Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, October 23rd

2YO race to kick off the day, with all bar two runners on debut.

(5) Secret Revolution is one of those on debut. He won his only trial and did it nicely. It was the quickest of three 2YO trials over the distance on the day. Drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 9 but I’d expect they roll forward here and I think he’ll be hard to beat.

The Freedmans won this race with Tiger Of Malay last year and they are represented by (11) Queen Of The Ball here. Also drawn awkwardly in barrier 12 for Rachel King and they’ll probably end up back in the field. He finished off fairly well behind Secret Revolution in the same trial and wasn’t under much pressure to do so.

(1) Contemporary started the short-priced favourite on debut at Flemington when beaten a nose over 900m. Draws ideally in barrier 3 here and deserves favouritism. Hard to beat, and race experience often proves pivotal in these juvenile races.

(12) Snitcat ran into deadends for the length of the straight on debut behind the very smart Coolongatta. Can run well here.

Tip: (5) Secret Revolution $4.85 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

The Highway is as open as it normally is.

(2) Kitzbuhel comes off a good first up run at Goulburn, leading and getting run down to finish 3rd beaten 1.75L. He normally improves second up and the step up to 1800m should also suit. Draws the inside for Tim Clark so it looks a perfect set up for him to jump, lead and be hard to chase.

(8) Lord Desanimaux was luckless and should have won two starts ago. He atone for that with a comfortable win over the mile last start. Draws awkwardly in barrier 13 today which makes it hard but he’s flying.

(15) Laughing Or Crying just had no luck at all last start, running into backsides for most of the straight. He was beaten less than a length in a similar race to this over the same track and distance three starts ago.

(7) Foodie King is another that had no luck last start and found the line well when he eventually got clear, but the race was well and truly over by then.

Tip: (2) Kitzbuhel $7.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Foodie King $6.50 Sportsbet

Value: (15) Laughing Or Crying $15 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Kitzbuhel, 0.5 units WIN Foodie King, 0.25 units WIN Laughing Or Crying

(5) Able Willie was impressive on debut on the Kenso, coming from back in the field to scorch home over the top and win by more than 2L. Gets back again from barrier 9 but looks progressive and should be hard to beat once again.

(2) Mazu has been well backed early. He has been racing in harder races than this all preparation. Gets the pacifiers on for the first time here and draws well. When these Snowden horses get backed they often aren’t far off.

(1) O’president drops out of the Roman Consul Stakes and should find this a bit more suitable. Was ridden with a sit in that race but I dare say from the inside gate we’ll see him ridden much more aggressively today. The query with him is the fact his two wins came on wet ground, which he won’t get here.

(7) Zarastro ran 2nd to Paulele on debut and returns on the back of two recent trials. Awkwardly drawn in barrier 8 but should be compteitive.

Tip: (5) Able Willie $2.20 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

This is the easiest race (3) Air To Air has run in for some time. First up last preparation she ran 4th in Group 3 company behind Seasons, Tricky Gal and Wandabaa. That sort of form would see her win this, but if you’re taking $3.90, it’s going to be a tough watch. She is ridden dead cold every time she races and is often left with way too much to do, hence she’s a winner of just one race from 16 starts.

(12) Pandora Blue bolted in at Port Macquarie last start to take her record to three wins from five starts. Should be very competitive.

(4) Media Starguest looks set for this race first up with two trials under the belt. My biggest concern would be the firm track given he’s never won from seven attempts on good ground. The trainer/jockey combo isn’t one I find often either.

(2) Undeniable is in good form and can run well again.

Tip: (3) Air To Air $3.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Setting myself up for pain here but I’ll be backing (4) Criaderas. His two trials have been a bit inconclusive to say the least, as he hasn’t been asked to do a whole lot in either of them. He’s got a terrific first up record though, and ran 0.2L 2nd to Think It Over first up last prep. That’s extraordinarily good form for a race like this and he really should be giving this a big shake.

(1) Emerald Kingdom is the horse the market has come for early. he won on his resumption at Eagle Farm, taking his record to 11 wins from 27 starts. He’s got an incredible second up record with four wins and a 2nd from six starts. Will jump and run with Tim Clark aboard, but he is giving a few handy horses weight. Can in, but I’ll be against.

(7) Starspangled Rodeo gets to 1400m third up from a spell, and under these circumstances last preparation he bolted in to win by 3L.

