Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 22nd

Good little race. Just leaning (6) Marine One who resumed for the new stable and bolted in with a maiden at Swan Hill in good time, with gaps through the field. He didn’t beat much but always showed good promise as a 2yo and reminds me a bit of Extreme Warrior who is now favourite for the Coolmore. He’s got the speed to land 1-1 and from there he’ll be hard to beat.

(5) Super Thief is the obvious danger, he’s 2/2 this prep and should’ve won by further last start after getting a late gap. He can roll forward and potentially lead which could definitely be an advantage tonight.

Tip: (6) Marine One- $2.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Marine One

He’s getting very short now but if (5) Thought Of That produces his last start win he’ll be very hard to beat. He’s burnt the punters, including myself, plenty before but has strung 2 wins together and gets Meech on, who piloted him to his best win as a 3yo. He should lead for fun and win.

(3) Skyman might be the danger, if he brings his 2nd to Floating Artist two back he’d be some hope and might be drawn in the best ground in barrier 1.

He’s just a bit too short for me now Thought Of That. I’d need even money to back him.

Tip: (5) Thought Of That- $1.85 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Keen on (5) Mahashakti. She’s unbeaten at Moonee Valley including 2/2 at this T/D and her recent form is good. She was enormous in the Benalla Cup two back and I’m fuming I didn’t follow up and back her in the Pinker Pinker plate on the drying track, where she was too good. She maps for a soft run behind the speed, is at peak fitness and will be hard to beat.

(1) Only Words comes here 4th up and was rock solid last start behind Sirileo Miss which is turning out to be a strong form line. The run prior she was unlucky in the Stocks and looks ideally suited up in trip. No real knocks other than the price discrepancy.

Tip: (5) Mahashakti- $3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Mahashakti

Basically the same race every year, which (3) Iconoclasm has remarkably won the last 3 editions of. He’s not going nearly as well this time in but always turns up in this race.

(1) So Si Bon looked home in this race last year and couldn’t go on with it. I think he’s going as well as ever and was a much better run than Iconoclasm last start, now meeting him 6kg better at the weights. 3rd up, blinkers on, my only query is a very firm track which worried him last year.

(7) Regardsmaree hasn’t lived up to the hype through the winter. Not sure how they ride him- he seems to get keen when they go forward and struggle when they go back. His 1.2L 5th to Harbour Views would put him right in this, I’m just not sure how he’s going.

(8) Wicklow Town brings the different form through the Seymour Cup. He’s going well enough to win this and could end up leading. Happy to have him as a winner.

Tip: (1) So Si Bon- $3.30 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) Wicklow Town- $6.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN So Si Bon, 0.5 units WIN Wicklow Town

If (5) Yulong Command can get into a handy spot he should be winning. He clearly comes out of the best form race, another 955m where he was only just run down late by Curran who is a good sprinter and since group 2 placed. He’s the best horse in the race and will be hard to beat.

(3) Rock Tycoon can pull out a good run in these races. He’s going okay and gets Meech on.

(6) Easy Single has upside and has won his last three, but this is a much harder 955m race.

(7) The Commoner goes well fresh and at this T/D, although a lot of his fresh form was with a different stable.

Tip: (5) Yulong Command- $2.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Yulong Command

Another case of if (2) The Gauch can get a good spot early he should be winning. I was against him last start dropping back to 1000m but he was far too good at $1.95. The run prior he just gassed out late in a very strong form race, and now he should be at his peak back up to 1200m. Ideally can sit OSL and from there he’ll be exceptionally hard to beat.

(5) Yulong Storm is one of mine and just keeps racing very well although I’m not sure The Valley will be his track getting back in the field.

(3) Fine Dane was well beaten by The Gauch last start and has never placed at 1200m so I just cannot see him turning the tables unless he got absolutely every favour.

(1) Hawker Hurricane a similar story, struggle to see him turning the tables on The Gauch but is a handy horse when right.

Tip: (2) The Gauch- $2.70 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN The Gauch

The Manikato Stakes is the headline of the night. Obviously not a vintage field with The Everest the week before but competitive nonetheless. Happy to be with (2) Jonker on top who has had excuses his last two runs. I don’t think he handled the straight first up and pulled up with a myriad of issues, and he was unlucky behind Masked Crusader last start when they took a sit and were held up. He only finished 3.2L away, and less than 2L off Lost And Running. Expect them to be aggressive here and either lead or sit OSL, keep them running and on a probable firm track he’ll take some running down.

The 3yo (13) Crystal Bound isn’t hopeless. She had the race shape against last start where they went quick early, then slowed down between the 800-400m by approximately 4L which allowed the swooper’s to come into it. I thought she stuck on very well for 3rd there at $4.40, draws barrier 2 here which either sees her lead or box seat, and her dominant debut win was at The Valley. The stable have targeted this race with her as they did Loving Gaby who profiles very similarly and I think she’s a much better price than Sneaky Five.

(6) Lombardo is one of mine and very progressive. His win here two back was dominant, the win last start at $1.80 was very comfortable at listed level and this is realistically only a group 2/3 class of race. He’ll sit just behind the speed and with even luck he’ll explode late.

(4) Savatoxl is the class and I’ve got no knock with him- the first up win was very good nabbing Dosh on the line, he’ll be fitter 2nd up, is a group 1 winner at 1200m and if he can get across ideally into the 1-1 he’ll take a power of beating.

Tip: (2) Jonker- $8.50 at TopSport

Value: (13) Crystal Bound- $15.00/4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Jonker, 0.25 units E/W Crystal Bound

Operation success, patient died last start with (7) Imperial Lad who was $14 into $4.40F and was just run down late to finish 2nd. He’s an obvious winning chance again and should get conditions to suit, the query is 1500m. I think he just runs 1400m but unsure about the extra 100m, however he does look to get another sole lead and could be very advantaged on the night.

(11) Akecheta ran well last start at Cranbourne, just run down late after setting a good tempo. She started $5 to the winner’s $41.

That winner was (8) Huntly Castle who was impressive but did get favours in run. He draws barrier 1 here and likely gets back which is a query. 

Tip: (7) Imperial Lad- $2.80 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Imperial Lad