Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, October 23rd

2yo’s on debut, as I’ve said plenty of times, aren’t my forte. If (17) Nobel got a run he’d probably be hard to beat. He’s trialled well in Sydney, he’s a very expensive Exceed and Excel colt, Jmac on for Neasham, he ticks a lot of boxes.

(7) Equivocal has jumped out well at Cranbourne and draws nicely in barrier 3.

Tip: (17) Nobel- $5.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Happy to be with (10) Starry Legend if he runs here, which I think he probably will with 54kg compared to Friday night. I was with him first up at Mornington and he was simply too fast, well backed into $1.90. The form out of that race has been solid with The Billionaire cruising to a soft win in Adelaide and Yulong Defence also winning his next start. Drawn barrier 2, he’ll be leading and at 1000m he’ll be hard to run down again.

(2) Free Of Debt is on the quick backup from the Caulfield Sprint where he stuck on okay for 4th in a good race. He’s one of the only other 1000m horses in the field and in form, so I’m happy to save on him.

(8) Mossman Gorge isn’t hopeless. He comes out of a pretty good race behind Lord Olympus and Varda at Warwick Farm. He ran a great race in the 955m final won by Sisstar here earlier this year and has only missed a place once from 6 starts when 2nd up.

Happy with the prices to back Starry Legend, break even on Free Of Debt and have something on Mossman Gorge.

Tip: (10) Starry Legend- $3.10 at Ladbrokes

Value: (8) Mossman Gorge- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Saver: (2) Free Of Debt- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Starry Legend, 0.25 units WIN Free Of Debt, 0.25 units WIN Mossman Gorge

(7) Dream Queen is a big price here for a horse that started $1.75 last start in a strong form race. She raced 3 wide no cover at her first run in Australia at Mornington and pulled up with a slow recovery so I can forgive that. Derive and Aerovictory have both come out of that race and won at Geelong, she gets a beautiful map from 3 and in a very even race she’s a bet.

(8) Our Heidi has only had one start where she ran 2nd to Ranveer which was strong form at the time. Outside the winner that race was a bit average but she may have improved. Don’t love barrier 1 for her but the Stokes camp are turning the corner.

(1) Robodira was one of a few very unlucky runners in the race won by Sneaky Five. Tricky map from barrier 8 but if she doesn’t get too far back she’ll be hard to beat.

Backing Dream Queen 1×3 in a tough race, saving Our Heidi.

Tip: (7) Dream Queen- $17.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Saver: (8) Our Heidi- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Dream Queen, 0.25 units WIN Our Heidi

Interesting race with (9) Dosh looking to cross and lead getting to 1200m for the first time. She obviously stands out given she led for 1099m of the 1100m last start and was only beaten by Savatoxl, who is the favourite for the Manikato Friday night. She had the 51kg and an uncontested lead there but her last 200m was the race slowest by a fair margin, and she fell in a hole very late first up at Flemington too. 1200m has to be a query, but if she can find the front again she’ll look the winner.

(8) Mornington Glory can bounce back. His run in the Danehill was just fair and I think that form race is very questionable, but he was only beaten 3.5L and back around a bend should help. His trial/debut win were very good and he gets a lovely map here just off the speed.

(4) Generation hasn’t exactly lived up to his early 2yo form, with two solid runs this prep. He did sit wide last start at this T/D but that race wasn’t great. Does get Jmac on here and can improve.

Dosh will look the winner in the straight, it’s whether she runs out 1200m or something grabs her on the line again, and Mornington Glory has the map to do just that.

Tip: (8) Mornington Glory- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mornington Glory

Another very average and even fillies race. (2) Heresy was an absolute horror show last start in the Thousand Guineas when very well backed. She never saw clear air and was eased right down at the 200m mark. She’s still yet to tick the 1600m box- that run was no guide but I thought she was all out at the end of 1400m in a weak race prior so I have to be against at $3.30 here.

(3) Fortunate Kiss was also unlucky in the guineas and worked home okay. She draws wide here and likely gets back but will be fine at the mile.

(6) I Like Big Putts was a very hidden run last start. I was with her in the race won by Rhinoceros and she was under pressure a fair way out but kept coming until about the 170m mark where the winner lays back into the fence and halts her momentum. I don’t know if she would’ve won, but it was just as she was starting to pick up. If Childs can cross and lead or sit OSL she can run a race at a price.

