
5. Ranch Hand (4) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: C J Waller
141415161514
6. Lloyd's Crown (8) J: Ms Linda Meech (56kg) T: Ms R Waymouth
2121262123.523
7. Dio (2) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
1921212121.519
8. Smytzer (6) J: Luke Nolen (56kg) T: P G Moody
515161615551

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 1:41pm (AEDT)

Another race I find it hard to see (2) Ingratiating being beaten. His turn of foot first up in the Vain Stakes was electric, running the meeting’s fastest last 800/600/400m and he was very soft the last 50m. The form out of that race has been a touch questionable, but take the winner in isolation and he’s hard to knock. He’s won at this T/D, placed in a Blue Diamond and a Golden Slipper, maps out of trouble in a small field, which is how he won first up, he should be winning.

(3) Finance Tycoon the obvious danger, he did beat Ingratiating in the Maribyrnong Plate on debut, but Ingratiating started odds on and Finance Tycoon started $8. They met again in the Blue Diamond and started $8.50 and $41 respectively, Ingratiating beating him home. The win in the VOBIS Showdown was dominant at Caulfield but he didn’t beat much there despite the fast time. Has jumped out well for the new stable, but he has to come back and do it.

Tip: (2) Ingratiating- $1.95 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Ingratiating

197348

Race 4

Cap Dantibes Stakes (1100m)
2:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Cap Dantibes Stakes (1100m)
2:15pm (AEDT)

1. Dosh (3) J: Jordan Childs (58.5kg) T: G M Begg
6.56.56.56.56.56
2. Glistening (6) J: Craig Williams (58.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
998.598.79.5
3. Tycoon Humma (9) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: John Mcardle
171717181817
4. Seradess (1) J: Luke Currie (57.5kg) T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh
887.58.57.77.5
5. Crystal Bound (4) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.33.33.33.33.453.3
6. Picarones (7) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: James Cummings
2626212621.526
7. Frost Flowers (12) J: Damien Thornton (57kg) T: A & S Freedman
2321262619.823
8. Ashema (10) J: Ms Linda Meech (56kg) T: Annabel Neasham
9. Flying Evelyn (2) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: A & S Freedman
2626262624.526
10. All About Eve (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: Andrew Noblet
1011121212.211
11. Pretty Woman (8) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: Matthew Dale
5.55.55.555.45.5
12. Asteroidea (11) J: Patrick Moloney (56kg) T: M D Moroney
515161614551

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Crystal Bound is the horse to beat. She bolted in on debut in fast time when leading on a hot rails night at The Valley, then ran a narrow 2nd to Jamaea in the Percy Skyes in Sydney, who won the Furious Stakes last week, beating home Najmaty by 4L. The stable have a good opinion of her and despite the one jumpout, she’s got these covered for class I think.

(1) Dosh is 2/2 but her form is very questionable and both wins were at 1000m. Has to carry the full penalty with 58.5kg as well.

(4) Seradess brings different form to some extent. The dead heat debut with Cloudy is C grade form, the Morphettville win was dominant but beat a very average field.

(9) Flying Evelyn is probably a big price at $46 off her form last prep, running 2nd to La Roque down the straight. She was plain first up in a bm64 however.

(10) All About Eve beat Mac ‘n’ Cheese on debut and hasn’t done much wrong.

Crystal Bound looks the only one of these that could actually progress and win a group race, so class will take her a long way here.

Tip: (5) Crystal Bound- $3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Crystal Bound

197348

Race 5

The Sofitel (1400m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

Race 5

The Sofitel (1400m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

1. Crosshaven (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
1211121210.412
2. Ayrton (6) J: John Allen (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
1.41.451.451.451.521.45
3. Harbour Views (3) J: Damian Lane (55.5kg) T: M J Williams
2121212120.523
4. Outrageous (4) J: Craig Williams (55kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
414141413041
5. Cherry Tortoni (7) J: Jye Mcneil (54.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
131211131211
6. Iconoclasm (1) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: D T O'brien
676761615171
7. Regardsmaree (5) J: Damien Oliver (54kg) T: Nick Ryan
9.598.59.58.29
8. King Magnus (12) J: Brett Prebble (54kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
1414151616.215
9. Never Again (11) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: C W Mcdonald
126126101101131126
10. Mr Money Bags (8) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: L Smith
11. Khoekhoe (2) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: Matthew Cumani
515151514951
12. Not An Option (13) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: M D Moroney
616761615771
13. Butter Chicken (10) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: G M Begg

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

Another favourite but I can’t see how they beat (2) Ayrton. The stable were wary he wasn’t completely ready to go first up but he was very good, reeling off some huge splits to win comfortably. He ran the 2nd fastest last 400m of the entire meeting, only bettered by superstar sprinter Masked Crusader. Impossible to see anything out of that race turning the tables with the run under his belt, he should just win from an ideal draw.

