Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, March 13th

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 12:16pm (AEDT)

Surprised that (1) Fanciful Toff isn’t favourite here. He put the writing on the wall 2^nd up after closing strongly over 2040m and won with something in hand at this T/D 3^rd up. He got a lovely run there but should do again from barrier 2 and the Maher/Eustace stayers often get better into their campaigns, so he should be further improved 4^th up.

 

(5) Playoffs got a long way back in the same race and ran on well. He meets the topweight better at the weights but was beaten 3.4L and I think the 2500m really sees him out, given he had every chance two back and faded late in a weaker race at the T/D.

 

(9) Rising Archie plummets in the weights and didn’t have the best of luck at Sandown last start. He draws well and should be around the mark.

 

(4) Aurora’s Symphony has beaten Rising Archie twice now and will hold a spot from barrier one. He’s flying but is getting up in the weights.

 

Tip: (1) Fanciful Toff- $4.60 at Unibet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fanciful Toff

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

Tough one for the 2yo’s. (7) Scorched Earth ran 2^nd to Arcaded in the Blue Diamond Prelude before absolutely demolishing a Murray Bridge field when leading all the way. The times are average, and she got the perfect run but the 2^nd to Arcaded is good form.

 

(4) Dio was well backed on debut in a stronger race behind Home Affairs but didn’t really come into it on the soft track. He’s a longer price now and the track should still be fairly firm at this stage.

 

(8) Glitter ‘n’ Gold missed the kick on debut but rounded them up nicely at Ballarat, running the day’s fastest late splits. Willo sticks and if she jumps better, she’s a big chance.

 

(5) Wizard Of Oz is another Sydney 2yo who didn’t finish off on debut. He could improve on a drier track.

 

Very tough race, just having something small on Dio off that strong backing on debut.

 

Tip: (4) Dio- $8.20 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Dio

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

Thought this was an easy two bet play. (3) Irish Flame looks set to peak 3^rd up at 2040m- he stuck on well first up at 1400m behind Regardsmaree and Buffalo River and again stuck on okay in the Blamey Stakes after working way too hard early, sitting 2^nd in run (albeit a few lengths off the leader) but still only finished 3.8L off Star Of The Seas. That race should top him off beautifully for the extra trip, where he’s never finished outside of the top 2, and any rain would only enhance his chances. He can go forward and be hard to beat.

 

(2) Too Close The Sun has been the early firmer which is understandable. He was outclassed and out sped in the Futurity, which is fair enough, but his 2^nd up record is outstanding with 3 wins from 4 starts and he has bolted in at this T/D with Neindorf aboard. The big jump in trip is an obvious query but he did race over summer and L Smith should have him ready. He’ll lead and be hard to run down.

 

(1) Persan was a marvel last prep, basically in work for most of the year and culminating with a 5^th placing in a Melbourne Cup. He’s finally had a decent spell and I just think he’ll need the run here from the wide gate.

 

(4) Blenheim Palace was solid last start on pace behind Defibrillate but I’d just love to see him at 2400m now. Can win, especially if he rolls along and really gets them chasing because he’s got no turn of foot.

 

Irish Flame the better result but at the odds I think we can back both and get a result.

 

Tip: (3) Irish Flame- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Too Close The Sun- $3.70 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Irish Flame, 1.5 units WIN Too Close The Sun

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Great race but very tough with a few horses first up and plenty of form lines. I thought (1) Dollar For Dollar could run a big race first up. He’s got an outstanding first up record with 3 wins and two 2nds from 6 starts, and first up last prep off 62 weeks off he was only 1.6L off Diamond Effort in a group 2. He handles all ground and maps to sit just behind the speed with Kah on.

 

(3) Ancestry is the obvious. He couldn’t sustain the pressure in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 3.4L off them in 15^th. It was a touch disappointing really given he’d been set for that race, and perhaps he’d prefer a softer track which he’ll likely get. He’s 4/7 at the trip and unbeaten at the track so he’s got obvious claims.

 

(7) Pandemic will be flying late from the back. His win at Caulfield two starts ago was very good, ticking the 1200m box, and he charged late behind Fabergino at Flemington in a good effort. He’s trialled well since and if he can be within striking distance he’ll go close to running them down.