(8) Exoboom should find this easier.

Tip: (4) Criaderas $3.80 Sportsbet

Value: (7) Starspangled Rodeo $10 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Criaderas, 0.5 units WIN Starspangled Rodeo

(2) Snowfire is ready to do something third up today and he’s my best value bet on the card. He’s improved with each of his runs this preparation and third up is when he strikes, having won two from two. Brock Ryan goes on today to take 2kg off and although he’s likely to be back from barrier 12, I think he’s a decent each way bet.

We’ve got Kerrin McEvoy booked to ride both (3) Dancing Gidget and (9) Ma And Pa, so one of those horses will be scratched you’d think. Hopefully it’s Ma And Pa that comes out. Dancing Gidget had support first up and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her run a much better race if she takes her place here.

(6) Shibli has won his past two and maps to get a perfect run from barrier 5 with Tommy Berry aboard today. Rates highly again.

(8) Ruby Tuesday won three starts ago and hasn’t had any luck in her past two starts.

Tip: (2) Snowfire E/W $13/$3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN, 0.75 units PLACE Snowfire

Think this race lies between two horses.

(3) Zeyrek is ready to win his first race in Australia. The French import was good when beaten 1.5L in the Group 1 The Metropolitan last start. Should find this slightly easier, Tommy berry replaces Andrew Adkins and with any luck from barrier 11, he rates as the horse to beat.

The dry ground is the big key for (2) Cepheus. He’s had four starts in Australia now. He was absolutely hopeless in his two starts on soft ground, but his two runs on firm tracks have been good. The form behind Think it Over rates well and he’s in a similar boat to Zeyrek with a wide draw. Any luck and he goes close.

Tip: (3) Zeyrek $2.40 BlueBet

Saver: (2) Cepheus $6.10 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Zeyrek, 0.5 units WIN Cepheus

No surprise to see the money for (1) Hilal here in The Bondi. He’s a bit of an enigma but he found his best form in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes last start, when toppling Coastwatch. The step up to the mile is only going to suit Hilal more so he looks the horse to beat.

(2) Coastwatch was my best of the day when he got beat by Hilal and I just don’t see how he turns the tables today. He had the perfect draw, perfect run and still got beat by Hilal last start. Now he gets JMac off and an awkward barrier draw in 9. There’s also a query or two over his ability to run a strong mile.

(4) Cotehele was well backed to start $3.70 in that Stan Fox Stakes against Coastwatch and Hilal. Gets a perfect run from barrier 2 today and isn’t without hope of turning the tables.

(7) Dufresne looks the horse at value at double figure odds.

Tip: (1) Hilal $2.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Hilal

$2million The Invitation here, with a field of 12 fillies and mares to do battle. Anything could win this.

I’ll butter up again on (6) Entriviere here despite the wide draw. She came from last to be beaten less than a length in the Golden pendant last start, on a day where the rail was extremely hot and it was hard to make ground. The wide draw isn’t ideal again but with an even track, I think she wins.

(2) Nudge ran well in Melbourne first up and tends to improve second up and Waller will have her spot on for this.

(7) Vangelic beat Entriviere as mentioned two starts ago and you can forget she even went around last start, when the horse that was leading broke down and she copped the full backwash of it. Clark on, leads and takes catching.

(8) Rocha Clock can improve second up and up to 1400m with a good draw.

(10) Icebath is going really well but the concern with her is always the firm ground. (11) Tricky Gal was terrific first up and (12) Startantes is well suited back to 1400m with no weight on her back.

Open race!

Tip: (6) Entriviere $3.30 TopSport

Value: (8) Rocha Clock $18 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Can see this being a trainwreck but I think (9) Gravina is the best of the day in the last. We’ll just be hoping the track is fair and the inside isn’t inferior ground. She was backed as if unbeatable last start and just got too far back before flying home to be beaten a nose by Big Parade. Big Parade then came out and won again last weekend so the form looks strong. McEvoy replacing King is a positive, I think barrier 1 is a positive, and with any luck I think she wins.

(12) Fashchanel looms as the value in the race at $27 in my opinion. She flies fresh, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts when first up. Last prep she ran 2nd to April Rain and she’s trialled well ahead of her return. This is a good race but I think she can outrun her odds.

Tip: (9) Gravina $2.60 Bet365

Value: (12) Fashchanel $27 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Gravina, 0.25 units WIN Fashchanel