(1) Crosshaven was okay first up over 1200m and can improve, but you have to query his 3yo form, especially last prep where he did very little.

(8) King Magnus is airborne but meets Ayrton worse at the weights and had every chance to beat him last start.

(5) Cherry Tortoni likes Flemington but 1400m is short of his best, despite him supposedly being kept to the mile this prep.

Ayrton really should be closer to $1.50- I can’t see anything beating him here.

Tip: (2) Ayrton- $1.75 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Ayrton

197348

Race 6

Furphy Lets Elope Stakes (1400m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Furphy Lets Elope Stakes (1400m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

1. Instant Celebrity (13) J: Craig Williams (59kg) T: P Stokes
3.53.63.63.73.653.6
2. Mystic Journey (12) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: Adam Trinder
1413131314.213
3. Quantum Mechanic (6) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
232121262623
4. Only Words (8) J: Brett Prebble (58kg) T: C J Waller
717171715171
5. Still A Star (2) J: Luke Currie (57kg) T: Bill Ryan
65.55.55.56.15.5
6. Rich Hips (17) J: Craig Newitt (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
212121212023
7. Chica Fuerte (9) J: Fred Kersley (57kg) T: A & S Freedman
1019181817381
8. Zou Dancer (11) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: L & T Corstens
998.598.88.5
9. Tyche Goddess (14) J: Thomas Stockdale (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
201201151151151151
10. Annavisto (15) J: John Allen (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
11. Ripper Rita (16) J: Jamie Mott (55kg) T: G Eurell
1818161817.618
12. Don'ttelltheboss (4) J: Lachlan King (55kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
13. Bonvicini (5) J: Harry Coffey (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1818181817.419
14. Turaath (7) J: Damian Lane (55kg) T: Maddie Raymond
5.56665.26
15. Impecunious (10) J: Ms Linda Meech (55kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
343131312631
16. Love Sensation (1) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: K L Corstens
676761716161
17. Butter Chicken (3) J: Jordan Childs (55kg) T: G M Begg
1413131513.613

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Has been a favourite’s card so far, but I’m looking away from them here. (13) Bonvicini looks a big price and has come in for some support. She ran 3rd in this race last year, beaten a length by Pretty Brazen and a handy enough mare called Arcadia Queen. First up the prep before she won at this T/D as a 3yo, beating Pretty Brazen. She has to be considered at $41 off those runs alone, despite the long break.

(14) Turaath is flying and keeps getting the job done by leading at good speeds. Jumps from a bm90 to group 2 level which has to be a big query. Will ensure a good gallop.

(1) Instant Celebrity has to carry the 59kg but was very good first up, working to the line behind Probabeel. She’ll get a long way back from barrier 13.

(2) Mystic Journey at her best would win this easily but we haven’t seen it for a long time. Even her win in the Stocks Stakes over Perfect Jewel would see her hard to beat, but she’s hard to trust.

Tip: (13) Bonvicini- $41.00/9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Bonvicini

197348

Race 7

Lexus Bobbie Lewis Qlty (1200m)
4:15pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Lexus Bobbie Lewis Qlty (1200m)
4:15pm (AEDT)

1. Zoutori (12) J: Luke Currie (59.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
776.576.67
2. Jonker (4) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: T J Gollan
4.64.84.64.64.854.8
3. Lunar Fox (2) J: Brett Prebble (55.5kg) T: P A Preusker
343434343534
4. Splintex (11) J: Craig Williams (55.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
1312131511.612
5. The Astrologist (9) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: L & T Corstens
65.55.56.55.55
6. Roheryn (7) J: Damien Oliver (54kg) T: James Cummings
7. Greyworm (6) J: Fred Kersley (53.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
3131313129.534
8. Vassilator (3) J: Teodore Nugent (53.5kg) T: C Little & M Lindsay
677171717371
9. Away Game (10) J: Jye Mcneil (53kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
55555.25
10. Begood Toya Mother (5) J: Declan Bates (53kg) T: Daniel Bowman
676767716771
11. Express Pass (13) J: Craig Newitt (53kg) T: Nick Ryan
8.58.588.58.48.5
12. Sirius Suspect (8) J: Dean Holland (53kg) T: Saab Hasan
2626262621.526
13. Riddle Me That (15) J: Lachlan Neindorf (53kg) T: M M Laurie
232126262426
14. Too Good Too Hard (14) J: Harry Coffey (53kg) T: P Stokes
413441413841
15. Front Page (1) J: Lewis German (53kg) T: G M Duryea
1918192119.218

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

This is very tough. (2) Jonker is coming off consecutive group 1 placing’s, 6L off Eduardo in the Galaxy and then a narrow 2nd to Vega One in the Kingsford Smith. He’s a new horse since being with the Gollan stable, and the recent trial behind Rothfire was excellent.