 

(2) Age Of Chivalry generally improves with a run but has had three jumpouts leading in and the stable are quite bullish about how he’s going. He’s better over a touch further but wouldn’t shock at all.

Tip: (1) Dollar For Dollar- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dollar For Dollar

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Just can’t see how they beat (1) Cherry Tortoni here. Both runs this prep have been enormous and he’s had the perfect set up to step up to 2040m 3^rd up and win. If he drew a gate, he would’ve won the guineas comfortably, making up an obscene amount of ground from last, he’s 1/1 at this T/D (beating the Derby winner by 7L) and any rain would only help. In the smaller field he won’t be as far off them and unless Billy really gets put in a pocket, I can’t see how he loses.

 

(2) Young Werther did beat Cherry Tortoni home in the Derby but I’m not sure about his two runs this prep. He was run off his feet first up at 1400m in a brutally run race and was just fair last start at Caulfield when still doing a lot wrong. He ran on okay but was still beaten 2.6L. A wet track if we do get one will be no issue for this Tavistock gelding but I’m just not sure how well he’s going.

 

(9) Parure got the win for us last start over Young Werther after getting a beautiful run in transit. Lane should go forward again and she’s building a nice record.

 

(3) Grandslam is some hope if they actually go forward, which he hasn’t done this prep.

 

Cherry Tortoni should just win, and I’m surprised he’s so close to even money. I thought he’d be $1.70 and will be betting accordingly.

Tip: (1) Cherry Tortoni- $1.95 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Cherry Tortoni

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Incredibly open race, and the final of the limited whip rule series. For that reason I think jockeys could make even more of a difference here. (2) Indispensable goes on top. He was 1300m up to 1600m last start and had a torrid run, 3 wide no cover on speed. He kept kicking and only went down by a head and goes Tatum Bull to Olly here which is huge. Think he’s one of the better value chances of the day.

 

(5) Intellective won that race and was in an awkward spot early before getting the split. He meets Indispensable at equal weights, but as I said Olly replaces Bull with Indispensable rather than claiming. Intellective is 3/6 at the mile and if he can slot in with cover will run very well.

 

(3) Irish Playboy comes out of the Pakenham lead up and should be respected. He’s only had 8 starts and has won his last two, but the draw hurts.

 

(1) Astraeus wasn’t far away in that race and should definitely improve 2^nd up at the 1600m.

Tip: (2) Indispensable- $7.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Indispensable

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

Found this very tough. (6) Reuber was dominant at Werribee 2^nd up in a maiden. His run at Flemington last prep over 1800m was very good when wide no cover. The draw hurts but he’s progressive.

 

(4) Narvaez was good two back behind Parure which is good form but struggled and finished last against that filly over 1800m last start. Gets Kah on from barrier one so he should find the front.

 

(2) Conceited was tight for room last week behind Cumberbatch and Annavisto with 60kg. Not sure what to make of him but he’s not a horse I want to back as favourite given his only win was on debut as a 2yo.

 

(10) Real Sensation exploded late at Stawell to win a maiden by 4.5L as the $1.30 favourite and can progress.

Tip: (6) Reuber- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Reuber

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview of the All Star Mile, please follow the link:

All Star Mile Runner-by-Runner Preview

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 5:22pm (AEDT)

(5) Cordilla was desperately unlucky at this T/D first up last prep, badly held up and 1.75L off How Womantic. I think she’s the best horse in this race and it just depends on where she gets to on the map, drawn barrier 9. If it’s midfield with cover, getting to the middle of the track, she’ll be very hard to beat. If she’s last, she’ll struggle.

 

(10) The Billionaire led all the way at Wangaratta last start in an impressive win. He drops 5kg down to 53.5kg and gets J Kah who likely leads, which is a very profitable set up. Whether the horse is up to a couple of proven mares is the question.

 

(4) Vongole was back and held up at The Valley first up but ran on strongly behind Open Minded for 2^nd. He probably gets back to near last from the gate but if they’re getting off the fence he’ll run well. A wet track is some concern.

 

(3) Cielo D’oro next best who is 2/3 at this T/D and handles all surfaces.

Tip: (5) Cordilla- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Cordilla