(8) Mokolua was very plain last start in the Ethereal but that was a very messy race. Her run prior in the Edward Manifold when wide wasn’t bad and I like her back to 1600m. Gets Jmac on, draws soft, she can improve.

Tip: (6) I Like Big Putts- $31.00/7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) Mokolua- $19.00/5.00 at BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W I Like Big Putts, 0.25 units E/W Mokolua

Was originally keen on Embolism but he’s come out.

(4) Buffalo River repaid the faith last week, finally striking a wet track and leading all the way. That’s clearly the key to him- if we’re on a soft 6 or worse I’ll have to back him again. Should be able to boot up and hold the lead from barrier 1 and The Valley should suit. The scratching of Second Slip should see him lead by himself.

(5) Elephant was a bit plain in the Toorak after copping a few bumps. He did start much shorter than Embolism and meets him better at the weights but he’s been up a long time and that could’ve been a gut buster.

Tip: (4) Buffalo River- $3.25 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Buffalo River

Very tricky race. No doubt (1) Forgot You is easily the best horse in the race having stormed home in the Caulfield Guineas to be beaten 2.9L by Anamoe. He’s been crying out for 2000m his last two runs and gets that here, but he’s also going to get back likely to last, and his grand final is the derby. At first glance I thought he’d be a complete moral, but he reminds me of Cherry Tortoni in a race on All Star Mile day over this T/D who got too far back at $1.90 and couldn’t get into it.

(10) Villaden piques my interest. He bolted in on debut before taking on the older horses last start at Ballarat at $2.40 and racing greenly. I love the blinkers going on, and Olly from barrier 5.

(14) Blackcomb was a moral beaten after being smashed into $1.75 in Adelaide last start. It was an ugly watch and I think she’s a handy staying filly. The run prior she should’ve finished a touch closer to Barb Raider who I still rate as the Oaks horse to beat. She also gets blinkers on first time but barrier 2 could be a bit sticky.

(9) Spirit Of Gaylard did well to get the maiden win first up at Bendigo. He was luckless on debut over the winter and looks to have plenty of talent. Wide draw makes it a big tricky but he’s got upside.

Forgot You very hard to beat but there’s a bit against him. Look for him to attack the line and have the flashing light Derby run and potentially Villaden or Blackcomb to get the right run.

Tip: (10) Villaden- $14.00/3.60 at TopSport

Also Backing: (14) Blackcomb- $9.50/2.70 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Villaden, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Blackcomb

I’m with (10) Pondus here. He went out at a very fast tempo first up in the Bart Cummings (18L above avg to the 800m) and stuck on well for 5th, beaten 2.5L. Tralee Rose has come out of that and won the Geelong Cup, it was a true staying test and should top him off ideally for this. Last time he was in Aus he was a get back grinding stayer but he showed great speed there and drawn barrier 3 here he should be right on speed.

(12) Floating Artist was backed as if unbeatable in the Coongy and wasn’t given the best ride on speed, going too slow and allowing Duais and those behind to sprint past him. He stuck on well and clearly has talent. If he can get across into a good spot early he should relish a better tempo.

(5) Secret Blaze was disappointing in the Coongy but does like The Valley and would be a chance off his JRA Cup win.

Tip: (10) Pondus- $4.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Pondus

For my runner-by-runner preview of the Cox Plate, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/cox-plate-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

I like (9) Grace And Harmony here. Both runs in Sydney this prep have been very good, the latest when wide only beaten 1.6L by Mirra Vision. 3rd up here, draws well, Thornton is in good form and she just looks overs at double figures.

(6) Starelle draws awkwardly in barrier 2 but also looks ready to win 3rd up. She closed off well behind Sirileo Miss on Thousand Guineas day after a good run 1st up. She drops 5kg and if she gets the gaps she can win.

(3) More Prophets ran very well in the same race as Grace And Harmony last start. That was her first go at a mile and she ticked the box, but I think Grace And Harmony has more improvement to come.

(5) Magna Bella can roll forward with Meech on and comes through the Stocks. Not sure that’s the A1 lead up but she’s racing well.

Tip: (9) Grace And Harmony- $11.00 at TopSport

Also Backing: (6) Starelle- $7.50 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Grace And Harmony, 0.5 units WIN Starelle