Warrnambool Racing Tips: Tuesday, May 4th

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 11:22am (AEDT)

Always tough for a jumps debut. I want to side with (4) Hey Happy for the relatively new but sure to be powerful trainer/jockey combo of Payne & Kuru. His flat form has been solid and I thought the jumps trial here was quite good, jumping cleanly and working to the line well enough for 3^rd.

 

(3) Field Of Lights has the best true staying flat form and generally races over 3000m. Won a 2400m jumps trial at Cranbourne and will be strong late, especially if it’s truly run.

 

(12) Aloft is a big price if he makes the field. He’s had two jumps starts back in 2019, starting odds on in a maiden and failing, and then starting $3.20 in a bm120 hurdle and running well for 4^th, actually beating home Flying Agent, who is the even money favourite for the Brierly. His flat form has been average this time in but in a past life he was a very good stayer, and he has run 2^nd in two jumps trials recently. Needs 2 to come out but I’ll definitely be on if he gets a run.

Tip: (4) Hey Happy- $5.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Hey Happy

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 12:02pm (AEDT)

(9) Under The Bridge makes his jumps debut and is going well on the flat, having recently run a distant 2^nd over 2700m to a handy stayer in Mystery Island. The jumps trial was solid and the Wilde camp always have to be respected at the Bool.

 

(2) Annunciate looks a strong danger. He’s a handy flat horse that has been looking for the jumps now, and I really liked his jumps trial. He sat 2^nd and I loved how he took the last jump especially, sprinting quickly off that to win the heat well. Douglas sticks and I think he’ll run well.

 

(10) Wil John was in Under The Bridge’s trial and wasn’t asked for much of an effort. Have to respect Pateman and Maher/Eustace which is a formidable combo.

 

(1) Ablestock another that has to be respected given the Kuru/Payne combo.

Tip: (9) Under The Bridge- $4.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (2) Annunciate- $4.65 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Under The Bridge, 0.5 units WIN Annunciate

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 12:42pm (AEDT)

(8) Mawaany Machine is easily the horse to beat- his run last start on the flat is far better than any of these can produce, beaten 2.6L by Amade at Flemington. The jumps trials have been good and he’s sure to be popular.

 

(5) Gravistas looks the danger and perhaps the better play. His jumps trial 6L win was good and his last run on the flat was certainly sound enough, 3.5L off Chequerboard on Friday at Cranbourne.

 

(6) Jimmy’s Secret has trialled well, winning two from two. Flat form isn’t quite as good as a couple of these but he should run well.

 

Favourite hard to beat off the flat run but at $1.80 on his jumps debut I’m just a bit wary.

Tip: (5) Gravistas- $4.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 1:17pm (AEDT)

First of the flat races. (3) Finneas has jumped out very well. The draw hurts but he was hard held and made up a stack of ground at Terang. This would’ve been the set play by Aaron Purcell, a local trainer, and I think he’ll be flying late.

 

(8) Bubbly Lass resumed with a big run at Pakenham, making good late ground. Stays at 1200m but she’s got the good runs on the board and can land closer from barrier 3.

 

(9) Heleva Deel was only beaten 3.5L on debut, a race in which Litchfield County ran 2^nd. May want a bit further than 1200m.

Tip: (3) Finneas- $4.85 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Finneas

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 1:47pm (AEDT)

(2) Cardigan Queen clearly on top here. The debut run was huge, running the fastest last 400/200m of the meeting on a Wednesday at Bendigo. The leader won and Cardigan Queen had practically no hope from where she was. My slight query is the drop back from 1100m to 1000m, but she draws better in barrier 3 and if she lands midfield, a repeat of her finishing effort last start will win this.

 

At huge odds I want to have something on (3) Bullzeye Beauty from the Symon Wilde stable. The vision of her Camperdown jumpout is awful so I have absolutely no idea how well she went, but she wasn’t far away and she’s Wilde’s only runner in the race. Bowditch has a 68.8% POT for Wilde this season, and Wilde has a 15.7% POT on his home track. She’s a massive price to find out at $41.00, especially if the money is on.

 

(7) New York Baby has jumped out the best of the newcomers and gets Olly on debut.

 

(9) Rioyuki is trained here and won a jumpout well. Another to be very wary of the market.

Tip: (2) Cardigan Queen- $4.80 at Bet365

Value: (3) Bullzeye Beauty- $41.00/11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Cardigan Queen, 0.25 units E/W Bullzeye Beauty

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 2:22pm (AEDT)

The feature of the day, back over the jumps, is the Brierly Steeple Chase. (3) Flying Agent has been smashed in betting coming off an easy win with 73kg over Britannicus at Hamilton. His jumps start prior was a 19L win and he drops 8kg in weight, down to the minimum 65kg. Hard to beat.