(1) Zoutori has the class and is a group 1 winner at this T/D in the Newmarket carrying 57kg. Flies first up and has won this race fresh the last two years. He’s bombproof and hard to knock. Even at the end of last prep he ran 4th in a VRC Sprint beaten 3.7L by Bivouac and even less by Nature Strip.

(12) Sirius Suspect was okay first up but does have a great 2nd up record and loves this T/D. He meets Zoutori 3.5kg better at the weights from the Newmarket.

(5) The Astrologist is flying and again so hard to knock- he just fights every time and is very hard to get past.

Tip: (2) Jonker- $4.60 at TAB

Also Backing: (1) Zoutori- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Jonker, 0.5 units WIN Zoutori

197348

Race 8

Pfd Food Services Makybe Diva (1600m)
4:50pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Pfd Food Services Makybe Diva (1600m)
4:50pm (AEDT)

1. Sir Dragonet (8) J: Ben Allen (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3131343429.534
2. Fifty Stars (13) J: John Allen (59kg) T: Tom Dabernig
1919202116.819
3. Keiai Nautique (10) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: Matthew Smith
131313131313
4. Imaging (9) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: C J Waller
2019181915.819
5. Mount Popa (6) J: Fred Kersley (59kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
414141414141
6. Incentivise (3) J: Brett Prebble (59kg) T: P G Moody
3.83.83.83.83.953.8
7. Explosive Jack (1) J: Harry Coffey (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
353441413931
8. Johnny Get Angry (2) J: Lachlan King (58.5kg) T: Denis Pagan
1269110110112181
9. Aegon (4) J: Luke Currie (58.5kg) T: M Baker & A Forsman
8.58.5999.18.5
10. Mo'unga (11) J: Jye Mcneil (58.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
554.84.85.15
11. Colette (12) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: James Cummings
2121262621.519
12. Tofane (7) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: M D Moroney
3.83.93.53.83.654
13. Inspirational Girl (5) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: D T O'brien

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview of the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, including speed map, selections and betting strategy, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/makybe-diva-stakes-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/ 

197348

Race 9

Very Special Kids Pin And Win (1700m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Very Special Kids Pin And Win (1700m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

1. King Of Leogrance (5) J: Jye Mcneil (61kg) T: Robert Hickmott
616161615961
2. Persan (4) J: Luke Currie (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
181818191919
3. Warning (11) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: A & S Freedman
414141514751
4. Defibrillate (2) J: Billy Egan (60.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
98.599.59.68.5
5. Al Galayel (15) J: John Allen (59.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6. Young Werther (16) J: Craig Williams (59kg) T: D T O'brien
1616171815.615
7. Mongolian Marshal (12) J: Brett Prebble (58.5kg) T: S P Gower
2626262626.526
8. Ziegfeld (19) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings
6.57675.97
9. Furrion (7) J: Declan Bates (57.5kg) T: L Smith
1717161818.218
10. Secret Blaze (17) J: Luke Nolen (57.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
11. Sherwood Forest (8) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: A W Pike
676761615761
12. Good Idea (14) J: Harry Coffey (56.5kg) T: P Stokes
126126101126111151
13. Milford (3) J: Daniel Stackhouse (55.5kg) T: M D Moroney
2726212626.531
14. Skyman (1) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: C J Waller
2.82.82.92.82.752.8
15. Zayydani (13) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
343431313034
16. Long Arm (6) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
1616161715.816
17. Floating Artist (10) J: Unknown (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
7.57.57.57.57.47
18. Ballet Master (18) J: Teodore Nugent (54kg) T: C F Hyland
19. Kinane (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: M C Kent
515151414751

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

I hate the draw but (10) Secret Blaze is completely ready to win. I’ve had him as a horse to follow basically all prep and said that an open handicap at Flemington over 1700m would be ideal, which is exactly where he’s lobbed. His closing splits have been good all prep, the latest running the 3rd fastest last 600m of the race behind Ayrton, beaten 3.4L. I’d love to see a change of tactics or anything to suggest they’re going to be positive, because there’s not much speed and he could definitely push forward.

(14) Skyman was excellent first up at The Valley and goes well 2nd up. Barrier 1 perhaps not ideal for him but he’s a definite winning chance.

(8) Ziegfeld is becoming very costly but probably leads in a race with no pressure. Had every possible chance to get past No Effort last start and turned it up.

(4) Defibrillate can improve off the first up run in the Skyman race and is unbeaten 2nd up. Would’ve liked to see a bit more late at The Valley, but he’s got the class.

Tip: (10) Secret Blaze- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Secret Blaze

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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