 

(1) Bit Of A Lad has the runs on the board- his last two runs have been dominant jumps wins by 6L and 8L. Has to carry the 70kg but looks the main danger.

 

(6) Georgethefifth is an interesting runner. He started $3.30 favourite against Bit Of A Lad in the Australian Steeple last year over 3900m but failed to finish and was pulled up. He came out after that and started $2.70 and bolted in by 9L and did narrowly beat Bit Of A Lad home in a recent trial.

 

(4) Lucques was a distant 3^rd to Yensir and Zed Em at Oakbank and ran 2^nd last start at Pakenham.

Tip: (3) Flying Agent- $2.20 at Bet365

Value: (6) Georgethefifth- $19.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Flying Agent, 0.5 units PLC Georgethefifth

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 2:57pm (AEDT)

At the time of writing, (1) Heart Of Puissance is still in the field but he’s made the Cup field so I’d highly expect him to be saved for Thursday. His run in the Terang Cup was huge in what honestly looked like a bit of a barrier trial for the Bool- he wasn’t given every chance and if he lines up here he’ll be very hard to beat.

 

(4) Savvy Lad has struck form in his last two, racing on speed and getting the job done. Wet tracks seem to be the key to him and he maps for another good run on speed from barrier 5.

(14) Minola gets in with 52kg and won over this T/D two back under a sweet ride from Tatum Bull. Draws wide here but the drop back in trip should be fine and she gets 8kg off the topweight.

 

(12) Cernan was disappointing last start but got back in a race not really run to suit. The start prior he was a narrow 2^nd to Green Ivy who has run well again since.

 

With the expected scratching, Savvy Lad goes on top but not a betting race.

Tip: (4) Savvy Lad- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 3:32pm (AEDT)

Very interesting runner in the form of import (9) Fifth Position who has some very strong overseas form. It was a while ago but he boasts a win over star Godolphin sprinter Space Blues, as well as a 3.25L defeat to Lord North, who is one of the best horses in the UK. From reports he loves wet ground, the 1550m trial was good and suggests they’ve got him ready to go, and Lane booked for Price/Kent is very interesting.

 

(12) Duke Of Plumpton was very good off a break at Caulfield and the wetter the better for him. Hasn’t won in a while but off his run first up he should be right in this.

 

(7) Chantrea was caught wide first up at Bendigo and ran very well, but this is a pretty big step up from a restricted mare’s race behind The Stylist. Olly on for Smith at the Bool is formidable but I think she’ll need to improve again.

 

(13) Prince Ziggy is going better than the form guide would suggest and will outrun his SP again. Rough place chance.

Tip: (9) Fifth Position- $6.10 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Fifth Position

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 4:02pm (AEDT)

Keen to be with the Lindsey Smith trained (8) La Vina and I think it’ll be a classic uncle Lindsey set play here. She brought some very handy WA form over to Victoria and backed it up with a dominant win at Ballarat over 1200m in February, with Legend Of Zorro in 3^rd who won three in a row after that. This is a step up but she’s jumped out well, gets Olly and should go close.

 

(5) Realeza races very well on wet ground and resumed with a good win at Geelong. Hasn’t done much wrong in his career and should acquit himself well again.

 

(9) Ruler By Choice was disappointing at Pakenham last start and has been freshened since then. The start prior she started $2.35 and led all the way to beat Governor Landy, who did run 2^nd at big odds to La Vina when they met.

 

(15) Shezawitness generally races well fresh and was good in two races last prep.

Tip: (8) La Vina- $3.55 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN La Vina

Odds Last Updated: May 4, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Very tough finish. (8) Mckeever was very good winning on debut, racing three wide on speed but still running the meeting’s fastest last 600/400m on a Wednesday meeting at Bendigo. The 2^nd horse, King Dick, absolutely bolted in at Kyneton on Tuesday by 5.5L and whilst this is much harder, I’m happy to be with the Wilde horse.

 

(9) Sacred Palace is having his first run in Australia and should appreciate every drop of moisture in the track, being by Sacred Falls. Olly rides for L Smith again although the NZ form isn’t amazing and the jumpout was quiet. Very wary.

 

(11) Show Some Decorum probably should’ve won first up over 1000m in a class 1 at Mornington. Some of his form last prep around the likes of Nicolino Vito and Deep Speed reads well for this and Lane takes the ride here.

 

(14) Zoupino has never placed 2^nd up but went very well first up and loves wet ground. She ran 2L 3^rd to Bons Abroad on a heavy 10 last prep which reads well for this.

Mckeever has been saved for later in the carnival. Sacred Palace has been hammered in betting and should appreciate the heavy track, but is short enough now.

Tip: (9) Sacred Palace- $3.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet